Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

Go Elevated or try for Underground?

  • Work with the province and go with the Elevated option

    Votes: 57 69.5%
  • Try another approach and go for Underground option

    Votes: 22 26.8%
  • Cancel it altogether

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • Go with a BRT solution

    Votes: 2 2.4%

  • Total voters
    82
It's all debatable, but underground is probably the best option on most dimensions apart from cost, but its outrageously expensive so trade-offs are required. Elevated makes sense in this context and gives many of the same benefit at an expected lower cost. Of course, "expected lower cost" is doing a lot of work here - we don't know the actual cost of the downtown elevated section, as it hasn't had detailed design completed yet. An elevated line can be all three of these things: much cheaper than tunnel (1), outrageously expensive (2), and subject to cost overruns and delays (3).

I think that's the bigger picture takeaway here - we have to fix the cost escalation crisis of transit projects in Calgary (and Canada overall), and find ways to make these things cheaper and simpler while still being fast, efficient and high capacity. This is beyond what the Green line can solve as it's a problem that's been brewing for too long everywhere. It's systemic to the industry, not project-specific.

IMO, much of the back-and-forth on the Greenline over the years was important but ultimately myopic engineering approaches to the problem (e.g. adjusting alignments, station design) while failing to tackle the primary drivers in cost escalation that has more to do with things like political interference, long-term funding availability and predictability, procurement processes, standardization (or lack thereof), regulations and design standards.
I've followed the transit cost issue in other cities and it seems like most of the problem does not apply in Calgary. Some of them are the stations being overbuilt, using expensive construction methods to minimize disruptions, lack of standardization, and general labour/contracting/consulting costs. We don't have cross country standardization, but Waterloo's system was less than a billion dollars so it's definitely doable in North America. I wonder how much of this prep work, realignment of rail tracks, demolishing buildings, etc. that are part of the Green Line costs is as a % of total budget.
 
Normally I wouldn't obsess over what one candidate for mayor says but the creation of political parties changes the dynamics this election. The Communities First candidates in Wards 3, 4 and 7 are all running pro-Green Line North platforms but the mayoral candidate just said she's cool with a SE LRT that ends at the new arena. So when it comes time to vote, who calls the shots? Are we going to end up with a SE LRT that makes everyone walk into downtown if Calgarians elect 7 Communities First councillors plus Sharp oj Monday?

 
Normally I wouldn't obsess over what one candidate for mayor says but the creation of political parties changes the dynamics this election. The Communities First candidates in Wards 3, 4 and 7 are all running pro-Green Line North platforms but the mayoral candidate just said she's cool with a SE LRT that ends at the new arena. So when it comes time to vote, who calls the shots? Are we going to end up with a SE LRT that makes everyone walk into downtown if Calgarians elect 7 Communities First councillors plus Sharp oj Monday?

When the DT segment ends up back in front of council I believe a 'No' vote would put us in exactly that position. Most likely there would be a motion arising with direction to explore another option or maybe even cancel the whole thing, but I actually wouldn't be shocked if those motions didn't happen or fail and the outcome of the meeting is Arena-Shephard proceeding without any additional/alternative plan (at least for a while).

But then I suppose the province would probably pull their funding again because it fails to connect with 7th and council would have to do something.

The continued politicized/negative framing of elevated leaves me pretty pessimistic about how the public engagement will go (supposedly starting in January). Most progressives seem predisposed to hate elevated (IMO out of hatred for UCP more than anything else), and then there are lots of others who seem naturally inclined to typical NIMBY arguments like crime/aesthetics/noise, hate the price tag, or just don't care. Even people who are generally supportive of elevated (like me) have a lot of complaints/reservations about the project as a whole...I'll probably rant about that stuff more than enthusiastically supporting the elevated plan. So I think we could be looking at overwhelmingly negative feedback and a lot of rookie councillors early in their term.
 

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My biggest fear is this new council is afraid to make a decision either way and puts the decision to a referendum. Hopefully this new council has the courage to make a decision, elevated or underground and fully accepts the consequences of whatever they choose.
I don't even understand what decision there is for them to make. Province is pretty clear on not funding underground. Without a change in government, there's no way for any city or council to choose the underground option, as that is essentially choosing nothing. They'll vote for the elevated option just like how the previous council, regardless of political stripes, all voted for the arena, whether it's popular or not.
 
I don't even understand what decision there is for them to make. Province is pretty clear on not funding underground. Without a change in government, there's no way for any city or council to choose the underground option, as that is essentially choosing nothing. They'll vote for the elevated option just like how the previous council, regardless of political stripes, all voted for the arena, whether it's popular or not.
I am more curious what happens if/when the elevated line also comes in over-budget and delayed. Again, all we have really seen is the test-fit concept plan, nothing detailed with costing attached.

With some of the more provincially-aligned candidates somewhat indifferent on if the line ends in Victoria Park, will the provincial government step-in behind their alignment to get the job done at the increased cost?

Perhaps I am being too cynical and past history is clouding my judgement, but the current state of the downtown alignment and design doesn't feel like it's past the point where there can't be some further politicking and blame games to come about why we can't build it and it's the other layer of government's fault.
 
Most likely there would be a motion arising with direction to explore another option or maybe even cancel the whole thing, but I actually wouldn't be shocked if those motions didn't happen or fail and the outcome of the meeting is Arena-Shephard proceeding without any additional/alternative plan (at least for a while).
I think end the Green Line at the arena for now. We can connect to the Red Line at the Victoria Park/Stampede station via a pedestrian walkway of some sort. Probably the sidewalk on the east side of Macleod Trail is a good option. It can be weather protected with a roof from rain and snow.

Spend the saved money on extending the Blue line north and the Red line south and the Green line further south, potentially all the way to Seton.
 
Spend the saved money on extending the Blue line north and the Red line south and the Green line further south, potentially all the way to Seton.
Even the UCP rejected that, and the option to skirt up between the library and city hall.

The red line south is at capacity.

The green line having its own access to downtown pushes the need for the red line tunnel decades into the future.

Dumping green line users onto the red line south and east makes both lines much worse.
 
I am more curious what happens if/when the elevated line also comes in over-budget and delayed. Again, all we have really seen is the test-fit concept plan, nothing detailed with costing attached.

With some of the more provincially-aligned candidates somewhat indifferent on if the line ends in Victoria Park, will the provincial government step-in behind their alignment to get the job done at the increased cost?

Perhaps I am being too cynical and past history is clouding my judgement, but the current state of the downtown alignment and design doesn't feel like it's past the point where there can't be some further politicking and blame games to come about why we can't build it and it's the other layer of government's fault.
The hope is with North Calgary being a bit of a battleground area for the provincial election, we'll see some electoral promises like the arena to get the North LRT built. The province also seems interested in regional rail/HSR and the more connections you can build into the Central station, the better the business case. I don't necessarily think their concerns with the tunnelling is unfounded. It has ballooned in cost. While the argument was get the expensive part built first, then extend the surface portions north and south. The reality is, even from the Blue Line extension, surface extensions are no longer cheap. Even if the "expensive" downtown part is built, it would've remained a line to no where for at least a decade without the funds to extend it North or South.
 
for at least a decade without the funds to extend it North or South
This just isn't true. The isn't a program to fund it today, but everyone expects provincial and federal funds for the next decade long infrastructure program to flow from 2028-2040 or so (the end dates get fuzzy because projects get delayed, like the green line under the round that officially ends in 2027 while the start dates are fuzzy because few projects are ready in the first year).
 
This just isn't true. The isn't a program to fund it today, but everyone expects provincial and federal funds for the next decade long infrastructure program to flow from 2028-2040 or so (the end dates get fuzzy because projects get delayed, like the green line under the round that officially ends in 2027 while the start dates are fuzzy because few projects are ready in the first year).
And once funding appears, another half decade of design and build. It would've been a line to nowhere for at least a decade. A single station extension of the Blue Line is going to take 4-5 years, a full extension North or South is going to be even more
 
I'd like to see blank slate estimates. Yes, the numbers for underground are old numbers but it cannot be that hard to get those updated to 2026 dollars like the elevated alignment.

The underground alignment carries more risk because of the unknowns of what you cannot see and the potential cost overruns of those unknowns, reminding myself they were not doing shallow cut and cover (I believe the plan was to bore?). The elevated line is not going to be much of a bargain, leaving aside the property assessment debate, the land acquisition required (they would need to acquire the lot at 1st Street SW and 10th Ave) and existing building integration with the +15 won't cost nothing.

I lean more towards certainty but I'm naturally not much of a risk taker. Maybe an underground green line is that big risky project that Calgarians are longing for. To me though. if it goes well, I don't really see its effect on the city being that different from an elevated line, so you go down rather than up. And if it goes wrong... it could go really go wrong.

As I argue for the elevated line, I will say that the stations would need to be different than what was depicted, I don't want to see something as imposing as Sunalta Station on 10th Ave or in the downtown.
 

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