Calgary Municipal Politics

[Silence&Motion]

So tomorrow’s the big day. Any predictions? I’m gonna call it for Nenshi, he pulls it off, but not by a wide margin. Something like 44% - 38% for Smith.

This is the first election I've followed (and participated in) where I have absolutely no clue what the outcome is going to be. As far as I can tell, it's not out of the realm of possibility for this to be a total rout on either side. It could be a landslide for progressive candidates, a landslide for "Manning Centre" candidates, or anywhere in between.

On a side note, it makes me realize just what a media mecca Toronto is. Having only participated in local elections in Toronto before, I'm used to multiple polling firms providing weekly results so that you can tell which polls are outliers and you can monitor the changing fortunes of particular candidates. You also have, between the papers, television, and radio, dozens of local reporters chasing multiple angles. In Calgary we've only gotten a few sporadic polls from dubious sources that go in opposite directions. We also only have a handful of local reporters who can only focus on a couple different issues at a time. Even after the election, we'll really have no idea what determined the fate of the candidates. If Bill Smith loses will it be because of his Green Line misstep? His problems in business? Or was he just a boring outsider who never had a shot against a media savvy incumbent? If Nenshi loses was it because of his actions during the campaign? Was he too arrogant and snarky in debates and on the campaign trail? Or were Calgarians just depressed an angry about the economy and were ready to vote for change no matter what?

This is all to say that people should support local journalism like The Sprawl.

 

[darwink]

Before 3/4 of the local reporters were laid off, they complained during a municipal campaign I was working on about doing an announcement a week.

An announcement a week was too much work.

It is really hard to have an 'air war' campaign (media announcements, advertising) drive the election when there is so little to talk about that actually gets coverage. Also very hard to pivot and change the narrative once one is set.

 

[Oddball]

I think it'll be narrow either way, narrower than your call even Alex. I'm going to follow the recent trends in Canadian elections and call for a late game upset in Nenshi's favour, <3% margin.

 

[Surrealplaces]

So the dust has settled and Nenshi wins by ~8% of the vote. Not a huge surprise, that's about what I figured it would be. It was hard to tell though if going by any of the wacky polls.

 

[Always_Biking]

I was disappointed to see Sean Chu stay in as Councillor, but oh well, looks like a good council overall.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Somewhat disappointing that every single incumbent got returned to office, even though many came close to being defeated (e.g. Sean Chu, Ward Sutherland, etc.). But there are several new faces, so it will be interesting to see what the dynamic is. Greg Morrow (formerly U of C prof in urban planning) speculated that council will now be able to pass secondary suites reform. He was assuming that Jeromy Farkas will prioritize a libertarian's desire to remove government restrictions over a conservative's desire to protect the privileges of the well-off.

 

[Oddball]

I did vote Nenshi, but for me the election turned out to be the opposite. I wasn't so much pro-Nenshi as anti-Smith. Smith had a vacant platform and his anti-Greenline stance was incredibly perplexing. I also couldn't shake the feeling that he was getting a little too much help from the Calgary Flames. He refused to release his donor list and apparently had ads running at the Flames first two home games.

I'm not too excited for the new mandate, but at least a few key issues (i.e. Greenline, Arena, Amazon/Olympics bids) won't get derailed by Smith. If the forces opposed to Nenshi had coalesced around someone with their pants on, Nenshi likely would have lost. I guess we'll see what comes down the pipe next time around since Nenshi will probably have moved on to other things.

Somewhat disappointing that every single incumbent got returned to office, even though many came close to being defeated (e.g. Sean Chu, Ward Sutherland, etc.). But there are several new faces, so it will be interesting to see what the dynamic is. Greg Morrow (formerly U of C prof in urban planning) speculated that council will now be able to pass secondary suites reform. He was assuming that Jeromy Farkas will prioritize a libertarian's desire to remove government restrictions over a conservative's desire to protect the privileges of the well-off.

That's not what it is to be a conservative.

 

[simster3]

Is there anywhere where we can find a poll by poll break down of voting? I would assume this would take some time to come out.

 

[Oddball]

What sort of breakdown are you looking for? The unofficial results from the City of Calgary break it down by ward. I don't know if you'll ever find a demographic or political spectrum breakdown.

 

[darwink]

The Municipal Election Study when it comes out will help with demographics.

The poll by poll usually comes out with the city wide official report, can take awhile, and sometimes needs a helpful prodding to be released.

 

[simster3]

I would like to find a polling station, as I assume that the lowest level of breakdown you can really find. I have seen a map in the past of the polling breakdown, but I think it was for the federal byelection a few years back that put Crockett in.

 

[Alex_YYC]

I was low on the numbers, but the difference of 8% was bang on.

So tomorrow’s the big day. Any predictions? I’m gonna call it for Nenshi, he pulls it off, but not by a wide margin. Something like 44% - 38% for Smith.

 

[darwink]

Looks like the city was faster this time:
https://twitter.com/camjstark/status/921376614126043136
Totals:

Smith's best:

Nenshi's best:

 

[Silence&Motion]

It's striking just how widespread Nenshi's support was. Nonetheless, there are clear strongholds: the inner city and the Northeastern suburbs, which tend to be characterized by higher levels of minorities and lower incomes. Its the same pattern you see in David Miller's 2003 election victory in Toronto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2003#/media/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG

Basically the recipe for progressive mayors is to unite urbanites with lower-income immigrant communities in the suburbs.

 

[Social Justice]

It's striking just how widespread Nenshi's support was. Nonetheless, there are clear strongholds: the inner city and the Northeastern suburbs, which tend to be characterized by higher levels of minorities and lower incomes. Its the same pattern you see in David Miller's 2003 election victory in Toronto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2003#/media/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG

Basically the recipe for progressive mayors is to unite urbanites with lower-income immigrant communities in the suburbs.

According to my buddy, apparently CUPE told many city workers not to vote for Nenshi. I think Nenshi was trying to get private contractors to do city jobs.

Anyways, I thought it was interesting because usually CUPE backs left wing/progressive candidates.