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Calgary 2019 Civic Census

Predicted population change?

  • >20,000+

    Votes: 12 38.7%
  • +15,000-20,000

    Votes: 12 38.7%
  • +10,000-15,000

    Votes: 7 22.6%
  • +5,000-10,000

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • +0-5,000

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Negative population change

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    31

Social Justice

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Hey guys, looks like I'm late to the party. I'm liking the discussions so far.

I'll throw my two cents in. Most of what I'm gonna say has probably already been touched upon.

Summary:
Natural Growth: +8,807
Net Migration: +9,560
Housing stock: +5,866 units

Positive:

1. I'm still surprised that we have a positive net migration. Honesty question...What are these people doing for work? What is attracting them here?
2. It's good to see that the Beltine and the core communities are still growing. Albeit slowly...but slow and steady wins the race.
3. A growth rate of 1.45% is manageable.

Negative:

1. It's disappointing to see that the top fastest growing areas are all greenfield suburbs. Although, it's not surprising.
2. As previously mentioned it's not a good sign when young professionals leave the city for greener pastures.

Predictions and concerns:

1.Unless something drastic happens with the local economy, I think going forward we'll see a population growth rate of about 1% for the next 5-10 years.
2. I think there will be a housing oversupply in the upcoming years as many units come online. This will continue the trend of declining home/condo prices, thus throttling new home/condo starts.
3. I think the Beltline and inner city will continue to grow.
4. I think the crane count will dip below 10 cranes within the next 5 years.

Concerns:

1. I hope the satellite communities/cities/towns don't keep growing at the same rate as what we've seen before. Cheap home prices and lower taxes has attracted several buyers and young families to these areas.
2. I don't really see city hall resolving the financial issues. There are several retail CRU's and office towers that are vacant.
 

Silence&Motion

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1. I'm still surprised that we have a positive net migration. Honesty question...What are these people doing for work? What is attracting them here?
People are moving to large cities generally, as they have more opportunities even with a higher unemployment rate. That said, Calgary's unemployment rate of 6.9% is lower than the regional rate of 7.2%. It's also only slightly higher than Toronto's of 6.3% and Toronto is the fastest growing in Canada in absolute numbers. Most people don't move to take jobs. They move to places that appeal to them and then look for work when they get there.

Also, universities and hospitals tend to be major drivers of migration. This is why it would be CRAZY for the UCP to start making drastic cuts to education and health care. Those two fields are two of our more important economic lifelines. If tuition fees start going up, hospital wait times start increasing, or there are major public sector union strikes, people will start looking for opportunities to move elsewhere - especially younger people.

1. I hope the satellite communities/cities/towns don't keep growing at the same rate as what we've seen before. Cheap home prices and lower taxes has attracted several buyers and young families to these areas.
My understanding is that Calgary generally has lower residential tax rates than the surrounding towns (I could be wrong). In general larger "core" cities are able to keep residential taxes lower than their neighboring suburbs because the have more commercial tax revenue to fall back on.
 

Stephen Ave

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4. I think the crane count will dip below 10 cranes within the next 5 years.
It’s possible, but things would have to slow down significantly I think. Right now we don’t know what’s on the horizon, but as witnessed over the past 3 years construction starts keep happening. A couple of years ago some of us thought the count would dip below 20 by now, and instead it’s above 30. Of course the Cancer Centre and Bonnybrook plant account for 7 of those cranes. We still have a few more in the near future though. Place 10, probably two cranes, Annex, Dominion, 935-5th and August still to receive cranes.
 

Spring2008

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Just slightly under 45k for the City Centre - not bad. Beltline growth a bit disappointing at only approx 200 residents this yr, but understandable after 1,700 increase last yr. Underwood and probably The Royal wouldn't have been occupied either, so probably more of a timing issue this yr.

I think we'll continue seeing a 1-2k increase growth per year in the City Centre over the medium term, fueled mainly by the Beltline. The Beltline alone should easily reach 30k over the next 5 years based on past growth trends and the amount of new units u/c/yet to be delivered and in planning stages. Not the 2-3k growth per year experienced by Downtown Vancouver over the past couple decades, but not bad considering the slow growth environment.

We certainly look great compared to Edmonton. What's going on over there?

City Centre Edm 2014:
Downtown: 13,148
Oliver: 19,135
Total 32,283

City Centre Edm 2019:
Downtown: 12,423
Oliver: 18,180
Total: 30,603

It's hard to compare inner-city wards(Edm-Cgy) since Cgy split them up recently because they were getting too big (both inner-city wards were sitting at approx. 85k each before the split). Before the split i remember a few years where inner-city growth was about 30 to 40% of total citywide growth - very impressive. I think that slowed down over the past couple years but certainly not negative as what's happening in Edm. I guess that's what happens when everything seems to be hyper focused on the new arena. Lots of hype, little substance.

Edm inner-city wards 2014
Ward 6: 76,136
Ward 8: 68,857
Total: 144,993

Edm inner-city wards 2019
Ward 6: 72,819
Ward 8: 63,357
Total: 136,176

I think Cgy needs to focus on economic growth and aim to maintain what it was doing prior to the recession with an impressive 30-40% of new growth in inner-city communities. Maybe we can one day achieve 50% growth in established communities. I like Cgy's approach of focusing on infill in all forms in pretty much every inner-city communities. Over time we'll keep building momentum and create increasingly vibrant/attractive communities while creating more options for people to live in different areas of the inner-city. Most people don't want to live in a Downtown apartment unit, so focusing mostly on that aspect for inner-city densification is not going to work.

I'd also like for the city to ideally limit new subdivision approvals. Overall I think our growth trends are positive, but can be improved. However, our inner-city communities certainly feel a lot more dense and complete than 5-10 years ago.
 
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Surrealplaces

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The Royal, Underwood and SODO all finished up this year after the census.

The Beltline is set for some big-time growth, in the next few years. The next census will have those three towers and about 1,000 units added, and then comes even more after that, with Curtis block, 500 block, 11th and 11th, Cube, and One Tower, Redstone adding close to 2,000 units to the mix. Even if no new projects break ground, the Beltline should still top 30K.

Just slightly under 45k for the City Centre - not bad. Beltline growth a bit disappointing at only approx 200 residents this yr, but understandable after 1,700 increase last yr. Underwood and probably The Royal wouldn't have been occupied either, so probably more of a timing issue this yr.

I think we'll continue seeing a 1-2k increase growth per year in the City Centre over the medium term, fueled mainly by the Beltline. The Beltline alone should easily reach 30k over the next 5 years based on past growth trends and the amount of new units u/c/yet to be delivered and in planning stages. Not the 2-3k growth per year experienced by Downtown Vancouver over the past couple decades, but not bad considering the slow growth environment.

We certainly look great compared to Edmonton. What's going on over there?

City Centre Edm 2014:
Downtown: 13,148
Oliver: 19,135
Total 32,283

City Centre Edm 2019:
Downtown: 12,423
Oliver: 18,180
Total: 30,603

It's hard to compare inner-city wards(Edm-Cgy) since Cgy split them up recently because they were getting too big (both inner-city wards were sitting at approx. 85k each before the split). Before the split i remember a few years where inner-city growth was about 30 to 40% of total citywide growth - very impressive. I think that slowed down over the past couple years but certainly not negative as what's happening in Edm. I guess that's what happens when everything seems to be hyper focused on the new arena. Lots of hype, little substance.

Edm inner-city wards 2014
Ward 6: 76,136
Ward 8: 68,857
Total: 144,993

Edm inner-city wards 2019
Ward 6: 72,819
Ward 8: 63,357
Total: 136,176

I think Cgy needs to focus on economic growth and aim to maintain what it was doing prior to the recession with an impressive 30-40% of new growth in inner-city communities. Maybe we can one day achieve 50% growth in established communities. I like Cgy's approach of focusing on infill in all forms in pretty much every inner-city communities. Over time we'll keep building momentum and create increasingly vibrant/attractive communities while creating more options for people to live in different areas of the inner-city. Most people don't want to live in a Downtown apartment unit, so focusing mostly on that aspect for inner-city densification is not going to work.

I'd also like for the city to ideally limit new subdivision approvals. Overall I think our growth trends are positive, but can be improved. However, our inner-city communities certainly feel a lot more dense and complete than 5-10 years ago.
 
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UrbanWarrior

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^^^ Don't forget if we get the first phase of Place 10 going as well. It should be done by the 2021 census.


Also for next year, Waterfront Parkside and The Concord, I think only a few units had moved in by the time of the census. Eau Claire is gonna see substantial growth for 2020.
 

Surrealplaces

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^^^ Don't forget if we get the first phase of Place 10 going as well. It should be done by the 2021 census.


Also for next year, Waterfront Parkside and The Concord, I think only a few units had moved in by the time of the census. Eau Claire is gonna see substantial growth for 2020.
The West end is going to see The Hat 7th Ave added to next census and possibly the first West Village tower, if not next census, at least 2021.

East Village will see some extra heads from Verve and The Hat next census.
 

Spring2008

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The Royal, Underwood and SODO all finished up this year after the census.

The Beltline is set for some big-time growth, in the next few years. The next census will have those three towers and about 1,000 units added, and then comes even more after that, with Curtis block, 500 block, 11th and 11th, Cube, and One Tower, Redstone adding close to 2,000 units to the mix. Even if no new projects break ground, the Beltline should still top 30K.
Somebody's got to put together an updated u/c unit count list for the City Centre. Including those 3 towers that weren't yet added last census there's got to be about 3,500 units u/c in the Beltline alone not including the potential 800 units at Place 10 which appears to close to starting construction. Not to mention the new convention centre/arena/entertainment district should be a pretty big catalyst for population growth on the eastern side of the Beltline. Hopefully the economy picks up a bit. I could see Beltline population blowing right through 30k. Love the Beltline Mural project too!
 

Surrealplaces

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Here's my list from a previous post back in January. Park Point would have been added to this year's census, but the rest are coming in a future census. Park Point taken off the list but Arris 5th and third will be added to the list

50K looks bang on even in 3-4 years. With current u/c projects alone finishing up it would add roughly 6700 people to the city centre population of 43,492. All of the projects should be finished within 4 years.

-West Village Towers 300
-Telus Sky 326
-Concord 218
-Underwood 330
-Curtis Block 628
-INK 119
-Verve 288
-500 Block 463
-The Hat 221
-The Hat 7th ave 66
-11th and 11th 369
-The Royal 223
-Residence Inn 313
-Redstone 137
-Barron conversion 65
-Cube conversion 66
-Sierra Place conversion 100
-Parkside 303
-Park Point (occupied but residents haven't been added to census yet) 289

Total 4824 units x 1.4 persons/unit = 6753 people.
Somebody's got to put together an updated u/c unit count list for the City Centre. Including those 3 towers that weren't yet added last census there's got to be about 3,500 units u/c in the Beltline alone not including the potential 800 units at Place 10 which appears to close to starting construction. Not to mention the new convention centre/arena/entertainment district should be a pretty big catalyst for population growth on the eastern side of the Beltline. Hopefully the economy picks up a bit. I could see Beltline population blowing right past 30k. Love the Beltline Mural project too!
 
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Surrealplaces

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Projects u/c adding to City Centre pop (Beltline and Downtown CC, WE, EC, EV, CT) projects over the next few years. I don't know the number for Arris, so I rounded it off at 300.

-935 - 5Th Ave 74
-West Village Towers 300
-Telus Sky 326
-Concord 218
-Underwood 330
-Curtis Block 628
-INK 119
-Verve 288
-500 Block 463
-The Hat 221
-The Hat 7th ave 66
-11th and 11th 369
-The Royal 223
-Residence Inn 313
-Redstone 137
-Barron conversion 65
-Cube conversion 66
-Sierra Place conversion 100
-Parkside 303
-Arris 5th and Third 300

Total 4909 units x 1.4 persons/unit = ~6,872 people.
 

UrbanWarrior

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The city centre population is 44 991 as of this year, so that puts us at around 53 000 by 2023.
 

Social Justice

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People are moving to large cities generally, as they have more opportunities even with a higher unemployment rate. That said, Calgary's unemployment rate of 6.9% is lower than the regional rate of 7.2%. It's also only slightly higher than Toronto's of 6.3% and Toronto is the fastest growing in Canada in absolute numbers. Most people don't move to take jobs. They move to places that appeal to them and then look for work when they get there.
Oh, I didn't know Toronto had an unemployment rate of 6.3%. Personally, I find an unemployment rate of 6% kind of high. Maybe I'm just used to the good times this city once had. Keep in mind unemployment rate does not factor in people that have given up and stopped looking for work.


What would happen if we limited the influx of workers? Would the reduction of labour generate rising wages? Would the construction industry be hit hard? Does construction play a big role in Canada's economy? Can we have endless growth? Or should we emulate Japan where rural towns and villages are being abandoned? Do the elites need cheap labour? Do we have the same standard of living and quality of life as our parents and grandparents did?

Also, universities and hospitals tend to be major drivers of migration. This is why it would be CRAZY for the UCP to start making drastic cuts to education and health care. Those two fields are two of our more important economic lifelines. If tuition fees start going up, hospital wait times start increasing, or there are major public sector union strikes, people will start looking for opportunities to move elsewhere - especially younger people.
I agree with your statement. However; I think the purpose of a hospital should be to provide quality healthcare to as many citizens as possible. It's main purpose should not be an employment driver. IIRC there was a study done back in the early 2010's and it was found that Alberta had the least efficient healthcare system of all the provinces. We had one of the highest wait times and one of the highest costs on a per capita basis. I think at the time 40% of all AHS jobs were administrative. Many governments think that cutting costs will make the system more efficient. In reality, only front line jobs will be cut. The individuals making the cuts will rarely cut their colleagues/friends in the administrative class. You could say it's a form of rent-seeking.

On a personal note, I've worked on provincial government renovation jobs and the amount of wasted resources is appalling. It left me thunderstruck when I've gone to meetings with 13 provincial employees from 3 different departments and they spend hours arguing with each other.

My understanding is that Calgary generally has lower residential tax rates than the surrounding towns (I could be wrong). In general larger "core" cities are able to keep residential taxes lower than their neighboring suburbs because the have more commercial tax revenue to fall back on.
I could be wrong too. I remember hearing a presentation from Rollin Stanley back in 2010, where he said taxes are kept lower in Cheteremere to attract more buyers, however 30 years down the road they'll be in financial trouble as they don't have an industrial or commercial tax base. Keep in mind I could be totally wrong on this.

Anyways, apologies if I derailed this thread.
 
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zagox

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I could be wrong too. I remember hearing a presentation from Rollin Stanley back in 2010, where he said taxes are kept lower in Cheteremere to attract more buyers, however 30 years down the road they'll be in financial trouble as they don't have an industrial or commercial tax base. Keep in mind I could be totally wrong on this.
The only thing wrong about that conclusion was the timeframe, Chestermere is already desperate to attract more industrial/commercial.

 

Silence&Motion

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Oh, I didn't know Toronto had an unemployment rate of 6.3%. Personally, I find an unemployment rate of 6% kind of high. Maybe I'm just used to the good times this city once had. Keep in mind unemployment rate does not factor in people that have given up and stopped looking for work.
Unemployed people generally move to larger cities to look for work. For that reason alone, we'd expect large cities to always have higher unemployment rates than smaller towns (all else equal).

I agree with your statement. However; I think the purpose of a hospital should be to provide quality healthcare to as many citizens as possible. It's main purpose should not be an employment driver. IIRC there was a study done back in the early 2010's and it was found that Alberta had the least efficient healthcare system of all the provinces. We had one of the highest wait times and one of the highest costs on a per capita basis. I think at the time 40% of all AHS jobs were administrative. Many governments think that cutting costs will make the system more efficient. In reality, only front line jobs will be cut. The individuals making the cuts will rarely cut their colleagues/friends in the administrative class. You could say it's a form of rent-seeking.

On a personal note, I've worked on provincial government renovation jobs and the amount of wasted resources is appalling. It left me thunderstruck when I've gone to meetings with 13 provincial employees from 3 different departments and they spend hours arguing with each other.
I disagree that we shouldn't view healthcare (and education) as economic drivers. They are public services in Canada, but they are also major functions within our economy. I get the sense that a lot of conservatives/Albertans don't consider public sector work as being part of the "real" economy. However, people need healthcare and education just like they need consumer goods, houses, energy, etc. As more economic sectors become off-shored or automated, it makes sense that health care and education would be a growing part of our economy and our job market.

Hospitals and universities are important for the economy of cities in particular for two reasons. First, it is more efficient to serve people in a single location rather than spreading services out across an entire region, especially when it comes to specialized services. Second, hospitals and universities tend to generate spin-off industries that benefit from locating nearby (e.g. Waterloo's tech industry).

Is Alberta's healthcare system more inefficient than other provinces? Perhaps. It's hard to cut through all the political rhetoric. To some extent, it is unavoidable. Due to its rapid growth, Alberta has had to import most of its doctors and nurses from other provinces which requires offering competitive wages. Not only that, the public sector in general has needed to compete with O&G for university educated workers. Alberta remains a rich province, which means that wages across the board are higher.

In general, we should be looking to revert to the economic mean. However, this should be done gradually. Imposing strict austerity across the province at a time when BC, Ontario, and Quebec are all doing well risks causing a major exodus of educated workers to other provinces.

Anyways, apologies if I derailed this thread.
Hopefully this is not considered "derailed". Ultimately this discussion is about the factors that influence population growth and the demographic composition of Alberta/Calgary.
 

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