Alberta Provincial Politics

[Silence&Motion]

I wouldn't expect a huge difference in seats by the next election. Calgary+Edmonton (cities proper) were 54.37% of Alberta's population in 2021. That's up from 52.37% in 2011. So, maybe 57% by the end of the decade? That would justify an additional 3-4 seats across the two cities, but more likely it would be 1-2 seats and not necessarily before the next election. My understanding is that there is some language written into the law that allows certain (rural) districts to remain in place despite smaller, declining populations. I can only imagine that a UCP government, increasingly losing urban and suburban voters, will do whatever it can to delay the redistribution of seats.

 

[adamyyc]

At least the provincial ridings are currently fairly balanced. There are a couple small population ridings that are outliers, but it’s not nearly as egregious as the size gap as some of the federal ridings.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

With the UCP MLAs that were elected, wonder how they feel about Danielle? I'm sure the losing candidates feel like she is a reason why they lost.

Also curious about where the NDP goes from here... I think they need a new leader and some new voices. Could they actually change their leader to a Calgary MLA, or would that alienate their Edmonton base?

If the Alberta party could ever get organized as an alternative maybe we could have three legitimate parties to jockey for government. I believe if they were the alternative to whatever the conservative party of the day is called people would be much more comfortable with them than the NDP simply because they're called the NDP.

 

[Duck Lightning]

Notley has already announced that she's staying on as the leader. I do agree that the NDP would be better off without her though going into the next election though. Having Notley as your leader is both a blessing and a curse for the NDP because she has won against the Conservatives before and has experience as premier but at the same time Conservative voters don't trust her to lead the economy.

I also would like to see a new alternative centre right Conservative party in this province. Polls have shown that the majority of voters in Calgary identify as centre right so a new party does potentially have a starting point there. Especially if the NDP doesn't look quite as appealing next election.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Notley has already announced that she's staying on as the leader.

I'm sure she'd like to but she has become the party for better or worse the party needs to move on.

a new alternative centre right Conservative party

Personally, this is not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a centre party.

 

[darwink]

If the Alberta party could ever get organized as an alternative maybe we could have three legitimate parties to jockey for government.

They're over. It was a decade and a half long attempt and its over. Best case is keep it alive so if a new movement is emerging they can take it over 3 years from now. They had a chance in 2014/2015 but right before shot themselves in the foot by banning floor crossing. In 2019 they even had somewhat of a shot, they needed to win 4 seats and failed.

Political parties are hard work, and thankless. They're social networks and clubs which also do politics. At this point, both the Alberta Party and the Alberta Liberals' social networks have declined to the point of being detrimental to their political objectives. Time to fold the organization that takes too much work to keep barely functioning, and shift to network building - friends that talk about politics and hang out. It is much easier to build a network outside a party than inside -- just look at the right with Take Back Alberta and the Alberta Prosperity Project.

 

[Duck Lightning]

Personally, this is not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a centre party.

I just want to move away from the far right and centre right is far more palatable to conservative voters who are still the majority in this province

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Wait until we move away from the King as our head of state and then get rid of the Westminster political system and move towards a republic. Then we'll elect a legislature/congress and a premier/president.

 

[darwink]

Wait until we move away from the King as our head of state and then get rid of the Westminster political system and move towards a republic. Then we'll elect a legislature/congress and a premier/president.

Becoming a republic doesn't necessarily mean getting rid of the legislative-executive fusion of responsible government. Look at Germany, Israel.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Personally, this is not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a centre party.

People keep saying this, but no one votes for centrist parties, because they don't stand for anything. They just try to triangulate the positions of the other parties that do stand for things. We'll never know for sure, but there's definitely a school of thought that says the NDP lost because it focused on being as inoffensive as possible and put the focus completely on the UCP. They won in 2015 by taking bold stances like raising the corporate tax rate.

If the Alberta party could ever get organized as an alternative maybe we could have three legitimate parties to jockey for government. I believe if they were the alternative to whatever the conservative party of the day is called people would be much more comfortable with them than the NDP simply because they're called the NDP.

The Alberta Party couldn't even win more votes than the Green Party!! Stop trying to make the Alberta Party happen...

 

[Surrealplaces]

With the UCP MLAs that were elected, wonder how they feel about Danielle? I'm sure the losing candidates feel like she is a reason why they lost.

I know this is the case for at least a couple of Calgary MLAs. They had concerns about Smith before the election, and probably knew they would be losing because of her.

Also curious about where the NDP goes from here... I think they need a new leader and some new voices. Could they actually change their leader to a Calgary MLA, or would that alienate their Edmonton base?

I think the NDP would have a better shot with a leader with roots in Calgary, depending on the leader of course, they could gain more Calgary seats than ones they'd lose in Edmonton. Even a situation where they gained a Calgary vote for every Edmonton they lost, they would still gain from it, as the NDP had big leads in many of the Edmonton ridings.

With all of Smith's screw ups, this was probably the best chance the NDP had to get in with Notley as leader....unless Smith screws up even more. What worries me is she could screw up to the 10th degree and the same people who voted for her this election would vote for her again.

 

[ByeByeBaby]

Personally, this is not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a centre party.

Alberta has a major centre party; has for a decade now.

From the CBC's vote compass; the dots are the party's policies and the hexagons are where the supporters of that party are. The NDP ran on a set of policies (Pro oil! Pro police!) that are about as close to the centre of public opinion as possible. The Alberta Party is the one that ran far to the left, along with the Liberals and Greens, and all three parties did about as well as spoiled ballot, because progressives were willing to hold their nose to try and avoid disaster.

But brand names obviously have an impact.

 

[Chinook Arch]

People keep saying this, but no one votes for centrist parties, because they don't stand for anything. They just try to triangulate the positions of the other parties that do stand for things. We'll never know for sure, but there's definitely a school of thought that says the NDP lost because it focused on being as inoffensive as possible and put the focus completely on the UCP. They won in 2015 by taking bold stances like raising the corporate tax rate.

I agree people in Alberta don’t really go for centrist parties but they would vote in a right of centre party over and over. Sadly, we even managed to vote in a group of far right nut jobs.
I disagree about the NDP in 2015. They only won because of vote splitting on the right. They had 40% of the popular vote, less than what had this election. And raising corporate taxes didn’t help them win it helped them lose the next election.. They went down to 32% of the popular vote next election.

 

[darwink]

I agree people in Alberta don’t really go for centrist parties but they would vote in a right of centre party over and over. Sadly, we even managed to vote in a group of far right nut jobs.
I disagree about the NDP in 2015. They only won because of vote splitting on the right. They had 40% of the popular vote, less than what had this election. And raising corporate taxes didn’t help them win it helped them lose the next election.. They went down to 32% of the popular vote next election.

The PCs were pretty centrist for 44 years, and were replaced by the centrist NDP when the centrist party responded to a recession with auesterity. The UCP changed the bargain, assuming centrists were the issue, not the further right in building a winning coalition.

Smith took this further, redefining what being a conservative meant (normal populist stuff)and that winning with fewer seats if they could govern more conservatively was a good thing.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I agree people in Alberta don’t really go for centrist parties but they would vote in a right of centre party over and over. Sadly, we even managed to vote in a group of far right nut jobs.
I disagree about the NDP in 2015. They only won because of vote splitting on the right. They had 40% of the popular vote, less than what had this election. And raising corporate taxes didn’t help them win it helped them lose the next election.. They went down to 32% of the popular vote next election.

The left-populist anger that the NDP channelled helped them draw together 600,000+ voters, permanently vanquishing all the other progressive parties. I agree that the landscape was different in 2019 and 2023, and the same strategy wouldn't have worked. I still think opposition parties need to stand for something. Look at how the federal Liberals won power in 2015, by moving well to the left of the NDP, promising deficit spending, legal pot, and electoral reform. People felt excited to vote for Trudeau. No one gave a damn about Mulcair. And it was the Reform Party and the Wildrose Party that have buried the old federal and provincial PCs. Why? Because they have a passionate grassroots movement behind them, whereas the PCs stood for nothing in particular.

The PCs were pretty centrist for 44 years, and were replaced by the centrist NDP when the centrist party responded to a recession with auesterity. The UCP changed the bargain, assuming centrists were the issue, not the further right in building a winning coalition.

Smith took this further, redefining what being a conservative meant (normal populist stuff)and that winning with fewer seats if they could govern more conservatively was a good thing.

Centrism is a strategy that is more available to governing parties, not by generating a huge groundswell of support, but by keeping their opposition divided. The Alberta PC party very frequently won with less than 50% of the vote, and the Federal Liberals and Tories have only ever won with less than 50% (save 1984). Arguably governing parties cannot really campaign as anything other than centrists, since they are, by definition, the establishment.