Alberta Provincial Politics

[Silence&Motion]

I agree people in Alberta don’t really go for centrist parties but they would vote in a right of centre party over and over. Sadly, we even managed to vote in a group of far right nut jobs.
I disagree about the NDP in 2015. They only won because of vote splitting on the right. They had 40% of the popular vote, less than what had this election. And raising corporate taxes didn’t help them win it helped them lose the next election.. They went down to 32% of the popular vote next election.

The left-populist anger that the NDP channelled helped them draw together 600,000+ voters, permanently vanquishing all the other progressive parties. I agree that the landscape was different in 2019 and 2023, and the same strategy wouldn't have worked. I still think opposition parties need to stand for something. Look at how the federal Liberals won power in 2015, by moving well to the left of the NDP, promising deficit spending, legal pot, and electoral reform. People felt excited to vote for Trudeau. No one gave a damn about Mulcair. And it was the Reform Party and the Wildrose Party that have buried the old federal and provincial PCs. Why? Because they have a passionate grassroots movement behind them, whereas the PCs stood for nothing in particular.

The PCs were pretty centrist for 44 years, and were replaced by the centrist NDP when the centrist party responded to a recession with auesterity. The UCP changed the bargain, assuming centrists were the issue, not the further right in building a winning coalition.

Smith took this further, redefining what being a conservative meant (normal populist stuff)and that winning with fewer seats if they could govern more conservatively was a good thing.

Centrism is a strategy that is more available to governing parties, not by generating a huge groundswell of support, but by keeping their opposition divided. The Alberta PC party very frequently won with less than 50% of the vote, and the Federal Liberals and Tories have only ever won with less than 50% (save 1984). Arguably governing parties cannot really campaign as anything other than centrists, since they are, by definition, the establishment.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

But brand names obviously have an impact.

This is all I'm saying about the NDP. It's not a where they stand problem, it's a brand problem.

I don't think most UCP know what they're voting for (platform, leader), they're simply voting for the Conservatives and that's good enough.

 

[darwink]

The left-populist anger that the NDP channelled helped them draw together 600,000+ voters, permanently vanquishing all the other progressive parties. I agree that the landscape was different in 2019 and 2023, and the same strategy wouldn't have worked. I still think opposition parties need to stand for something. Look at how the federal Liberals won power in 2015, by moving well to the left of the NDP, promising deficit spending, legal pot, and electoral reform. People felt excited to vote for Trudeau. No one gave a damn about Mulcair. And it was the Reform Party and the Wildrose Party that have buried the old federal and provincial PCs. Why? Because they have a passionate grassroots movement behind them, whereas the PCs stood for nothing in particular.



Centrism is a strategy that is more available to governing parties, not by generating a huge groundswell of support, but by keeping their opposition divided. The Alberta PC party very frequently won with less than 50% of the vote, and the Federal Liberals and Tories have only ever won with less than 50% (save 1984). Arguably governing parties cannot really campaign as anything other than centrists, since they are, by definition, the establishment.

You can offer reforms from a centrist perspective. In that election, I don't think the Liberals outflanked on the left at all. You don't have to be boring.

Unfortunately, the NDP impetus whn being centrist is to be boring, perhaps because their network of supporters don't naturally think up moderate middle of the road reforms, so they have trouble threading the needle.

The NDP provincially needed a few showpiece policies to offset the negative campaign and provide a bit of positive narrative. In that way they were similar to the Mulcair campaign.

Their boldest reform was the corporate tax change, one that they tried to make too cute, and that they didn't highlight.

They put a lot of work in as a caucus to generate ideas. Unfortunately, they didn't find a showpiece one.

I'll put the UCP in the same boat, their big tax cut didn't really catch fire.

 

[artvandelay]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661514285393268737

 

[Ned]

Perhaps rebranding with a name change and a new leader from Calgary could help the NDP. Not saying that is the solution but it is a thought. I wonder who would make a good leader with wide appeal. I am not from Calgary but realize that converting more Calgary seats and some Edmonton donut ridings would be key to victory.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Perhaps rebranding with a name change and a new leader from Calgary could help the NDP. Not saying that is the solution but it is a thought. I wonder who would make a good leader with wide appeal. I am not from Calgary but realize that converting more Calgary seats and some Edmonton donut ridings would be key to victory.

I've been wondering that myself. I don't know if it would make a difference or not, but at this point, why not try a strategy change I guess. The only other hope is that the UCP picks a more moderate leader but with Smith winning, it won't happen.

I've have been talking to various people who I know voted UCP. The common theme seems to be related to jobs, the O&G industry and the economy, and worrying the NDP would bring it down. Right or wrong that's the perception and maybe having a leader from Calgary with more ties into the business community could help... I don't know. As Calgary moves away from O&G I suspect the voter mentality for many will change.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I don’t really agree that NDP would fair better with a new leader, even a Calgarian. The name recognition Notley has, her charisma and general likeability, and her record all are what got the NDP to government and the two subsequent strongest oppositions in Alberta history. With a new leader, you risk a collapse in support. With Notley, we’re at least guaranteed a strong opposition

 

[Silence&Motion]

One of the big stories of this election was that turnout was down from 67.5% in 2019 to 62.4% (still one of the highest turnouts in living memory). However, there were 14 districts that actually saw increased turnout. As you might imagine, this appears to be caused by competitiveness. Almost all these districts are in Calgary and its exurbs, and some of the more competitive areas of Edmonton (like Kaycee Madu's district).

Conventional wisdom says that the NDP made gains because they consolidated Alberta Party and Liberal votes while the UCP suffered a slight decline in turnout. It also says that Danielle Smith is way more popular in rural areas than urban.

However, these numbers slightly complicate this conventional wisdom. First, you'll notice that UCP actually increased their vote count in many of these competitive urban/exurban districts. Even Madu gained votes!! These districts were really the only places where Smith did better than Kenney. Smith lost votes in almost all the rural districts. Second, the NDP gained way more votes in these ridings that can be explained by flipping voters from either third parties or from the UCP. So the NDP is finding new voters, at least in suburban Calgary and Edmonton.

District	Total Vote Change (2019 to 2023)	NDP Change	UCP Change	Other Parties
20 - Calgary-North East	3150​	5065​	702​	-2617​
23 - Calgary-Shaw	2909​	5014​	-291​	-1814​
24 - Calgary-South East	2775​	5393​	1197​	-3815​
43 - Edmonton-South West	2577​	4829​	488​	-2740​
50 - Banff-Kananaskis	2029​	2597​	429​	-997​
47 - Airdrie-Cochrane	1234​	3914​	-858​	-1822​
03 - Calgary-Bow	1156​	4007​	-1047​	-1804​
42 - Edmonton-South	1050​	3498​	-408​	-2040​
21 - Calgary-North West	662​	4166​	-1639​	-1865​
65 - Highwood	608​	3100​	-643​	-1849​
12 - Calgary-Foothills	549​	4084​	-1477​	-2058​
19 - Calgary-North	433​	3071​	-494​	-2144​
45 - Edmonton-West Henday	221​	2745​	-341​	-2183​
09 - Calgary-Elbow	87​	6392​	493​	-6798​

 

[darwink]

One of the big stories of this election was that turnout was down from 67.5% in 2019 to 62.4% (still one of the highest turnouts in living memory). However, there were 14 districts that actually saw increased turnout. As you might imagine, this appears to be caused by competitiveness. Almost all these districts are in Calgary and its exurbs, and some of the more competitive areas of Edmonton (like Kaycee Madu's district).

Conventional wisdom says that the NDP made gains because they consolidated Alberta Party and Liberal votes while the UCP suffered a slight decline in turnout. It also says that Danielle Smith is way more popular in rural areas than urban.

However, these numbers slightly complicate this conventional wisdom. First, you'll notice that UCP actually increased their vote count in many of these competitive urban/exurban districts. Even Madu gained votes!! These districts were really the only places where Smith did better than Kenney. Smith lost votes in almost all the rural districts. Second, the NDP gained way more votes in these ridings that can be explained by flipping voters from either third parties or from the UCP. So the NDP is finding new voters, at least in suburban Calgary and Edmonton.

District	Total Vote Change (2019 to 2023)	NDP Change	UCP Change	Other Parties
20 - Calgary-North East	3150​	5065​	702​	-2617​
23 - Calgary-Shaw	2909​	5014​	-291​	-1814​
24 - Calgary-South East	2775​	5393​	1197​	-3815​
43 - Edmonton-South West	2577​	4829​	488​	-2740​
50 - Banff-Kananaskis	2029​	2597​	429​	-997​
47 - Airdrie-Cochrane	1234​	3914​	-858​	-1822​
03 - Calgary-Bow	1156​	4007​	-1047​	-1804​
42 - Edmonton-South	1050​	3498​	-408​	-2040​
21 - Calgary-North West	662​	4166​	-1639​	-1865​
65 - Highwood	608​	3100​	-643​	-1849​
12 - Calgary-Foothills	549​	4084​	-1477​	-2058​
19 - Calgary-North	433​	3071​	-494​	-2144​
45 - Edmonton-West Henday	221​	2745​	-341​	-2183​
09 - Calgary-Elbow	87​	6392​	493​	-6798​

Great work. I'd also look at the population change, census to census, as somewhat indicative of population change election to election. The province has the demographic profile of each riding on its open data portal. I think for some, vote growth came from neighbourhoods being built out.