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Calgary International Airport

YYC for January, up 2.3% over last January.

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Transborder down, but international and domestic up. International only slightly below transborder now.

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That transborder decline is getting harder to hide. Explains the huge boost to the domestic routes planned with reducing capacity to the US.
 
I just booked a $46 flight between Medicine Hat and Calgary, and now I hear they're cancelling flights to the Hat and Lethbridge a few weeks after my spontaneous trip. Ultimately: Westjet has terrible timing of their flights to these cities...if your destination is Lethbridge or the Hat, your flight leaves Calgary at 3pm and 2pm respectively...too early for most connections that aren't major Canadian cities with multiple daily frequencies. An alternative that would be really nice is if Westjet teamed up with Flixbus to provide a one ticket booking with a bus transfer in Calgary to cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, and Medicine Hat. Retains the benefits of connectivity into the network without the cost drawback. Would pair really well with the rail line to Banff and high speed rail to Edmonton when they both eventually come on line.

My count YYC gains over 100 weekly flights


I saw news of the cuts earlier. Disappointing, but not too surprising if the times were lousy. I think there's likely a chicken/egg thing at play, but sounds like YYC and WS are too busy to worry about route development like this, and likely don't have many landing slots to spare at peak times.

That said, I think these are important links if the province is serious about encouraging business and population growth in the smaller cities.

Ultimately the regional rail initiative should take care of this, but I think a better stopgap service than coach buses is needed. While they can be a reasonably comfortable journey, they are still bound to road limits with weather and traffic, making the trip a not very compelling 3 hours, minimum.

As a better stop gap, I wonder if the market would support a helicopter based airline if the ticket prices and frequencies were reasonable?

By my web search estimates, it would cost around 10-15 million a year to run a pair of chinooks (~30pax) between Calgary and a smaller city within 300km three times a day. That seems like a reasonable subsidy for the province to cover until regional rail can take over.

There's potential to open up a number of new locations in BC that weren't easily air accessible too, golden, revelstoke, invermere, where tourist demand may not even require a subsidy.

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Using a 300km range for the map as that's roughly the hourly speed and non refuel range for the Chinook, allowing for low/no cost destination facilities. They also have good reuse / resale value once they are functionally replaced by rail service.

As it seems like runway pressure is part of what is making direct flight hard to justify, a Calgary heliport likely couldn't be located at YYC directly, but I think the platform parkade downtown might be a good candidate? Expand it upwards with a flat deck and has nearly a direct link to the planned transport hub.

Ok, now who wants to fund my kickstarter!? 😂
 
I saw news of the cuts earlier. Disappointing, but not too surprising if the times were lousy. I think there's likely a chicken/egg thing at play, but sounds like YYC and WS are too busy to worry about route development like this, and likely don't have many landing slots to spare at peak times.

That said, I think these are important links if the province is serious about encouraging business and population growth in the smaller cities.

Ultimately the regional rail initiative should take care of this, but I think a better stopgap service than coach buses is needed. While they can be a reasonably comfortable journey, they are still bound to road limits with weather and traffic, making the trip a not very compelling 3 hours, minimum.

As a better stop gap, I wonder if the market would support a helicopter based airline if the ticket prices and frequencies were reasonable?

By my web search estimates, it would cost around 10-15 million a year to run a pair of chinooks (~30pax) between Calgary and a smaller city within 300km three times a day. That seems like a reasonable subsidy for the province to cover until regional rail can take over.

There's potential to open up a number of new locations in BC that weren't easily air accessible too, golden, revelstoke, invermere, where tourist demand may not even require a subsidy.

View attachment 717360

Using a 300km range for the map as that's roughly the hourly speed and non refuel range for the Chinook, allowing for low/no cost destination facilities. They also have good reuse / resale value once they are functionally replaced by rail service.

As it seems like runway pressure is part of what is making direct flight hard to justify, a Calgary heliport likely couldn't be located at YYC directly, but I think the platform parkade downtown might be a good candidate? Expand it upwards with a flat deck and has nearly a direct link to the planned transport hub.

Ok, now who wants to fund my kickstarter!? 😂
I don't think slots really matter here. They're the smaller dash-8 and even if they don't fly to to those destinations, they are still going to deploy them on other routes, keeping the same utilization at YYC.

A bus connection definitely makes sense. Air Canada does this to Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo and Kingston from YYZ. The Kingston route is about the same as the Medicine Hat route. Rail would be nice but it's a minimum decade out. And helicopter... cool idea but it'd be much cheaper to just subsidize dash-8 service that currently exists.
 
I don't think slots really matter here. They're the smaller dash-8 and even if they don't fly to to those destinations, they are still going to deploy them on other routes, keeping the same utilization at YYC.

A bus connection definitely makes sense. Air Canada does this to Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo and Kingston from YYZ. The Kingston route is about the same as the Medicine Hat route. Rail would be nice but it's a minimum decade out. And helicopter... cool idea but it'd be much cheaper to just subsidize dash-8 service that currently exists.

Given infinite airframes and infinite runways upgrading both cities to 3x daily dash 8 service would be great.

But it seems the flight isn't overly appealing due to timing, and because the flight doesn't generate a lot of demand it can't justify a good timing. Circle of route failure.

I see passenger stats posted here regularly, but what isn't clear to me is where YYC is at vs it's passenger potential.

What is the maximum number of aircraft YYC can accommodate per day/hour, and what are the current usage numbers?

If they could be slotted in, I agree that subsidizing further WS flight is the simplest win. But if they can't, I still think the cities deserve some sort of one hour transportation link while equivalent rail service is established.

Kingston is a great example of why that's desirable. How much business activity do they have vs Hamilton or KW which are in that sweet spot of an hour away from the regional major? Don't know the region extremely well, but seems like most of what Kingston is known for these days is government related. Just a different way of doing the subsidy I guess.
 
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Given infinite airframes and infinite runways upgrading both cities to 3x daily dash 8 service would be great.

But it seems the flight isn't overly appealing due to timing, and because the flight doesn't generate a lot of demand it can't justify a good timing. Circle of route failure.

I see passenger stats posted here regularly, but what isn't clear to me is where YYC is at vs it's passenger potential.

What is the maximum number of aircraft YYC can accommodate per day/hour, and what are the current usage numbers?

If they could be slotted in, I agree that subsidizing further WS flight is the simplest win. But if they can't, I still think the cities deserve some sort of one hour transportation link while equivalent rail service is established.

Kingston is a great example of why that's desirable. How much business activity do they have vs Hamilton or KW which are in that sweet spot of an hour away from the regional major? Don't know the region extremely well, but seems like most of what Kingston is known for these days is government related. Just a different way of doing the subsidy I guess.
We are not close to our maximum capacity. We've closed Terminal B for well over a year and there's been zero capacity restrictions, on the contrary, we've grown quite a bit. Now that International/Domestic are connected, they can use the E gates if A/C is full. The schedules for the service was bad not because of gate demand, but plane demand. WJ can deploy the Dash-8 on more profitable routes during the "better" times.

The AC YYZ-Kingston routes are not subsidized, the busses are contracted by Air Canada, and they'll sell the bus connection the same as a plane ticket. France/SNCF does something similar with rail. Westjet can absolutely contract a bus fleet that connects passengers to those destinations and timed with their flight arrivals.
 
We are not close to our maximum capacity. We've closed Terminal B for well over a year and there's been zero capacity restrictions, on the contrary, we've grown quite a bit. Now that International/Domestic are connected, they can use the E gates if A/C is full. The schedules for the service was bad not because of gate demand, but plane demand. WJ can deploy the Dash-8 on more profitable routes during the "better" times.

The AC YYZ-Kingston routes are not subsidized, the busses are contracted by Air Canada, and they'll sell the bus connection the same as a plane ticket. France/SNCF does something similar with rail. Westjet can absolutely contract a bus fleet that connects passengers to those destinations and timed with their flight arrivals.

Never suggested bus connections can't be used, but a variable 3ish hour trip is less desirable than a reliable trip of less than one hour.

If airframes are the ultimate constraint, so be it. Partly why I suggested helicopter service to DT in the first place. Avoids both potential bottlenecks at YYC.
 
and pilots. the proliferation of airlines has hollowed out the regional carriers. Porter, Flair -- they draw from the same pool of talent.

Yeah, short on everything.. While there are a decent amount of pilots around with Chinook experience, there likely aren't many looking for work. Nor are there all that many airframes available.

China to the rescue again?

It's a bit small at 12 pax, but could be pretty cheap to operate. Maybe a mid size model is in the works?

 
As a better stop gap, I wonder if the market would support a helicopter based airline if the ticket prices and frequencies were reasonable?
Westjet doesn't have a shortage of Q400 dash 8 aircraft (particularly since ending Encore operations in Ontario and the Maritimes), so metal isn't the issue. They run flights from these smaller cities in the morning and return in the early afternoon to sit the rest of the day and overnight if I'm not mistaken. YYC doesn't have a capacity issue either. We still broke passenger records last year while we were down a runway and had to accommodate VIP movements like Air Force 1 and all of the other charter flights from the G7 nations. Heathrow's parallel runways move something like 80-90 aircraft per hour at peak meanwhile a quick look reveals we have just shy of 200 scheduled departures for the entirety of tomorrow during this slower season (presumed 400 movements from that plus some cargo and private). With our staggered runways enabling less separation than at least YVR, I'd be surprised if capacity is ever an issue for us.

That said, I do really like the idea of better connections to particularly Golden, Revelstoke, and Invermere. I know Revelstoke wants to establish regular passenger service, and I'm still holding out hope for Castlegar. But with them pulling out of 2 of Alberta's larger cities in a few months, plus already pulling out of Lloydminster, I don't have much hope.
 
I wonder if 2 - 3 hours might be close enough where most people won't see a need to fly, especially when you consider the cost. The flight is short but when you factor in time to check in, go through security, grab baggage on the other side etc you're not really saving any time vs driving.
 
I wonder if 2 - 3 hours might be close enough where most people won't see a need to fly, especially when you consider the cost. The flight is short but when you factor in time to check in, go through security, grab baggage on the other side etc you're not really saving any time vs driving.
These towns are really quite small. Is there really much demand? Lethbridge is the largest by far, but it's still just over 100,000 people and it's also closest to Calgary at about 2 hours driving time. Strikes me as a tough market for flights to have limited demand and a reasonably short drive given airport + flying time may equal 2 hours anyways.

Might be some niche markets when the driving time gets a bit further and the tourist angle is stronger (e.g. Revelstoke or some regional airport in BC mountains).
 
You have to think about if differently for Lethbridge. I'd say most aren't flying to get to Calgary, they're flying to get to YYC, which you then go on to somewhere else. Guaranteed that parking is easier and cheaper at the Lethbridge Airport than YYC. The BC Interior can be thought of similarly, beyond tourists, they don't really care to get to Calgary, they probably go on to somewhere else. They can go to Vancouver, but maybe some would prefer Calgary, especially if you're connecting with WestJet.

The market obviously isn't huge but yeah.
 
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I wonder if 2 - 3 hours might be close enough where most people won't see a need to fly, especially when you consider the cost. The flight is short but when you factor in time to check in, go through security, grab baggage on the other side etc you're not really saving any time vs driving.
It depends.

Air Canada's flight to Red Deer were rumoured to be anchored by 3 Super Elite flyers plus the members of Parliament. The flight kept them loyal, and otherwise was a wash. A net benefit. Those were Beech 1900-Ds though, 17 passengers.

Q400s are just too big for lots of flights. Air Canada has ordered 30 30 seat ES-30s (below) and if they're delivered, they'll be able to boost frequency on lots of routes where frequency can induce demand (I fly often these days between Vancouver and Kamloops-before going all Q400 Kamloops had double the frequency and locals bemoan it).
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