Here's a real
August quality post for you guys. In typical, I know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy fashion, a good buddy of mine just had a new custom home built. His builder is friends with another builder who is friends with the Eberle family. This builder with whom I share a tenuous 3rd degree relationship says that he wants to show off a house he just built to Jordan and his dad because he thinks Jordan might be interested in something similar.
Fun right? 
So I had to go look up Eberle's background naturally. I'd always assumed he was a Saskatchewan boy, but that isn't totally the case. Turns out Eberle's family moved here from Regina when he was 15. He probably didn't spend much time here in that first stint because he would have been back in Regina playing for the Pats by the time he was 16. So he maybe lived here about a year before junior and he's probably spent a number of summers here along the way too because by all accounts his parents still live here (Based on Wikipedia and this 3rd degree connection). He also happens to have gotten married in Calgary on July 22nd of 2017. An event no doubt planned while he was still an Oiler. So he definitely has a decent Calgary connection.
NHLers living in Calgary while not playing here isn't totally unheard of. As an example I've heard that Brent Seabrook of the Chicago Blackhawks lives here in the off season. Having a solid Calgary connection definitely doesn't hurt though. Brouwer was apparently building a house here before he even signed. Travis Hamonic also really wanted to be in Western Canada to be close to home (Winnipeg), hence partly why he ended up here. Calgary and southern Alberta area guys like Versteeg, Setoguchi, Raymond, Colbourne and Shinkaruk have also passed through the organization in recent years. Why not live and work near one another? Doesn't sound so crazy.
Eberle is an UFA at the end of the 2018-19. His infamous $6M x 6Y deal signed by the Oilers will have expired and let's face it the Islanders aren't looking like a squad that's too set up for short term success right now. With the deals that a number of UFAs have recently signed, why wouldn't you test the open market? At the end of next season Eberle will have just turned 29. Here's what his production in the first 5 years of that 6 year deal look like:
The only season he was below 50pts he missed 11 games. Otherwise, he's in a band between 50-65pts and didn't score less than 20 goals. For the record his best season came before his current contract:
It's doubtful he'll ever revisit those numbers, but it's out there as a potential upside risk. His final season in NY could have a lot to say about the price he could fetch on the open market. Maybe he can re-up with someone at $6M if he has another season around 60pts. Maybe he shows some signs of decline and can come a little cheaper. He also isn't totally in control of his own fate either. He doesn't have any trade protection and could easily be dealt by a rebuilding Islanders team that has no interest in watching another high profile asset walk for nothing. So maybe he ends the season playing for a contender and lines himself up for an extension there.
There isn't a huge amount to work with. A guy with some decent local connections is probably headed for the free market. It isn't like Brayden Point or Mike Green will ever play here. It's enough to have a little summer fun though. Especially when the August inter-season doldrums are setting in hard. So why not play the scenario out?
The Flames cap situation is tight next year. Signed roster players are taking up about $61M right now. The cap is $79.5M as it stands. Let's make a few wild guesses. Let's say next year's key RFAs Tkachuk and Bennett are signed for a combined $9.75M. Why that number? Well because I guess Bennett would have a solid but not mind blowing season and signed a decent Backlund's last contract like $3M deal. I'm also assuming Tkachuk shoots into the stratosphere and signs a deal matching Gaudreau and Giordano in dollars at $6.75M. Let's say Tree waives his magic wand and gets Hanifin done long term under $5M at $4.8M. Let's also say the 12th starting forward and 6th starting d-man slots will come from internal development at a cheap $900K a pop. It doesn't matter who. Let's say Dube and Andersson for the hell of it. Maybe it's Klimchuk and Valimaki, who cares. Anyway, if we assume that the cap climbs by about $2M, a respectable ~2.5% that leaves the team with $4.2M...
to sign a starting goalie. Right... that.
So, we're already totally capped out as it is. Well, we need a roster spot on the right wing anyway. So let's trade Frolik. His $4.3M comes off, provided we don't have to take roster players back. That leaves the Flames with that amount of money. Let's also say that since Tree is working mostly with RFAs (and let's face it he isn't known as
the Wizard for nothing) he shaves another $1M off of those other deals. RFA negotations are the man's sweet spot afterall. That gives $5.3M. Maybe that's enough? Maybe you have to sell Stone too? Which isn't out of the question. Lots of people don't think his game is very good. And with Valimaki, Kylington and Andersson waiting in the wings, there's reason to think Tree might want to push the pipeline along this season. So his $3.5M coming off the books give $8.8M. That's more than enough to do Eberle even if he does have another 76 point season. It's an interesting thought. A right wing depth chart that goes...
Lindholm
Eberle
Neal
Czarnik (He's on contract, but maybe someone else takes the job. Doesn't matter.)
...looks mighty nice. Especially when you fill in the whole roster.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Eberle
Bennett - Ryan - Neal
Dube(?) - Jankowski - Czarnik(?)
That's probably the deepest Flames roster since I was a wee little lad and the Flames were cup contenders. Somehow that isn't the end of it either.
Interestingly, Treliving is supposed to have called Toronto recently to inquire about Calgary native, American raised, Swedish bread and trained Willian Nylander. And Toronto for their part is alleged to have listened. He's younger and better than Eberle. He's also an RFA who looks too pricey for Toronto to afford with Matthews and Marner following up after Tavares next year. He'd cost Calgary in assets to procure, but if you can preserve the other 8 of my top 9 there and swap Eberle for Nylander that's one hell of a lineup.
There is a big wrinkle in all this, Seattle. They're supposed to expand the league as early as next year. And the expansion draft is assumed to follow the same rules as the last one. With all that forward depth, the Flames would definitely pick the 1G-7F-3D protection structure over the 1G-4F-4D one. So you get:
Goalie 1 - whomever that may be
Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm
Backlund
Neal
Takchuk
Eberle/Nylaner
Giordano
Brodie
Hanifin
Forcing you to expose Bennett, Jankowski, Ryan and Hamonic. (Assuming Stone was already traded.)
That's a nastly little list of potentially lost assets. Best case is probably trading futures to get them to take Ryan. Still, not cool.
Anyway, that's all I've got. I hope that helped scratch your summer hockey itch!
I know writing it did for me.
