Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

[lemongrab]

A good transit project is not good at any cost, and at some point, the costs are too high to justify.

Part of the problem is a bad procurement strategy, lack of civil service capacity, as well as high risk and inflation from (almost entirely conservative) political actors. Some of these could in theory be fixed sooner than others, but that's a discussion for another time.

The other part of the problem is the assumption that road space is sacrosanct in the centre city. That's the fundamental assumption that leads to lengthy tunnelling in uncertain conditions, which then leads (via the procurement strategy) to preposterous cost blowouts because the private sector is being used to price in risk. And that's why there are these arguments over a wildly expensive tunnel, or an expensive and low-quality elevated stub.

But we have plenty of road space in the downtown! Traffic volumes are down from 15 years ago; there's more road space than ever! There is no need to spend a billion dollars tunnelling in the east Beltline to avoid an at-grade crossing of Macleod to maintain road capacity. Macleod has been down one lane (and frequently two lanes) for the past few years due to the Vic Park LRT reconstruction, and the world hasn't ended.

Spot on. And Macleods shouldn't really be that much different than present timing - a 1-way vs 1-way should be pretty easy. It's intersections with tons of motions that get thrown off by train signals. And even if it ends up being a problem, there are roads-based solutions (and roads budgets!) that can mitigate it - like extending the CPKC underpasses south another 1.5 blocks...though given the chokepoints of 9th and 7th to the north that might only make sense on 1st St SE.

Except that when provided with the analysis that was completed you don't like the outcome. I'd argue you want to overweight deliverability, considering financial capacity is also already included. The work was done, it just doesn't fit with your perceived best outcome. Take out community well being, prosperous economy, urban development and environment if you want, Nose Creek still doesn't come out on top.

I'm not sure if Michael was talking about only this one particular decision; though I think it's fair to question the $355M vs $415M figures for Nose Creek vs the road based alignments - obviously the figures are way out of whack now, but would Centre St really be only 17% more expensive than Nose Creek? Before even considering the unprecedented inflation issues I think it's fair to say that most of the costing assumptions in a lot of these decisions have been highly flawed.

But I suspect he was talking more broadly about the GL as a whole. There have been a lot of 51/49 decisions along the way which were justified at the time based on X, Y, and Z. But years later X turned out to be false, Y 50% off, and only Z is still true. But these decisions have remained considered sacrosanct, and adjustments have had to come within their parameters. The most important decisions weren't studied to death, but rather figuring out how to implement them is where the analysis paralysis has come in.

 

[MichaelS]

God love message boards lol. We atleast have the money for arts common, event centre, bmo…but not the fieldhouse at $200M…..yet, lets find billions for the NC Line

And not much else for the foreseeable future due to the spending on those items.

Hopefully most of you own your own home, because despite having sky high offsite levies (which coincidently make the cost of housing higher, and makes us less competitive for non-residential tax base), we don't have much capacity to bring on things like sanitary lift stations or water pumps to allow more new communities to get built. Thus, less housing, despite high demand. Doesn't seem like there will be much price relief going forward. Good thing Council declared a housing emergency though.

And, when it comes to redevelopment accommodating all of this, well, not much left in the kitty for things like parks upgrades, rec centre upgrades (we did just close the Beltline, Inglewood and Eau Claire YMCA to boot), or further Main Street enhancements. So, enjoy sharing the existing amenities/infrastructure with even more and more people.

 

[darwink]

like extending the CPKC underpasses south another 1.5 blocks...though given the chokepoints of 9th and 7th to the north that might only make sense on 1st St SE.

Likely cheaper to elevate the train than to dig out 22,000+ cubic metres of dirt, plus you know, utility relocations! Including figuring out how you're going to continuously pump out ground water plus bringing the entire thing to modern storm resiliency standards.

 

[konradiical]

Do you think by next year they will agree on a new alignment and start construction? Or will this planning drag out another 3 years lol? Would they still be able to do work for the non DT stations as they likely wont change the alignment for that part whenever it gets built?

I'm in the architecture field, so not much planning background so I wont weigh in on what is the best way to go forward. I just want the line to go into the SE since I live there so I was excited for the Shepard station being operational in 2027.

 

[darwink]

Do you think by next year they will agree on a new alignment and start construction?

I think they (the city and the province) won't agree, but construction will start, on the province's plan.

And no, a SE train from Seton to Inglewood ain't going to start until there is assurance on the central section.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

until there is assurance on the central section

I see this as the panels role but...

Has there been any information come out on the future decision making process? Has the province given any more details on the "third-party" panel, like who's on it. I also wonder what criteria the panel will evaluate things on, IMO it should be as simple as; "we looked at three options that give Calgarians the best train for the lowest cost. We chose this options because..."

Also, what are people's thoughts on taking away decision making like this away from council? They're not experts, even if they do represent Calgarians.

How I see it...

Seton to Events Centre, proceed as is.
-Choosing how to get through downtown is the decision the province will ask the "third-party" panel to make.

Events Centre to Bow River, elevate on 3rd Street SW making City Hall a transfer point to Red/Blue (find the best route to connect to whatever you do north of the bow, which you need to decide).
-The panel will decide to go north out of the downtown into nose creek with a heavy rail line (that is what I think they're talking about when they mention Nose Creek, it makes no sense to have an LRT and a heavy rail line beside one another).

Bow to 16th Ave, surface on Edmonton Trail (getting to Centre Street from 3rd just doesn't work)
-Elevate it over 16th Avenue to get to Centre Street and take Centre Street to go north from there.

 

[darwink]

Has there been any information come out on the future decision making process? Has the province given any more details on the "third-party" panel, like who's on it.

Nope. Deliver seton to north pointe for the original budget with an elevated central section, with only a requirement that it skirt the event centre and provide transfer point(s) to the red and blue lines.

 

[lemongrab]

Likely cheaper to elevate the train than to dig out 22,000+ cubic metres of dirt, plus you know, utility relocations! Including figuring out how you're going to continuously pump out ground water plus bringing the entire thing to modern storm resiliency standards.

View attachment 596025

All fun challenges for the Roads Dept! I don't actually think it would be necessary; I'm just saying to look at the possible mitigations if a 'compromise' like running at-grade across Macleod Trails proves untenable. But I suspect we'd weigh this against various other roads priorities and it would lose. So I'm not sure why it has to be so critical to avoid now...

 

[ahuch]

Do you think by next year they will agree on a new alignment and start construction? Or will this planning drag out another 3 years lol? Would they still be able to do work for the non DT stations as they likely wont change the alignment for that part whenever it gets built?

I'm in the architecture field, so not much planning background so I wont weigh in on what is the best way to go forward. I just want the line to go into the SE since I live there so I was excited for the Shepard station being operational in 2027.

I see it as more of a challenge from an execution standpoint than anything. This is a megaproject that was going to be shovel ready in about a months time. You have huge companies that are going to have to either lay off resources or re-allocate them, and not start to pick up the other talent they need. You can't just wind down projects like this on a whim and expect them to start back up again in a short period of time.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

seton to north pointe for the original budget

Really?! I mean that isn't going to happen. You couldn't build that using a child's wooden train.

 

[darwink]

Really?! I mean that isn't going to happen. You couldn't build that using a child's wooden train.

The Premier has policy wishes. One of those wishes is initial estimates are 100% accurate even when scope is changed and the second is that inflation doesn't exist.

 

[MichaelS]

I see it as more of a challenge from an execution standpoint than anything. This is a megaproject that was going to be shovel ready in about a months time. You have huge companies that are going to have to either lay off resources or re-allocate them, and not start to pick up the other talent they need. You can't just wind down projects like this on a whim and expect them to start back up again in a short period of time.

I don't think the bolded part was true. Weren't we only at 60% design costs? Even if the costs were contained, I don't think the project was at a stage to begin construction in that timeframe. (waiting on @accord1999 to provide the correct information.....)

 

[Tothewest]

This thread is amazing hot garbage rn, in a good way, sharing ideas for something none of us have control over...luckily, one way or another, we will have a green line. If I could, would the best way to describe the different perspectives/options going forward be, regardless of who is paying or responsible for which section

SE
1) above ground/grade line from atleast Ramsay if not Seton, to Scotia Place. Above ground section to city hall/7th
2) same as above, current subway plan from Scotia Place to beltline and down centre st
3) same as above, at grade from Scotia Place down 11th , then down centre st? (not sure how valid, but i know someone mentioned it)

NC
1) A line from "Grand Central/City Hall" down Nose Creek in conjunction with Airport Line. Goes inner city at beddington trail north (this may not actually be the Green Line, so both can be true)
2)Continue Green Line above ground at city hall, over bow, then up edmonton trail (tunnel or at grade)
3)Continue green line above ground at city hall, over the bow, then up centre st (tunnel or at grade)
4) Continue centre st downtown line, over the bow, up centre street (tunnel or at grade)

It's hard to track the changes over the years, and all the alternate citizen group pitches...but does that seem to cover it?

 

[outoftheice]

So for the last week or so, the UCP was saying that their intervention was going to allow a train to be built down to Seton. The premier said as much to the media just yesterday. Today the minister in charge of delivering the project is now saying Shepard. Maybe more. So instead of getting Eau Claire to Lynnwood with the ability to easily build a future extension down to Shepard, the province is apparently going to deliver East Village to Shepard with no possibility of a beltline, downtown or north central extension and still the need for future extensions southbound.

Curious if this changes people's thoughts on the matter? I get people being excited about building the entire south east section at the expense of downtown but not even getting past Shepard and also not getting into downtown? Seems like a dramatically crappier project plan and that doesn't start to get into the fact this new plan is going to cost a lot of people their jobs and flush a lot of money down the tubes on penalties that could have otherwise been spent on infrastructure

https://twitter.com/x/status/1834626937412792678

 

[CalgaryTiger]

So for the last week or so, the UCP was saying that their intervention was going to allow a train to be built down to Seton. The premier said as much to the media just yesterday. Today the minister in charge of delivering the project is now saying Shepard. Maybe more. So instead of getting Eau Claire to Lynnwood with the ability to easily build a future extension down to Shepard, the province is apparently going to deliver East Village to Shepard with no possibility of a beltline, downtown or north central extension and still the need for future extensions southbound.

Curious if this changes people's thoughts on the matter? I get people being excited about building the entire south east section at the expense of downtown but not even getting past Shepard and also not getting into downtown? Seems like a dramatically crappier project plan and that doesn't start to get into the fact this new plan is going to cost a lot of people their jobs and flush a lot of money down the tubes on penalties that could have otherwise been spent on infrastructure

https://twitter.com/x/status/1834626937412792678

What you said isn't exactly what he said, it is a short video so won't take much of your time. He doesn't say it will end at Shepard. Here's some screen grabs of the closes captions.

So take from that what you will. We don't know what it will do downtown or even north of Shepard. And the third-party panel, looks more like an engineering firm? We still have no idea what the province has asked this engineering firm to do or who the engineering firm is?

The media sucks, how are they not asking these questions?