Oddball
Senior Member
Yup. That was the "optimistic" read. This is the "realistic" read. BC sucks.
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Calgary & Alberta Economy
- Thread starter Oddball
- Start date
Yup. That was the "optimistic" read. This is the "realistic" read. BC sucks.
darwink
Senior Member
The BC blocks a permit, KMX applies to the NEB to not need permits from the province and it is done. Just like Vurnaby’s permits. The federal government wouldn’t have spent all the political capital and real money approving the line just to back down now.
And no, that is not what happened to energy east. Energy east was too expensive a project (because it is long) and once KMX and keystone xl were approved it didn’t make sense anymore. It was always a project of last resort.
And no, that is not what happened to energy east. Energy east was too expensive a project (because it is long) and once KMX and keystone xl were approved it didn’t make sense anymore. It was always a project of last resort.
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
Trudeau must have read this blog (ha!). From Edmonton, he just pledged his support for the Trans Mountain pipeline and stated 'That pipeline will get built'. The skeptic in me still wonders whether he would have said that if he was not in Alberta today.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
Either way, this is cause for hope. Glad to hear he doesn't plan on turning his back on us. He has lied in the past though, so we'll see.
darwink
Senior Member
On BC the Natural Resources Minister said. :
“So far it says it’s going to talk to people. It has the right to talk to people.”
However, Carr noted, “if there are attempts at unusual or unnecessary delay, the National Energy Board has the tools available to make sure that these decisions are made in a timely way.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/4002785/...lays-on-trans-mountain-federal-minister-says/
“So far it says it’s going to talk to people. It has the right to talk to people.”
However, Carr noted, “if there are attempts at unusual or unnecessary delay, the National Energy Board has the tools available to make sure that these decisions are made in a timely way.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/4002785/...lays-on-trans-mountain-federal-minister-says/
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
Lots of positive signals from the federal government. Hopefully it turns into swift action and not protracted debate. This pipeline is already a year behind schedule.
On a dire note, the U.S. has forecast domestic production at 11 million barrels per day in 2018. First time it has achieved this level in over 40 years. It is looking more and more like they will not need Canada's oil soon.
On a dire note, the U.S. has forecast domestic production at 11 million barrels per day in 2018. First time it has achieved this level in over 40 years. It is looking more and more like they will not need Canada's oil soon.
darwink
Senior Member
Swift action ... the thing is BC has to take action or refuse to take action before any response can be made. And then the process can start. Don’t expect political ‘action’ - or even political direction to the NEB to overrule permits and such. That is a one way ticket to getting the approval tossed by a court. The NEB on its own will run the process.
Oddball
Senior Member
Source Table: CANSIM 282-0135
The end of January Labour Force Survey is out. Looks like a pretty good month for Calgary. The Labour force grew from 901.4K to 910.4K. Employment rose from 834.1K to 840.9K, which may be the all time high. At least the highest from the period I looked at (Sep-16 to Present). Unemployment was also up 67.3K to 69.5K, which isn't as nice to hear, but it's largely been offset. Growing Employment and Unemployment in the same month pretty much guarantees a growing participation rate, which was up pretty significantly, a single month climb on 0.7% to 74.0%. So a good month all round even though the end result was a rise in the unemployment rate for Calgary from 7.5% to 7.6%. I'll take those underlying increases any day though. Edmonton's unemployment rate remained constant at 7.2%, but they actually lost over 3,000 jobs.
Source Table: CANSIM 282-101
The seasonally adjusted data doesn't have the Full-Time/Part-Time split so I had to look at the unadjusted figures. Almost all the growth appears to have been in full-time employment! Both actually grew which is good, but the seasonally unadjusted figures, which are a little different, showed Full-Time Employment growth from 674.3K to 680.1K and Part-Time Employment Growth from 157.1K to 157.7K.
The end of January Labour Force Survey is out. Looks like a pretty good month for Calgary. The Labour force grew from 901.4K to 910.4K. Employment rose from 834.1K to 840.9K, which may be the all time high. At least the highest from the period I looked at (Sep-16 to Present). Unemployment was also up 67.3K to 69.5K, which isn't as nice to hear, but it's largely been offset. Growing Employment and Unemployment in the same month pretty much guarantees a growing participation rate, which was up pretty significantly, a single month climb on 0.7% to 74.0%. So a good month all round even though the end result was a rise in the unemployment rate for Calgary from 7.5% to 7.6%. I'll take those underlying increases any day though. Edmonton's unemployment rate remained constant at 7.2%, but they actually lost over 3,000 jobs.
Source Table: CANSIM 282-101
The seasonally adjusted data doesn't have the Full-Time/Part-Time split so I had to look at the unadjusted figures. Almost all the growth appears to have been in full-time employment! Both actually grew which is good, but the seasonally unadjusted figures, which are a little different, showed Full-Time Employment growth from 674.3K to 680.1K and Part-Time Employment Growth from 157.1K to 157.7K.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
Those are great numbers for us! How did Edmonton's unemployment rate not shift when losing 3000 jobs though? Did they also see a population loss then? That's worrisome.
Oddball
Senior Member
Their participation rate reduced from 72.8% to 72.2%. So less people in the working aged population (15+) were interested in working (either working or looking for work).
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
Ohhh I see, just a lot of people retiring and/or going back to school then I suppose
Oddball
Senior Member
More or less. It probably also contains a cohort of disenchanted job hunters who have called it quits for now and remain unemployed but aren't presently looking for work.
darwink
Senior Member
Also it contains one income families that after layoffs or a loss of hours became or tried to become two income families, going back to one income families.
Oddball
Senior Member
The February LFS stats are out. There's an interesting situation this month. For the second consecutive month, Calgary's Unemployment Rate has climbed. We went from a 2 year low at 7.5% back in December, back to 7.9% in February. This isn't great to be sure, but in a relative sense it isn't really so bad. Before the rate was 7.7% in november the first month with a lower unemployment rate is January 2016. So yes it's higher, but it's by no means as bad as what we've seen in the last couple of years.
As you'd expect the primary cause was an increase in the number of unemployed. The 67.3 thousand unemployed persons in the Calgary CMA back in December was the lowest since January 2016. We're back up to 72.4 thousand. which is slightly better than where we were back in October (73.2K).
But on the flip side, employment in Calgary is actually at an all time high. There were 844.5 thousand employed persons in Calgary in February. That is 3,400 more than January. 10,400 more than December. 7,100 more than the high point in the summer. It also marks the 3rd consecutive month of employment growth.
The effect of both growing unemployment and employment pushed the participation rate back up to %74.4 and as it happens that's just ever so slightly above the average for the period from January 2010 to February 2018 at 74.14%. Why that period? Well that's all the data I retrieved. If we strictly look at a March 2013 to February 2018 5 year (60 month) rolling average, it's pretty much the same 73.83%. So at least over the the last several years roughly 74% has been pretty natural for Calgary.
Edmonton is actually an even more useful comparison that usual this month. Becuase their unemployment rate actually dropped from 7.2% in January to 6.9% in February. This is the first time they've posted an unemployment rate below 7% since march of 2016 which sounds good, but actually, they lost more employed people last month than we gained, 5,100. They also had 2,600 fewer unemployed people. The net effect is a participation rate of 71.4%. That's the lowest participation rate for them since early 2010. They came close for a few months around November of 2016 too, but this is one of the lowest points in the data I retrieved.
I think I'd rather take Calgary's situation where employment is growing and people are joining the Labour Force than Edmonton's where fewer people are working and fewer people want to work. Even if the popularly reported rate is better there than here.
EDIT: I'll also add, in case anyone is wondering, that the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers showed that full time employment grew while part time employment shrank for Calgary from January to February.
I'm also going to see if I can find any good data on wages.
Chart-y Goodness:
A little extra note on population. This is the working population (aged 15+). This is actually Calgary's fastest month of growth since May-June 2017. 0.15% compared to 0.16% back then. It's also the first month Calgary's rate of growth has actually been equal to Edmonton's since August 2017. Our growth rate has actually been predominantly slower since August 2016, even though our absolute growth has been equal or better for most of that time.
As you'd expect the primary cause was an increase in the number of unemployed. The 67.3 thousand unemployed persons in the Calgary CMA back in December was the lowest since January 2016. We're back up to 72.4 thousand. which is slightly better than where we were back in October (73.2K).
But on the flip side, employment in Calgary is actually at an all time high. There were 844.5 thousand employed persons in Calgary in February. That is 3,400 more than January. 10,400 more than December. 7,100 more than the high point in the summer. It also marks the 3rd consecutive month of employment growth.
The effect of both growing unemployment and employment pushed the participation rate back up to %74.4 and as it happens that's just ever so slightly above the average for the period from January 2010 to February 2018 at 74.14%. Why that period? Well that's all the data I retrieved. If we strictly look at a March 2013 to February 2018 5 year (60 month) rolling average, it's pretty much the same 73.83%. So at least over the the last several years roughly 74% has been pretty natural for Calgary.
Edmonton is actually an even more useful comparison that usual this month. Becuase their unemployment rate actually dropped from 7.2% in January to 6.9% in February. This is the first time they've posted an unemployment rate below 7% since march of 2016 which sounds good, but actually, they lost more employed people last month than we gained, 5,100. They also had 2,600 fewer unemployed people. The net effect is a participation rate of 71.4%. That's the lowest participation rate for them since early 2010. They came close for a few months around November of 2016 too, but this is one of the lowest points in the data I retrieved.
I think I'd rather take Calgary's situation where employment is growing and people are joining the Labour Force than Edmonton's where fewer people are working and fewer people want to work. Even if the popularly reported rate is better there than here.
EDIT: I'll also add, in case anyone is wondering, that the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers showed that full time employment grew while part time employment shrank for Calgary from January to February.
I'm also going to see if I can find any good data on wages.
Chart-y Goodness:
A little extra note on population. This is the working population (aged 15+). This is actually Calgary's fastest month of growth since May-June 2017. 0.15% compared to 0.16% back then. It's also the first month Calgary's rate of growth has actually been equal to Edmonton's since August 2017. Our growth rate has actually been predominantly slower since August 2016, even though our absolute growth has been equal or better for most of that time.
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When it comes to jobs, stats can always be broken down in many ways for sure. Thanks for posting these, it's always nice to see the whole picture and not just the unemployment % The CMA employment numbers are important, but you never hear that number mentioned in the media.