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Calgary real estate market

summerofgeorge said:
like Marda Loop
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In what sense? Altadore/South Calgary has been gentrified from when it was mostly single-family bungalow.

It was the creation of Garrison Woods. The surrounding communities also went from those bungalows to larger single-family homes. Now it is density; 6 story apartments, infill townhomes, duplexes, two single-family homes where there was one bungalow.

Will this happen to International Avenue? IMO, no. There's no Garrison Woods development opportunity and I don't see there being a desire to build larger single-family homes in the area. Saying that it could densify with apartments, infill townhomes, and duplexes. Land value could make the margins better for developers even though rents and sale prices likely will never rival Marda Loop. By simply adding new density it could be on the path to become a cool, walkable, quirky part of the city with perhaps the regions most vibrant culture.

I'm a resident of Garrison Woods and it is very white, which is fine but because of that it lacks culture and the excitement that brings with varied restaurants and other businesses.

Marda Loop is becoming cool (thanks Leonard), it is walkable and does have some quirkiness with developments like Martel and Farm but I think International Avenue by shear volume of opportunity has a chance to be something on a whole other level. The opportunity just has to be seized.
 
summerofgeorge said:
Long time listener first time caller! I was wondering what this forum thinks about Forest Lawn/International Avenue? I know the area is rough around the edges but considering its proximity to downtown and retail options, do you think it could develop into a neighbourhood like Marda Loop?
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Welcome - interesting question.

I assume by develop like Marda Loop, I assume you mean intensification and redevelopment like Marda Loop? In the short-run, no - the delta between the areas is pretty huge in terms of land values and redevelopment interest I think. That can change over time, but for now Marda Loop is on a different scale above other similar areas (not just International Ave, but almost all other potential urban infill areas too). Forest Lawn and surrounding communities have seen a bit of modest redevelopment, but nothing notable yet to indicate a change in community trajectory IMO.

That said, International Avenue is ahead of Marda Loop by many definitions:
  • It's larger, with more opportunity for scale
  • stronger transit backbone
  • Diverse, low-cost retail and food hub, likely among the best clusters in the city
  • Stable and relatively affordable, yet with plenty of capacity to grow and adapt into the future
Things can change quickly though. As Calgary continues to grow and diversify, I think the east side will see renewed development interest eventually - the fundamentals of proximity to everything, access to jobs, retail and amenity offerings of Forest Lawn/International Avenue will eventually attract significant interest. Many cities have areas like Forest Lawn that get under-appreciated, ignored and stigmatized in a smaller city will inevitably start showing too good value to ignore forever, especially as other areas become increasingly built up and expensive.
 
summerofgeorge said:
Long time listener first time caller! I was wondering what this forum thinks about Forest Lawn/International Avenue? I know the area is rough around the edges but considering its proximity to downtown and retail options, do you think it could develop into a neighbourhood like Marda Loop?
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Not sure it will end up like Marda Loop, but it could very well end up as something cool, just a different style. One of the differences is the layout of 17th ave SE. A large chunk of the avenue is fronted by parking lots, and could take some time to change over to retail frontage. I like the direction it's going though. Also one of the things I like about 17th ave SE is the number of good inexpensive businesses. I think those will exist for some time, even if the avenue changes over to businesses fronting the avenue, and some gentrification happens.
CBBarnett said:
Many cities have areas like Forest Lawn that get under-appreciated, ignored and stigmatized in a smaller city will inevitably start showing too good value to ignore forever, especially as other areas become increasingly built up and expensive.
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Agreed. Bowness and Montgomery are good examples of neighborhoods that are turning the corner from having a bad reputation. I suppose Inglewood is the all-time example of this also.
 
summerofgeorge said:
Long time listener first time caller! I was wondering what this forum thinks about Forest Lawn/International Avenue? I know the area is rough around the edges but considering its proximity to downtown and retail options, do you think it could develop into a neighbourhood like Marda Loop?
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I love it. There is so much potential, and it has come so far in 20 years. I think there could be great benefit by leaning into the quirk. "Home of the Forest Lawn Special" and define the up down, side by side as part of the identity instead of something to shy away from. The special will have an interesting stabilizing effect on the area, as the margins from redevelopment aren't nearly as wide as with SFHs. That being said, it has a long way to go to catch up with Saddletowne or Bridlewood as 15 minute cities.

I think the area might end up like Sunalta, being the left behind neighbourhood for a long while, and then accelerating fast after a few big risks pay off for some developers.
 
I think the BRT, the streetscape improvements, the wealth of restaurants, and things like Unity Park have made it much more attractive than it was 10 or 20 years ago.

That said, judging from the house prices, and the local bars, gentrification is a ways away for Forest Lawn. Part of it is that being across a valley (containing Deerfoot, the Bow river, railway tracks and Nose Creek) from downtown makes it feel isolated. I think converting the BRT to a branch of the Green Line would help with that, but that's a long way away.
 
It will probably take a while. Marda Loop has the advantage of being very connected to existing centres like the Beltline, Mount Royal, MRU within walking or short commute distance. Because of the highway, Forest Lawn will always be disconnected from the downtown area from a walkability standpoint. The price of homes in the area would also disincentivize density, because condos don't make a lot of sense when they cost the same as SFH homes in the area. There may be pockets of infills/gentrification, but the overall area probably won't be transformed in just a few years. Especially because Calgary has many older neighbourhoods (like Montgomery) that can be gentrified, and new greenfield land (NW/SW/NE) that can be developed into its own community immediately.

When I was moving to Calgary, I was initially looking at a lot of "up and coming" neighbourhoods because the prices are lower and appreciation higher. But at the same time, life is short. 10-20 years is a long long time and there's cost to your lifestyle while waiting. There are neighbourhoods that are much closer (like Renfrew) that I would consider if you are looking for the walkable lifestyle of Maria Loop.
 
It's appalling to me that the federal government is still stubborn about cutting back immigration numbers temporarily. Decades worth of scare about the consequences of not replacing an aging population has fueled these immigration targets. Yet, I can't imagine it being any worse than what is happening to housing affordability right now and the strain on other areas as well such as healthcare services. I mean, Japan didn't collapse because of an aging population, right?

This whole situation makes me angry when I hear the federal government yapping about how they can't find an easy solution to the housing crisis, however, multiple solutions are available that can make a massive difference. Moreover, I just read that over a thousand students are waitlisted for on-campus housing at UofC, MRU, and SAIT, weeks before the semester starts. On the other hand, the Federal government is settling a dispute with the City of Toronto by giving them $100 million to house refugees. I rarely get political on these forums but an election can't come sooner. The decline in housing affordability over the last 8 years is tragic and will have lasting generational effects.
 
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gsunnyg said:
It's appalling to me that the federal government is still stubborn about cutting back immigration numbers temporarily. Decades worth of scare about the consequences of not replacing an aging population has fueled these immigration targets. Yet, I can't imagine it being any worse than what is happening to housing affordability right now and the strain on other areas as well such as healthcare services. I mean, Japan didn't collapse because of an aging population, right?

This whole situation makes me angry when I hear the federal government yapping about how they can't find an easy solution to the housing crisis, however, multiple solutions are available that can make a massive difference. Moreover, I just read that over a thousand students are waitlisted for on-campus housing at UofC, MRU, and SAIT, weeks before the semester starts. On the other hand, the Federal government is settling a dispute with the City of Toronto by giving them $100 million to house refugees. I rarely get political on these forums but an election can't come sooner. The decline in housing affordability over the last 8 years is tragic and will have lasting generational effects.
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Couldn't agree more with your last point. The issue with housing affordability is, prices don't respond directly to supply or demand. Even if immigration falls, people are not going to suddenly start selling their houses at 1/2 of the price, they'll simply hold onto them, limiting supply and keeping prices high.

As an immigrant, I am disheartened by the current policy on immigration. Canada has always prided ourselves on openness to immigration, which was because it was managed in a way that benefited the people here while being fair to those coming. This was possible because we share a land border with the wealthiest country in the world and surrounded by ice and ocean. Yet, we are purposely creating an immigration/housing crisis which will breed a generation of young people that may turn their back on immigration. I honestly cannot fathom why the government is not pausing or slowing immigration, We will not suddenly collapse as a country considering your example of Japan, but countries like Australia may be more comparable and they do not have this ridiculous level of immigration.

It's also not just immigrants, but the sheer number of student visas that we give out, which has no annual targets or caps. Schools, especially private colleges offering "marketing" or "business" degrees have skyrocketed (seems less so in Calgary but Toronto is swimming in them). The government can fix this with a very slight change in policy. Currently, to demonstrate financial support, is $10,000 CAD PER YEAR. There is no where in Canada where you can live, let alone eat on that income. So we end up with thousands of students unable to support themselves that have to take low paying jobs to support themselves and unable to actually study. Remember how companies used to have call centres overseas and now they're all in Canada? And I'm sure it's not companies paying much higher wages...
Screenshot 2023-08-11 103418.png
 
The private colleges offering 1 or 2 year programs for $20,000 a year need to be curtailed by putting in a housing requirement. If they want to exist, have them build residences. Every other PSE should be put on a 5 year plan to have residence spots available for every foreign student, and make them mandatory to use.

While foreign students aren't a huge issue in Calgary, Bow Valley College does have way more foreign students in their business program than domestic students. It should be a sign that the program isn't valuable to Canada if Canadians aren't taking half the spots in the program.
 
I can't believe I'm saying this but I agree. I'll never forget the Bronconnier's election ads: "Build the roads before the houses". It's fine to want immigration and more foreign students, which I'm not against, I know the benefits but the other things weren't done in conjunction with that to make those policies successful. Now we're stuck with this issue of the short term and medium term pain for long term gain.
 
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