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Calgary Transit

Oh okay. What’s the population of the area around Marda Loop? 10,000?
It depends on the boundaries of Marda Loop being that it's not an actual neighborhood. Generally it consists of Altadore, South Calgary, Garrison Woods and part of Richmond (east of Crowchild) and as of 2021 it was a little over 18K. Some also refer to areas west of Crowchild (Richmond and Garrison Green) as well, which would put it at around 22K

In this map below from https://www.visitmardaloop.com/ they use this area as the Marda Loop Market area.

1735853357358.png
 
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Wish had remembered where that free GIS tool was, but alas. Lets eyeball and do some math.

The communities of Richmond, Garrison Woods, Altadore, and South Calgary, which generously could be called Marda Loop add up to:

Richmond 5,250
Altadore 7,290
Garrison Woods 2,860
South Calgary 4,540
19,940. For comparison, the entire beltline is 25,880.
1735852139086.png


If we do this instead:
1735852898653.png

we end up with roughly:
9276

with east of crowchild only being 6,729
1735853087713.png

and thats if you can get a service to the middle of marda loop.

if you explore a bit on the census, around 40% of that catchment can work from home, which degrades transit demand, and around 20% of the population took transit to work in 2016 (more walked or biked than took transit), pre-work from home.
 

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I looked at this some time ago; I can't remember if this is 2016 or 2021 Census data tbh. Anyways, here's the population within 400m actual walk distance and within 400-800m walk distance of various main streets in Calgary; Marda Loop is ~11K or so within 800m. The one note I'd have is that about half of Kensington's 400-800m population are residents of West Downtown who might not normally be thought of as Kensington residents. Marda Loop is more comparable to other pre-80s suburban high streets (16th Ave, 17th Ave West, International Ave) than it is to the classic inner city strips.

1735855973691.png
 
Great analysis @ByeByeBaby thanks for always posting such high quality content! Interesting point to flag Kensington's catchments here, never really thought about that before.

One thing that always surprises me is how local density is actually fairly low in Kensington area (although reasonably high by citywide standards), yet the area remains pretty successful. Even in 2021, Marda Loop had more people within 400m of the main street than 10th Street did, despite a completely different urban vibe. Marda Loop has added even more since 2021 so I expect the gap to widen a bit until the latest, larger-scale developments in Kensington are completed.

A more qualitative take on Kensington is that it benefits from a few things beyond just local density:
  1. Classic inner city street with good fundamental forms and designs, all with quick and direct access to downtown. This is structurally an advantage to be able to borrow some of the action and activity from downtown, without having been overrun by too much transportation infrastructure expansion during the car-boom years of the 1970s that killed urban expansion in other directions.
  2. As an early - and arguably quite successful BIA - Kensington area seems to have achieved a more curated approach to retail development for the past few decades. Has created a pretty cohesive destination node. This has supercharged the scene there more than other main streets - people are visiting from outside the community regularly for decades boosting retail demand beyond what streets that serve solely local populations typically could support.
  3. Total lack of competition in the NW for a walkable destination node to go hang out and spend money.
For Marda Loop, I think it's development is both less cohesive and more recent, with material density only really showing up in the past few years. The retail scene is finally morphing into something that appears a bit more "curated" and cohesive like Kensington has had for decades. Marda Loop is become a destination of sorts for the first time worthy of outside attention, by adding typical but critical stuff like wine bars, cafes, restaurants. Perhaps even a rudimentary night life is emerging in Marda Loop!

Growing both sides of the balance sheet (local population but also local destination value) is critical to get transit service where it needs to be. I don't know if Marda Loop is quite there in destination value, but it's continuing to grow and strengthen. Calgary Transit should be thinking about how their bus network reforms itself to a more frequency and destination based service, instead of the downtown-centric commuter model that Marda Loop currently has. All this was laid out in Route Ahead years ago, it's the implementing it that needs to happen.

Most specifically - and back to this transit discussion - I think what's the missing link is a rapid, frequent service between these growing destination hubs: Chinook - Rockyview - MRU - Marda Loop - Foothills - U of C. So essentially combo of Route 9/20/MAX Yellow that doesn't take a milk-run to get into and out of all these destinations with such meandering time penalties that driving to these destinations don't pay.

I think not using Chinook as a major bus hub for many routes and at least 1 MAX line is the most obvious missed opportunity here. Chinook Mall and LRT station should be the major south-central hub, not Heritage. I can see why they made the decision they did when rolling out the MAX system, it would be really expensive to figure out how to get buses in and out onto Glenmore, and transit operations would prefer a less congested area to base out of at Heritage, but Chinook's destination value is 1,000x whatever Heritage will ever be.

It's worth it to concentrate services there and would resolve some of the perceived gaps for Marda Loop's access to stuff. Essentially find a way to clean all this up (map below) and make local access in each of these destinations less painful and time consuming.

1736356884913.png
 
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A more qualitative take on Kensington is that it benefits from a few things beyond just local density:
  1. Classic inner city street with good fundamental forms and designs, all with quick and direct access to downtown. This is structurally an advantage to be able to borrow some of the action and activity from downtown, without having been overrun by
  2. As an early - and arguably quite successful BIA - Kensington area seems to have achieved a more curated approach to retail development for the past few decades. Has created a pretty cohesive destination node. This has supercharged the scene there more than other main streets - people are visiting from outside the community regularly for decades boosting retail demand beyond what streets that serve solely local populations typically could support.
  3. Total lack of competition in the NW for a walkable destination node to go hang out and spend money.
Agreed with everything you said about transit. Kensington has also been more successful historically because it has convenient access to SAIT and UofC without any bus connections. It's also really popular for young professionals that work downtown but don't want to live in the Beltline. As Marda Loop has become more popular, I find it's retail/restaurants are targeting the wealthier and older demographics, which the surrounding area has many. These people would likely drive regardless of the transit access. Better transit will hopefully bring other people to the area but unlikely to really reduce congestion.
 
As Marda Loop has become more popular, I find it's retail/restaurants are targeting the wealthier and older demographics, which the surrounding area has many. These people would likely drive regardless of the transit access. Better transit will hopefully bring other people to the area but unlikely to really reduce congestion.
I'm trying to think of new retail/restaurants that target wealthy older people. A lot of the newer stuff would appeal more to young people than older (thinking specifically of the Leonard projects and the martel block). They have patios, strong social media followings, and are different from established standard on the neighborhood (Merchants, the strip along 33rd beside the Shoppers).There's also farm, Central Taps and even more Leonard stuff coming.

I'll agree that buying in the area requires money but even that is changing with the numerous apartments and other multi-family going in. Personally, if there was better transit I think it would be used. Access isn't the issue you have numerous routes that are there. The problem is where they go and how they get there. The 7, 13, and 22 and milk runs that take 45+ minutes to get downtown and the Max Yellow misses everything around 50th Ave to 33rd Ave.
 
Great analysis @ByeByeBaby thanks for always posting such high quality content! Interesting point to flag Kensington's catchments here, never really thought about that before.

One thing that always surprises me is how local density is actually fairly low in Kensington area (although reasonably high by citywide standards), yet the area remains pretty successful. Even in 2021, Marda Loop had more people within 400m of the main street than 10th Street did, despite a completely different urban vibe. Marda Loop has added even more since 2021 so I expect the gap to widen a bit until the latest, larger-scale developments in Kensington are completed.

A more qualitative take on Kensington is that it benefits from a few things beyond just local density:
  1. Classic inner city street with good fundamental forms and designs, all with quick and direct access to downtown. This is structurally an advantage to be able to borrow some of the action and activity from downtown, without having been overrun by
  2. As an early - and arguably quite successful BIA - Kensington area seems to have achieved a more curated approach to retail development for the past few decades. Has created a pretty cohesive destination node. This has supercharged the scene there more than other main streets - people are visiting from outside the community regularly for decades boosting retail demand beyond what streets that serve solely local populations typically could support.
  3. Total lack of competition in the NW for a walkable destination node to go hang out and spend money.
For Marda Loop, I think it's development both less cohesive and more recent, with material density only really showing up in the past few years. The retail scene is finally morphing into something that appears a bit more "curated" and cohesive like Kensington has had for decades. Marda Loop is become a destination of sorts for the first time worthy of outside attention, by adding typical but critical stuff like wine bars, cafes, restaurants. Perhaps even a rudimentary night life is emerging in Marda Loop!

Growing both sides of the balance sheet (local population but also local destination value) is critical to get transit service where it needs to be. I don't know if Marda Loop is quite there in destination value, but it's continuing to grow and strengthen. Calgary Transit should be thinking about how their bus network reforms itself to a more frequency and destination based service, instead of the downtown-centric commuter model that Marda Loop currently has. All this was laid out in Route Ahead years ago, it's the implementing it that needs to happen.

Most specifically - and back to this transit discussion - I think what's the missing link is a rapid, frequent service between these growing destination hubs: Chinook - Rockyview - MRU - Marda Loop - Foothills - U of C. So essentially combo of Route 9/20/MAX Yellow that doesn't take a milk-run to get into and out of all these destinations with such meandering time penalties that driving to these destinations don't pay.

I think not using Chinook as a major bus hub for many routes and at least 1 MAX line is the most obvious missed opportunity here. Chinook Mall and LRT station should be the major south-central hub, not Heritage. I can see why they made the decision they did when rolling out the MAX system, it would be really expensive to figure out how to get buses in and out onto Glenmore, and transit operations would prefer a less congested area to base out of at Heritage, but Chinook's destination value is 1,000x whatever Heritage will ever be.

It's worth it to concentrate services there and would resolve some of the perceived gaps for Marda Loop's access to stuff. Essentially find a way to clean all this up (map below) and make local access in each of these destinations less painful and time consuming.

View attachment 624164
I also think the Sunnyside LRT station did wonders for the businesses along 10th Street.

I found it funny when business owners along Centre street were complaining that the LRT would eliminate on-street parking. Yeah...you lose a few off-peak parking spots in front of your business, but you have 50,000 C-train riders passing your store everyday.
 
I'm trying to think of new retail/restaurants that target wealthy older people. A lot of the newer stuff would appeal more to young people than older (thinking specifically of the Leonard projects and the martel block). They have patios, strong social media followings, and are different from established standard on the neighborhood (Merchants, the strip along 33rd beside the Shoppers).There's also farm, Central Taps and even more Leonard stuff coming.

I'll agree that buying in the area requires money but even that is changing with the numerous apartments and other multi-family going in. Personally, if there was better transit I think it would be used. Access isn't the issue you have numerous routes that are there. The problem is where they go and how they get there. The 7, 13, and 22 and milk runs that take 45+ minutes to get downtown and the Max Yellow misses everything around 50th Ave to 33rd Ave.

I think it's the 35-50 affluent family demo, compared with the 20-35 crowd.

Anecdotally, everyone I know in the Marda area fits the first demo.

I used to live in Kensington, but moved away at age 34 before first baby turned 1. Nearly everyone I can think of from that area made a similar move on that timeline.

There are certainly plenty of young families in Sunnyside/hillhurst, including some who live in very expensive homes - but again anecdotally the few I know still in Kensington have modest+ incomes, compared to much higher incomes for those I know in Marda.
 
I'm trying to think of new retail/restaurants that target wealthy older people. A lot of the newer stuff would appeal more to young people than older (thinking specifically of the Leonard projects and the martel block). They have patios, strong social media followings, and are different from established standard on the neighborhood (Merchants, the strip along 33rd beside the Shoppers).There's also farm, Central Taps and even more Leonard stuff coming.
Probably a biased impression I got, we parked near the new Henry Block development and went to check it out. And they're definitely upscale stores/restaurants.

I think it's the 35-50 affluent family demo, compared with the 20-35 crowd.

Anecdotally, everyone I know in the Marda area fits the first demo.

I used to live in Kensington, but moved away at age 34 before first baby turned 1. Nearly everyone I can think of from that area made a similar move on that timeline.

There are certainly plenty of young families in Sunnyside/hillhurst, including some who live in very expensive homes - but again anecdotally the few I know still in Kensington have modest+ incomes, compared to much higher incomes for those I know in Marda.
Is there a reason why you think people chose Marda/Altadore over Hillhurst/West Hillhurst and Briar Hill? I think there was more redevelopment happening in Marda Loop at the time.
 
The 7, 13, and 22 and milk runs that take 45+ minutes to get downtown
I used to take the 7 from in front of Phil & Sebastian in ML and it was more like 30 minutes to get to the core of downtown along 1st St. But I think what was worse was the big one-way loop it took downtown. What a confusing route.

Coming back home I would usually take the 108/112/18. Not sure if those routes are still around, but they would drop me at 33 Ave just west of Crowchild. A longer walk, but a super quick 10-15 minute ride.
 
Ha, I fall into this exactly.
Maybe I know you. But username checks out.

Probably a biased impression I got, we parked near the new Henry Block development and went to check it out. And they're definitely upscale stores/restaurants.


Is there a reason why you think people chose Marda/Altadore over Hillhurst/West Hillhurst and Briar Hill? I think there was more redevelopment happening in Marda Loop at the time.

Money goes further in Altadore - more available supply of nice big houses. Sunnyside/east Hillhurst have expensive small[er] houses (plenty of these in Marda, too), but not as many big ones and harder to find things like attached garage. And the general vibe is just more family friendly somehow, even compared to West Hillhurst.

A bit of a random story - one time my wife and I had a bit of time to kill, so we popped into an open house on 12 St (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NjymH7uPdP4MCPaf8). We weren't seriously looking at that point so not terribly informed on the market (though we nearly rented a place across the street). We were up front about that with the realtor - he asked us what he thought the house cost and we guessed something like $1M having only seen a bit of the main floor (probably 8 years ago) - actual asking was right around $2M! Turns out it was like 5bdrm/6bath and shockingly large and very nice on the inside.

There are certainly a bunch of those homes in there with more being built all the time, but I've walked each of10A-13th enough times to know it's not the majority. A few friends have homes in Altadore that are on a whole other level (for I suspect similar prices, but I honestly don't know), and at this point the old bungalows really stand out as the exception.
 
I used to take the 7 from in front of Phil & Sebastian in ML and it was more like 30 minutes to get to the core of downtown along 1st St. But I think what was worse was the big one-way loop it took downtown. What a confusing route.

Coming back home I would usually take the 108/112/18. Not sure if those routes are still around, but they would drop me at 33 Ave just west of Crowchild. A longer walk, but a super quick 10-15 minute ride.
Oh don't get me started on the Route 6 / 7 counter loop pet peeve here. This is the current state - the problem is that each route is pretty great at getting downtown, but to go back you literally have to do the full loop or walk to get back to the other direction:
1736369291162.png

Say you want to go back home after reaching your inner city destination. Crossing the road to take the loop in the other direction (e.g. 6 to 7 or 7 to 6) is not feasible - it will take you back to another entire neighbourhood. Your choices are to do the full loop (including all the downtown time points with 5 minute wait times each and lots of congestion) or walking many blocks to the closer option.

It's a by-product of commuter centric thinking, our downtown one-ways limiting options to turn, having no downtown "bus hub" where busses can turn around, and neither route achieving the demand needed to give it a frequency that would negate some of the inefficiency issues (because you don't have to wait).

It's a network issue as many routes are designed to fill gaps for others, so not so easy to resolve. But I really like systems where you can go to and from a location by just crossing the street. Perhaps we find a way to consolidate the 6 ways to get from Marda Loop area to downtown (MY, 66, 22, 13, 7, 6) down to like 2 or 3 and increase the frequency on those remaining routes.
 

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Money goes further in Altadore - more available supply of nice big houses. Sunnyside/east Hillhurst have expensive small[er] houses (plenty of these in Marda, too), but not as many big ones and harder to find things like attached garage. And the general vibe is just more family friendly somehow, even compared to West Hillhurst.

A bit of a random story - one time my wife and I had a bit of time to kill, so we popped into an open house on 12 St (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NjymH7uPdP4MCPaf8). We weren't seriously looking at that point so not terribly informed on the market (though we nearly rented a place across the street). We were up front about that with the realtor - he asked us what he thought the house cost and we guessed something like $1M having only seen a bit of the main floor (probably 8 years ago) - actual asking was right around $2M! Turns out it was like 5bdrm/6bath and shockingly large and very nice on the inside.

There are certainly a bunch of those homes in there with more being built all the time, but I've walked each of10A-13th enough times to know it's not the majority. A few friends have homes in Altadore that are on a whole other level (for I suspect similar prices, but I honestly don't know), and at this point the old bungalows really stand out as the exception.
Definitely a difference between Hillhurst and West Hillhurst. I'd say WH by the time you get to 19 is very family friendly with schools and playgrounds. I wasn't around Calgary then but heard Altadore used to have a lot of smaller homes, which gave way to lots of infill/corner townhouses. Whereas Hillhurst had big (for the time) homes for a while now and have the issue where to build a new big house would be way too expensive, if smaller homes are already selling for $2M.
 

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