Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

[accord1999]

I thought the city already had the money set aside - $52 million/year provincial health refund, or whatever it was. And then the feds matched it, and the province was going to use the carbon tax to pay for it in the NDP days, but now I guess it's coming from an oil royalties windfall.

Even if the capital costs are funded, there's still significant operating costs. Earlier estimates were $40 million/year in net operating costs with ridership at 60k-65K/day. If ridership is only 30K/day then you're looking at $55-$60 million/year, a significant new cost considering the City already had to increasing funding to Transit due to the lingering impact of COVID on commuting. Will the City be able to find that money or will services elsewhere need to be cut?

 

[darwink]

I thought the city already had the money set aside - $52 million/year provincial health refund, or whatever it was. And then the feds matched it, and the province was going to use the carbon tax to pay for it in the NDP days, but now I guess it's coming from an oil royalties windfall.

Just north of $70 million a year from property taxes.

 

[MichaelS]

Does that include the cost of financing? The city's share of the capital was $50 million a year for 30 years, but then didn't the City also have to find almost an equivalent amount to finance the debt? Then, throw in the projected operating loss....

 

[DougB]

Does that include the cost of financing? The city's share of the capital was $50 million a year for 30 years, but then didn't the City also have to find almost an equivalent amount to finance the debt? Then, throw in the projected operating loss....

and if does include financing costs, what interest rate assumptions where used?

 

[darwink]

Does that include the cost of financing? The city's share of the capital was $50 million a year for 30 years, but then didn't the City also have to find almost an equivalent amount to finance the debt? Then, throw in the projected operating loss....

The cost of financing the city portion, yes.

And no, we won't know the exact rate. Given the long-time frames, it should be low. Here are indicative interest rates: https://acfa.gov.ab.ca/loan-form-script/rates.html

 

[DougB]

The cost of financing the city portion, yes.

And no, we won't know the exact rate. Given the long-time frames, it should be low. Here are indicative interest rates: https://acfa.gov.ab.ca/loan-form-script/rates.html

I doubt the City used anywhere near 5% in its assumptions

 

[darwink]

The city has spent $810 million bucks already without debt. They have ~$75.8 million in revenue assured every year. Should have ended the year with ~$110 million in the green line reserve.

 

[O-tac]

$4K, the donation cap, does not buy much influence

So R-Star had nothing to do with her current scheme to gift oil companies millions of dollars to cleanup their orphan wells which they are already legally obligated to do? There are tons of questions and she isn't being transparent at all.

‘Huge concern’: Opposition says Alberta premier should come clean on campaign funding | Globalnews.ca

The NDP says it's a "huge concern" that before Smith re-entered politics, she lobbied for an oil well cleanup bailout that she made a government priority when she became premier.

globalnews.ca

 

[badc0ffee]

Even if the capital costs are funded, there's still significant operating costs. Earlier estimates were $40 million/year in net operating costs with ridership at 60k-65K/day. If ridership is only 30K/day then you're looking at $55-$60 million/year, a significant new cost considering the City already had to increasing funding to Transit due to the lingering impact of COVID on commuting. Will the City be able to find that money or will services elsewhere need to be cut?

I read that ridership is back to 80% of pre-Covid. Also we don't know enough to take a ridership number and turn that into yearly revenue. It's not clear how many of these are going to be new, or existing riders, and how this will affect staffing-intensive bus operations. So I think the existing projections are still what we should be using, not double the number pulled from thin air.

I read a few years back that operations for the red line cost like 25 cents per rider, mainly because there's one driver hauling around 8 buses worth of passengers. The easier maintenance of electric vehicles doesn't hurt either.

 

[DougB]

So R-Star had nothing to do with her current scheme to gift oil companies millions of dollars to cleanup their orphan wells which they are already legally obligated to do? There are tons of questions and she isn't being transparent at all.

‘Huge concern’: Opposition says Alberta premier should come clean on campaign funding | Globalnews.ca

The NDP says it's a "huge concern" that before Smith re-entered politics, she lobbied for an oil well cleanup bailout that she made a government priority when she became premier.

globalnews.ca

If the NDP has evidence that individuals exceeded the $4,300 per donor cap, it is more than free to hand over the documents to Elections Alberta:

Leadership Contestants - Elections Alberta

A leadership contestant is a person seeking to be the leader of a registered party. A leadership contest is the party’s process to select a new leader. Leadership contestants must register with Elections Alberta, maintain up-to-date registration information, and submit a financial return to...

www.elections.ab.ca

R-Star is stupid, but linking it to campaign contributions is baseless. Of course political communications is based on the principle that if you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes truth.

Rachel Notely used to be a labor lawyer. Is she beholden to public sector unions who are much more capable at mobilizing their membership to make small campaign donations and volunteer than oil companies would be at mobilizing their employees and shareholders?

 

[DougB]

I read that ridership is back to 80% of pre-Covid. Also we don't know enough to take a ridership number and turn that into yearly revenue. It's not clear how many of these are going to be new, or existing riders, and how this will affect staffing-intensive bus operations. So I think the existing projections are still what we should be using, not double the number pulled from thin air.

I read a few years back that operations for the red line cost like 25 cents per rider, mainly because there's one driver hauling around 8 buses worth of passengers. The easier maintenance of electric vehicles doesn't hurt either.

Does the Green Line stand any chance of approaching Red Line ridership levels even through its capital costs will be several multiples of the Red Line?

 

[badc0ffee]

Does the Green Line stand any chance of approaching Red Line ridership levels even through its capital costs will be several multiples of the Red Line?

No, but its operational costs should scale in a similar way.

 

[O-tac]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588332240056233984

Also of note:

@ryanjespersen
Covered a lot in front of a packed house! Of note: Premier says trains from #yyc & #yeg airports to downtown is a top priority

 

[lemongrab]

If the NDP has evidence that individuals exceeded the $4,300 per donor cap, it is more than free to hand over the documents to Elections Alberta:

Leadership Contestants - Elections Alberta

A leadership contestant is a person seeking to be the leader of a registered party. A leadership contest is the party’s process to select a new leader. Leadership contestants must register with Elections Alberta, maintain up-to-date registration information, and submit a financial return to...

www.elections.ab.ca

R-Star is stupid, but linking it to campaign contributions is baseless. Of course political communications is based on the principle that if you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes truth.

Rachel Notely used to be a labor lawyer. Is she beholden to public sector unions who are much more capable at mobilizing their membership to make small campaign donations and volunteer than oil companies would be at mobilizing their employees and shareholders?

What about Third party advertising and advocacy groups?

 

[O-tac]

What about Third party advertising and advocacy groups?

Speaking of which it sounds like a wealthy Edmonton developer funneled $100K into pro Smith advertisements at hockey games, violating the $30K corporate donation limit.

Network of Companies Linked to Wealthy Developer Flowed $100,000 to Group Behind Pro-Danielle Smith NHL Hockey Ads

Companies linked to developer J. Cameron Allard made big donations to a third party advertising group, despite $30,000 contribution limit

pressprogress.ca