Take a look at the assessed values of the parcels in that box. I get that they can feel under utilized, but to generate redevelopment you need a rather large spread from current estimated value to future value. [...]
Or even the sw corner of glenmore and Macleod. The old car dealership. 2.4 acres at $7.2 million. ($3.0M/ acre) You go into the retail side and you have bed bath and beyond. 2.17 acres at $10.5 million. ($4.84M/ acre) The Staples and connected animal hospital: $17.2 million for 3.23 acres. ($5.32M / acre) The entire mini mall with the red lobster: $14.2 million for 2.61 acres. ($5.44M/acre)
The density needed to generate that spread would be massive.
Would it? I added per-acre values to your comment, just as a comparison; the commercial sites you mention are mostly ballpark
$5M/acre. Chinook Centre, the most valuable single property in the city is $1.1 billion, but 55 acres -
$19.8M/acre just as a ceiling for commercial.
Windsor Place, the northwest corner of 58th and 5th St is
a four building rental complex; all four storey (looks like walkup?), it's also 2.17 acres like Bed Bath & Beyond (which will not be that much longer). Very much the same part of town. It's valued at $18.96 million, nearly double the value of the BB&B.
($8.74M/acre). And that's for low-rise, laundry room, built in 1968 apartments. The average rent for households in that block is $1090 per the Census. Surely a new building could rent for a little bit more, in addition to any additional density. The four-storey walkup across 5th Street is quite similar,
the two units on the northeast corner are $13.07M on 1.39 acres
($9.40M/acre). So this elderly four-storey rental is double the value of the commercial land.
To guesstimate about what a new building would go for, I looked for a situation where there are both new and old rentals in the same area. There is
a two-building complex on the north side of 25th Ave in Mission, right near the bridge. Cambridge Place and Oxford House; four storeys, 1968 construction. They are valued at $6.72 million on 0.6 acres,
($11.2M/acre). That's a little higher than the Chinook area, about 24%, which perhaps is the inner-city boost from the location. Right down the street is
Elva, which is a five storey new rental building, just finished last year. It's not a lot more density; only one more storey although it has higher lot coverage due to underground parking. Still, it's not crazy density. It's on 0.36 acres, and is valued at $18.3 million; that's
($50.9M/acre). Even if there's a 25% bump in value due to inner city, that's still $40M/acre, which would be a factor of 8-10 versus the commercial land uses you talk about. And it's only five stories!
Elva photo by
Alex_YYC.
If you do want to think about more density, look at the two 15ish storey towers in Manchester at the north end of the
dense blocks on 55th Ave. I believe they are both affordable housing; they are 1 acre combined, and are valued at $64.75 million together
($64.75M/acre) 12 times the per-acre value of the Staples. That's a big addition in density, but it's not the highest possible value, particularly since they are affordable.
And at the top end, in the east Beltline, t
he Lallan apartments behind the former Bernard Callebaut plaza are four storey walkups, built in 1978, a little more recent but not a ton. $5.2 million for 0.48 acre,
($10.8M/acre); again, a 25% or so boost relative to similar buildings in the Chinook area. It's a block away from the
37-storey BLVD, which is on 1.99 acres and valued at $225 million
($113.3M / acre).
You could double the value with 50 year old walk-up apartments! You could probably get 5 to 10x value increase at four or five stories, probably 8 to 12x with five stories above retail, and 15 to 20x at high rise; and the location certainly justifies high rise.