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Calgary Municipal Politics

Which mayoral candidate do you intend to vote for in 2021?

  • Jeremy Farkas

    Votes: 3 5.1%

  • Jyoti Gondek

    Votes: 43 72.9%

  • Brad Field

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Jan Damery

    Votes: 11 18.6%

  • Jeff Davison

    Votes: 2 3.4%

  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    59
gsunnyg said:
He fully supports more greenfield development. Apparently, he used to work for a suburban developer as well. His answer on mixed land use was atrocious.

IMO I think Jan Damery is the best candidate and as a progressive voter, it's hard to make a case otherwise. Her views are very progressive and forward-thinking. For example, she acknowledges youth are leaving the city not only due to poor economic opportunities but due to other factors as well like lack of culture, vibrancy, etc. She's focused on building affordable housing in the inner city by providing the "missing middle" we always talk about this on the development forums. Another thing I got sold on was that she would push for a large tech hub downtown for students, helping to not only create vibrancy downtown but fixing the skills shortage limiting our tech growth. It's almost as if her policies are too good to be true. Gondek and Farkas have got way too much clout just because they're councilors. I really could care less about strategic voting. Let's just say Farkas does win, I highly doubt after his 4-year gong show people will want to elect someone like him ever again. A considerable amount of votes for Jan would likely encourage her to re-run in 2025. Just remember, Nenshi came out of the blue, strategic voting back then would have never allowed us to be rewarded with such a competent mayor. I'll take my chances this election.
Click to expand...

You're factually wrong about Nenshi, he was statistically tied as one of the three top candidates in the poll closest to the election. Certainly, months before the election he was not well known, but by this point 11 years ago, he was well known and well supported. He was doing better in the polls at this time in 2010 than Jeff Davison, Brad Field, and Jan Damery are today, put together.

From discussions I've seen, I think there are two approaches to voting. One is the Tinder model, where you are searching for true love, and you need to hold out for someone that is going to fit your every need -- a vote is an expression of your purest desires. One is the Transit model, where you pick the candidate that has the best chance of getting you closer to where you want to go -- a vote is a practical choice that you use to maximize your power. And I'm certainly more on the utilitarian side; I want to vote in the way that will most likely result in the most acceptable outcome, but I recognize that there are different perspectives worthy of respect.

As a lesson that could be learned from 2010 mayoral elections, think of Rob Ford. He only served one term that is in the dictionary under "4-year gong show". When he was elected, the Sheppard East LRT project was fully funded from all three levels of government and was under construction; he cancelled it and it hasn't been touched in the eleven years since. Four more planned LRT lines would have been open today with the Transit City plan, that have not been built. If a Farkas-led council cancels the Green Line, it's not a four year delay. In 2025 if the next council is more favourable, they won't just write a check. The plans will be old and out of date, there will need to be politicking, there will need to be public engagement and vote wrangling and so on. Then after multiple rounds of revisions, updates, and so on, assuming that both the federal and provincial governments are in favour, it might get funded and could begin the RFP process; bottom line, it'll add a decade to completion. And that's the best case -- Seattle was on the verge of building a subway system in 1968, and it lost a vote and took 40 years for the city to start building rail.

But I'm shocked to hear anyone, posting in Alberta in September 2021, as the health care system collapses and people are dying for no good reason -- 79 in the past week, to say that it doesn't matter if your vote results in an incompetent right-wing ideologue having power for four years. What's the worst that can happen?
 
“Certainly, months before the election he was not well known, but by this point 11 years ago, he was well known and well supported.”

Was he though... Certainly he was in the mix. But there is also that our race is a bit more compressed due to the federal election, so instead of labour day onward, it is Tuesday onward.

And as humans we are really good at backremembering something differently to fit what developed as the core narrative, our brains our story machines. Also, early in the campaign the MAIN outreach audience for Nenshi? Calgary Puck, Beyond.ca, and Skyscraper Page. These were the most active places where Calgarians were online that were distinctly 'Calgary' and target-able. So those who were around then on those forums probably have a very different story in their brain!

Anyways, here is a chart of polls, and some articles from the time, because remember, even in late September, the result from deciding definitively too early in the race would have meant either Mayor Higgins or McIver, and if there is someone you like, but you're not sure about, you can always strategically vote in the ballot box. Being firmly decided too early denies even the opportunity for the race to matter. Not denying that many are firmly decided, just that if you are firmly decided to stop someone else, instead of really liking them, then you're steering the election into a suboptimal outcome for ya.
1632065125409.png


There will be many polls . . .​

. . . on Calgary’s hopping mayoral race with unwieldy field of 17 candidates.

Zinc Research put out a poll Wednesday suggesting Rick McIver, Barb Higgins and Naheed Nenshi are the top three to become Calgary’s next mayor. The poll said McIver has 40 per cent of the decided vote, Higgins has 27 per cent and Nenshi has 12 per cent.

The full survey can be found here:


About 450 Calgarians were surveyed online between Sept. 3-7. Zinc Research, which was founded four years ago, said the sample is representative of the city as it relates to region, gender and age.

“We prefer to use online panels as they elicit more honest responses, reduce social desirability bias and we are better able to manage mode effects. Further, with response rates for telephone surveys dropping below 10 per cent and people migrating to cell phones, we are more comfortable conducting public opinion research online,” said a news release.

However, only 306 of those polled said they will definitely vote. Brian Singh, president and managing director of Zinc Research, also acknowledged in an interview he’s volunteering for Nenshi’s campaign.

But he said the poll is neutral.

However, it appears Higgins’ campaign team doesn’t think the poll is reflective of Calgarians’ voting intentions. On Wednesday afternoon, shortly after the Zinc poll was released, they made sure they sent reporters a poll with data from early August that shows Higgins in first place, McIver in second place and Nenshi in sixth place.

With 44.2 % undecided, Nenshi was at 8.2% decided. That meant that 4.6% of people taking the poll chose Nenshi that day.
1632061670695.png

And this is from Nenshi's own pollster, on how he saw the race re:support:
1632062263638.png

His pollster even identifies the turning point as an exchange between Nenshi and the Cheif of Police in the media on September 23rd.
 
Last edited:
Jan Damery's Transit Plan Announcement "Network 2030" Link
  • 9 km of LRT extensions
  • 50 km of new BRT
  • Serving at least 70,500 riders
  • Improving connectivity of all quadrants and 64 neighbourhoods
  • $1.6 billion in capital budget
Selected Projects:
1632148871830.png

Additional Initiatives:
  • LRT, MAX Routes and primary transit network - 15 minute frequency, rising to 10
  • LRT, BRT Feeder routes - switch to on demand if it saves money, improves service
  • Westbrook, Mount Royal University, CFB Currie, Marda Loop Streetcar Connectivity Study - the 37th Street streetcar might not be the best option since the question was connecting MRU -- with a different question, maybe a different answer?
  • Foothills Hospital, the Alberta Children’s Hospital and the LRT - study service impacts of moving MAX Orange to Lions Park to increase connectivity. Implement either that or NW Hub concept
A map:
1632149083692.png


Evaluation and selection of projects table: Link
 
Gotta admit I'm pretty torn on how to vote in the municipal election. I really like Damery, however I'm really concerned about Farkas winning the election. Right now it looks like Gondek has the best chance of beating him. But I'd hate to see the vote split and end up with a mayor like Farkas. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
Urban Outdoorsman said:
Gotta admit I'm pretty torn on how to vote in the municipal election. I really like Damery, however I'm really concerned about Farkas winning the election. Right now it looks like Gondek has the best chance of beating him. But I'd hate to see the vote split and end up with a mayor like Farkas. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Click to expand...
Strategic voting is for the ballot box, not a month out. We have one (not reliable poll) that has Gondek in shooting distance. But every other poll has Gondek still in her range, 20 points back. And nothing has really happened to explain why she would suddenly be neck-in-neck.
 
What?!? What is going on? Are we being pranked as an electorate?

While I hope he is okay, the reason for dropping out seems strange. If you are so susceptible to illness that you need to stop a campaign due to a potential exposure, I am not sure how you thought it would be possible to handle the demands of a job like mayor.
 
It is unfortunate that he is sick, and I do hope he recovers, but it seems strange that he thought he could handle the challenges and duties of being mayor, if he physically struggled to even campaign. Maybe this will be a reality check for him.
 
A new poll is out, two horse race between Farkas and Gondek:
calgary.ctvnews.ca

Calgary's crowded mayoral contest currently a 'two-horse race': poll

According to a recent poll, Jeromy Farkas and Jyoti Gondek are currently well ahead of the mayoral candidate pack when it comes to voter support.
calgary.ctvnews.ca calgary.ctvnews.ca

Other things to note, apparently Hehr had 3%, which I am amazed at, which is more than what Damery had at 2%. At only 6%, Davison has to be realizing he is not as well liked as he thought.
 
28% unsure. I wonder if Farkas is capable of getting many of those votes?
 
I still like Damery the best as a candidate, but will be watching the polls as we get closer to election day, especially if it starts to turn to a two candidate race.
 
Surrealplaces said:
I still like Damery the best as a candidate, but will be watching the polls as we get closer to election day, especially if it starts to turn to a two candidate race.
Click to expand...
I think there are a lot of undecided voters doing the same thing, waiting until close to voting time. That latest poll will start to shake things up, I'm curious to see what the next poll will look like.
 
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