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General Construction Updates

Senecant said:
Probably worth mentioning is that likely few or none of these operators would even be able to acquire space in Chinook or any similar regional mall. If we're assuming that most of the potential vendors are re-sellers of Alibaba bric a brac, those very small businesses are not likely to be attractive to nor have the covenant required by sophisticated landlords. A comparison of unit price to a major regional mall is not a reasonable direct comparison without also considering that those seeking to occupy units could likely never occupy the major regional malls. A better comparison might be something like a Pacific Place Mall or Northland Village. Though even those probably don't have enclosed spaces of as little as 145 square feet. It may well be that those who would be inclined to have tenancy at New Horizon may not actually have many other reasonable options for the type of business they are contemplating.
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It could be that many of the potential owners don't fit into the plans of the larger type malls, but at the end of the day it comes down to the dollars working or not working. I think given the prices out there, the cost is simply too high. I did some looking on Kijiji and the prices quoted are monthly. A stall of 270 sure feet is $1,500.00/month, which is highly priced, and means the business has to do a lot of volume given the small space. That is higher than Chinook, and even though a potential business might not be able to get into a place like Chinook, it should mean having to pay double the price.

There is no possible way this mall is going to work at those lease prices.
 
If the mall was generating traffic, the food court rent isn't bad at all. The kiosks though - how are they competitive with a strip mall with parking right up front for 40 a square foot? Only way is similar volumes at 1/2 the square footage.
 
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Cowtown said:
It could be that many of the potential owners don't fit into the plans of the larger type malls, but at the end of the day it comes down to the dollars working or not working. I think given the prices out there, the cost is simply too high. I did some looking on Kijiji and the prices quoted are monthly. A stall of 270 sure feet is $1,500.00/month, which is highly priced, and means the business has to do a lot of volume given the small space. That is higher than Chinook, and even though a potential business might not be able to get into a place like Chinook, it should mean having to pay double the price.

There is no possible way this mall is going to work at those lease prices.
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You'll get no argument from me on those points. I suspect the unsophisticated speculators who figured that they could make bank on these units, either through rent or resale, are going to take a big ol' bath on their investment.
 
https://www.narcity.com/news/a-massive-new-mall-just-opened-in-canada-and-its-a-huge-failure
Did this forum just cause a news article to be written on New Horizon:D

On a side note, I hope this mall failure spooks the developers behind the proposed Omni mall nearby. Even though that will be a more traditional mall, I want Calgary to fix and redevelop malls inside of its city limits, especially ones that could be geared towards TOD's. On top of that, we sure could use a proper walkable shopping ave like Bloor street in Toronto. 17th ave would be great for this or even The Riff in EV if its not too late already.
 
gsunnyg said:
https://www.narcity.com/news/a-massive-new-mall-just-opened-in-canada-and-its-a-huge-failure
Did this forum just cause a news article to be written on New Horizon:D

On a side note, I hope this mall failure spooks the developers behind the proposed Omni mall nearby. Even though that will be a more traditional mall, I want Calgary to fix and redevelop malls inside of its city limits, especially ones that could be geared towards TOD's. On top of that, we sure could use a proper walkable shopping ave like Bloor street in Toronto. 17th ave would be great for this or even The Riff in EV if its not too late already.
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And a popular discussion topic on Reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/comments/9grd0w/new_horizon_mall_is_open_regular_hours_nowthough/
 
FCC1982 said:
Hearing exciting rumours of more high rise residential towers starting up on a number of sites throughout the Beltline and Downtown. :cool:
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I have to believe they are just rumours o_O. In addition to the rental projects that are about to start construction (i.e large ones like Curtis Block, Strategic One; 11 & 11 SW) there may be more rentals coming but there are already 2000+ units in the pipeline. Hard to believe there will be demand for more in 2-3 years.
There are absolutely no economic indicators that would suggest that the condo market in the inner city is recovering at a pace that would support new projects. Count me as being highly skeptical.
 
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City is looking to fund the $400 million Arts Common expansion along with the redevelopment of the olympic plaza which would include a residential tower in the NW corner.
 
Aggressive and completely unrealistic. The City already struggles to fund the Green Line. Expanding the CRL is too nonsensical to be taken seriously. An expanded Arts Common is unlikely to generate additional tax revenue and the existing levy probably doesn't cover interest on the $400M sunk into East Village. This project only stands a chance if it attracts philanthropy
 
$100 million shouldn't be unrealistic for the facility, if they are willing to go for a named donor for the entire complex. Re-upping donations from the family foundations/companies of the existing theatres could be in the cards as well. Raising half does seem a bit crazy in this economy, but the money is out there.

I would wait though for a decision on the future of the convention centre - depending on the downtown buildings' future, those sites could provide a better opportunity to rebuild without shutting down, and avoid expensive phasing.
 
JonnyCanuck said:
I have to believe they are just rumours o_O. In addition to the rental projects that are about to start construction (i.e large ones like Curtis Block, Strategic One; 11 & 11 SW) there may be more rentals coming but there are already 2000+ units in the pipeline. Hard to believe there will be demand for more in 2-3 years.
There are absolutely no economic indicators that would suggest that the condo market in the inner city is recovering at a pace that would support new projects. Count me as being highly skeptical.
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Vacancy for newer condos is at 2.6% in the Beltline. Calgary has 2.6 units of purpose built rental per 100 people, compared to 4.9 and 4.2 in Toronto and Vancouver. Calgary grew by 21,000 people last year, Beltline by 1,668 and the entire Centre City by 2,242. Beltline has had an average yearly growth rate of 2.84% over the last 9 years, while the city as a whole grew by 2.09% on average. And those years include the very weak growth years of 2014-2016.

If that trend holds, we can expect another 2,000 people in the Beltline by 2020, 5,400 by 2025 and almost another 10,000 by 2030.
 
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