News   Apr 03, 2020
Pastel Morning
 4.7K     1 
News   Apr 02, 2020
A Message to Our Readers
 6.6K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
Soon to be Gone
 3.8K     0 

Calgary & Alberta Economy

There is still a slim hope that Keystone XL will survive. The thinking is that with the investment from the indigenous community combined with union contracts signed in the U.S, Biden might be convinced to allow construction to continue. There are still state courts that are impeding progress of course.
Canada needs energy exports more than ever now.
In reading about the Liberal governments' fiscal update yesterday, they don't appear to be too concerned about the escalating federal debt or drop off in revenues. They plan to spend even more but don't really have a plan to fund this spending other than borrow more. They keep pointing to low interest rates which is short term thinking, in my mind. What is even more concerning is the Liberal's reference to Canada's past economic performance being a strong bellwether going forward.
As some of us know from reading quarterly earnings reports, past performance is not necessarily a pre-cursor to future operating results; particularly as there is so much uncertainty of how this economy is going to survive at least another 6-9 months of restrictions.
 
Important to not equate export earnings (important for current accounts of course); and the funding of government spending in an economy without a fixed exchange rate. With an open economy, the terms of trade rebalance automatically so there is less immediate concern. TBH, once the economy stabilizes and returns closer to our productive capacity it is pretty easy to raise government revenue if the government needs more to even out the cycle.

In an economy with fixed exchange rates, of course export earnings is linked directly to the ability of the government to finance a deficit. Just not true for Canada.
 
Maybe I've been living under a rock a bit, but a quick question: Anyone know when the Staples location and Jysk location closed up in the Northeast? Also, was just informed that our "friendly" neighborhood ZYN wine shop closed in Inglewood.
 
I’m not sure when those particular store closed but I will say that the 17Ave strip is suffering heavy casualties. It seems every few days another business says permanently closed.
 
Beazley66 said:
Maybe I've been living under a rock a bit, but a quick question: Anyone know when the Staples location and Jysk location closed up in the Northeast? Also, was just informed that our "friendly" neighborhood ZYN wine shop closed in Inglewood.
Click to expand...
Wow .. since liquor stores were allowed to stay open throughout the pandemic, you would think Zyn would not be as impacted as other retailers. Perhaps they did a lot of business with bars & restaurants which for sure has dropped off. Either way, it points to less consumption by Calgarians.
The next big shoe to drop is hotels. I heard that up to 60% of hotels in Canada could close by January. In yesterday's fiscal update, the federal government has offered low interest (lower than published) rates to hotels as banks have been unwilling to lend to that industry. I don't know how much help that will be as hotels still have to pay it back, and they have no way of forecasting revenue with any kind of certainty.

I think as these retail & hospitality outlets quietly close one by one, we are going to be shocked at what the landscape looks like come spring.
 
Too bad about ZYN, it was a great place to find wines, and scotches, etc.. They had a lot of higher end stuff, and my guess is it was less related to covid, and more to the prolonged slumping economy. I know two different people who used to buy scotches from them and have recently been laid off (one being an early retirement). Makes me wonder how many of their other customers were in the same position?
 
From the Alberta Government tourism Statistics:
Hotel Occupancy
1606856199662.png
1606856417083.png

(last column there, which on some devices will probably not line up is 2019)

Food Service
1606856303840.png
 
Sky of Blue said:
I’m not sure when those particular store closed but I will say that the 17Ave strip is suffering heavy casualties. It seems every few days another business says permanently closed.
Click to expand...
it is, which isn't unexpected at the moment. But the reality of 17th ave is that it has always had a high turnover rate.

on the flip side from the closures, i've noticed the following new additions/changes:
- New pizza place going in the old Jugo juice location.
- Something new (assuming restaurant) going into the old Nandos location
- Edo going into the Poke burritos location
- Chemical Steves (bar) in the old Market location
- Freshii has re-opened in its old location
- Buon Giorno has re-opened in its old location

Also, there is some construction going on at the Royale patio area, i'm assuming something new is going in there.
 
I think 17th has fared fairly well considering Covid and the construction over the last few years. Sadly this was the one year off from construction, so I expect next summer to be another tough year and more places to close again.
 
www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Best news from fiscal update was that the energy sector was not mentioned: Gwyn Morgan

Gwyn Morgan, former CEO of Encana, talks about the fall fiscal update and the current state of the Canadian energy sector. He says that the best news from the update was that the Canadian energy sector was not mentioned and that additional complications did not arise.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

CEO of Encana seems to think the Liberals are starting to reverse their position on fossil fuels, and that they finally realize energy exports are needed more than ever. Maybe he is reading 'tea leaves' that I don't see.
I think not pointing to the energy industry as a solution to getting us out of debt, was a missed opportunity by the federal government. Right now Canadians are rightly worried about a lot of things .. jobs, income, health, personal debt. It would be relief to many that our kids and grand kids are not going to be forever saddled with a lifetime of government debt that is going to result in multiple tax increases over time. The strategy (if they had one) could be sold this way:
1. Increase our share of the global energy market, short to medium term. Use increased tax revenues to pay down debt
2. Continue to reduce carbon emissions to meet our commitments.
3. Slowly make the transition to renewable energy when and where it makes economic sense to do so. Remember Canadians, this will not be like turning one switch off and the other one on!
Surely that would resonate with the majority of Canadians ;)
 
JonnyCanuck said:
www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Best news from fiscal update was that the energy sector was not mentioned: Gwyn Morgan

Gwyn Morgan, former CEO of Encana, talks about the fall fiscal update and the current state of the Canadian energy sector. He says that the best news from the update was that the Canadian energy sector was not mentioned and that additional complications did not arise.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

CEO of Encana seems to think the Liberals are starting to reverse their position on fossil fuels, and that they finally realize energy exports are needed more than ever. Maybe he is reading 'tea leaves' that I don't see.
I think not pointing to the energy industry as a solution to getting us out of debt, was a missed opportunity by the federal government. Right now Canadians are rightly worried about a lot of things .. jobs, income, health, personal debt. It would be relief to many that our kids and grand kids are not going to be forever saddled with a lifetime of government debt that is going to result in multiple tax increases over time. The strategy (if they had one) could be sold this way:
1. Increase our share of the global energy market, short to medium term. Use increased tax revenues to pay down debt
2. Continue to reduce carbon emissions to meet our commitments.
3. Slowly make the transition to renewable energy when and where it makes economic sense to do so. Remember Canadians, this will not be like turning one switch off and the other one on!
Surely that would resonate with the majority of Canadians ;)
Click to expand...
Perhaps it is only Albertans (and other Alberta client provinces) that haven't realized that this was the Liberal policy since 2015, and since Trudeau's petroleum club speech during the leadership race even further back. They have been approving pipelines while simultaneously introducing carbon pricing afterall, and introduced a long term emissions path hardly more ambitious than the Harper era commitments in the short and medium term.
 
Mountain Man said:
I think 17th has fared fairly well considering Covid and the construction over the last few years. Sadly this was the one year off from construction, so I expect next summer to be another tough year and more places to close again.
Click to expand...
Banff was smart enough to push through their Bear Street rebuild/pedestrianzation project this year, so it'll be open and lovely next supper. Hindsight is 20/20, and the City had a lot of balls in the air so I'm not going to blame them, but it would have been good to have moved up the 17th Ave construction to this year.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top