Imperia | 95.3m | 27s | Truman | NORR

[trtcttc]

I'm still waiting for the 800sqft 2 bedroom Beltline condo I bought around 12 years ago for $290K to get anywhere close to breaking even. Last time I checked, comparables in the building were still going for around $240-250K.

Condos also age pretty poorly especially if the management fees goes up too much. People paying $1M for condos in GTA/GVA not sure what's going to happen when that's paired with a $1000+ a month maintenance fee.

 

[DiscoStu]

Yeah, even though I initially bought it as a place to live not to rent out, it's been a pretty terrible "investment". And that was just the nominal difference in value...you'd think after a decade of inflation and a crappy CAD, I'd at least be closer to breaking even on paper. When you consider all the costs and headaches, unless you're in a bubble like TO or Van, condos are kind of terrible. I'll probably wait till our current renter is out and then dump it (probably just before values skyrocket).

Listen to the farmers and buy land instead.

 

[maestro]

These out of town investors are coming with a view that was an insane price in 2015 pre-con in Toronto, and look how much profit it made. Little do they know we are significantly better at building homes that prices won't appreciate at those levels likely ever.

If they can fix pricing in Southern Ontario or Greater Vancouver for 20 years than Calgary doesn't present any problems either. It's similar to a Ponzi scheme. It's just a matter of enough outside investors continually paying too much to take over control of the market. Local brokers are just waiting to see these overpriced studios sell before joining in.

I don't think they will sell today for $1100 a square foot. It's possible as long as real investment remains Canada's biggest commodity that they will sell for $1500 a square foot in as little as 5 years.

 

[maestro]

Yeah, even though I initially bought it as a place to live not to rent out, it's been a pretty terrible "investment". And that was just the nominal difference in value...you'd think after a decade of inflation and a crappy CAD, I'd at least be closer to breaking even on paper. When you consider all the costs and headaches, unless you're in a bubble like TO or Van, condos are kind of terrible. I'll probably wait till our current renter is out and then dump it (probably just before values skyrocket).

Listen to the farmers and buy land instead.

It's all timing. Land isn't that much better or as entry level affordable.

 

[trtcttc]

If they can fix pricing in Southern Ontario or Greater Vancouver for 20 years than Calgary doesn't present any problems either. It's similar to a Ponzi scheme. It's just a matter of enough outside investors continually paying too much to take over control of the market. Local brokers are just waiting to see these overpriced studios sell before joining in.

I don't think they will sell today for $1100 a square foot. It's possible as long as real investment remains Canada's biggest commodity that they will sell for $1500 a square foot in as little as 5 years.

I think there is this impression that Toronto/Vancouver are just overpriced and these condos were all empty investments. That just wasn't true. Values rose because population growth was so high while housing growth was low. And you can't really find a substitute for housing, like you could for most other commodities. And as population growth is falling and supply is catching up, values are cratering. Our housing starts relatively to population are higher than Toronto/Vancouver and without as severe of a demand/supply mismatch, prices will never rise like they do there.

 

[DiscoStu]

It's all timing. Land isn't that much better or as entry level affordable.

I'm not saying land is a guaranteed money maker (and it probably shouldn't be much more than a money keeper), but to me there's more baseline value there long term. The property that sits on it may fluctuate (in condition, size, value etc), but even if it burns down you have something of value to work with. With condos, you're more tied to the property itself (ie general condition, level of finishings, types of amenities etc), which tend to degrade over time and have to be renovated/replaced. That and more condos can always be added to the market as a city densifies...you can't always add more good land.

My biggest beef though is that so much of condo life comes down to being at the mercy of decisions made by other people. With owning land, you have more control and flexibility with what you can do with it. Obviously there are still neighbours and laws to comply with, but you're still mostly in control. For me, the older I get, the more I value that agency/independence.

 

[gsunnyg]

I think there is this impression that Toronto/Vancouver are just overpriced and these condos were all empty investments. That just wasn't true. Values rose because population growth was so high while housing growth was low. And you can't really find a substitute for housing, like you could for most other commodities. And as population growth is falling and supply is catching up, values are cratering. Our housing starts relatively to population are higher than Toronto/Vancouver and without as severe of a demand/supply mismatch, prices will never rise like they do there.

Shoe boxes selling for $1mil in the NE is a sign that certain segments of our housing market are beginning to reach Van/Toronto Pre-Pandemic levels. Here's hoping for a $100-200k correction in our market's detached and semi-detached segments if supply does considerably catch up with our population growth. Mostly wishful thinking but I do think our detached market is overvalued considering our lot/home sizes compared to Metro Van and GTA.

 

[trtcttc]

I'm not saying land is a guaranteed money maker (and it probably shouldn't be much more than a money keeper), but to me there's more baseline value there long term. The property that sits on it may fluctuate (in condition, size, value etc), but even if it burns down you have something of value to work with. With condos, you're more tied to the property itself (ie general condition, level of finishings, types of amenities etc), which tend to degrade over time and have to be renovated/replaced. That and more condos can always be added to the market as a city densifies...you can't always add more good land.

My biggest beef though is that so much of condo life comes down to being at the mercy of decisions made by other people. With owning land, you have more control and flexibility with what you can do with it. Obviously there are still neighbours and laws to comply with, but you're still mostly in control. For me, the older I get, the more I value that agency/independence.

The building is always a depreciating asset. I grew up in Vancouver and people had the exact same sentiment towards condos back then and it was priced like it is here, significant discount to detached homes. Condos only started appreciating in value once that was the only thing anyone can afford. For Calgary, which isn't land limited, I can't see condos being good investments.

Shoe boxes selling for $1mil in the NE is a sign that certain segments of our housing market are beginning to reach Van/Toronto Pre-Pandemic levels. Here's hoping for a $100-200k correction in our market's detached and semi-detached segments if supply does considerably catch up with our population growth. Mostly wishful thinking but I do think our detached market is overvalued considering our lot/home sizes compared to Metro Van and GTA.

Where is that happening in the NE? Only places I've seen >1M condos are the retirement/estate styles by an artificial lake. I'd say our detached market is a pretty steep discount relative to those places. You aren't getting a livable detached house anywhere on Vancouver proper or Toronto south of the 401. You can find homes in Bridgeland for 800k, In Summerhill or Kits, there's nothing less than $3M.

 

[KrisYYC]

My primary residence condo I'd barely break even if I sold today. If I sold it two years ago I would have lost a significant amount. My rental property condo I bought in 2018 for $240K would sell for around $350k today. So there has been some recovery in condo prices. I think the higher interest rates and high price of detached is driving more people to condos right now. A lot of people don't want to rent but can't qualify or don't see value in going into $700k of debt for a zero lot line tinderbox.

And is it me or are most multi-family projects going up now purpose built rentals? I wonder if the rental market gets flooded with supply some will convert to condo, especially if condo prices take off while rents remain stagnant or even drop.

 

[DiscoStu]

My primary residence condo I'd barely break even if I sold today. If I sold it two years ago I would have lost a significant amount. My rental property condo I bought in 2018 for $240K would sell for around $350k today. So there has been some recovery in condo prices.

I just took a look, and there has definitely been a nice bump since the last time I looked at comparables (probably 6-8 months ago). Not even yet, but I'll take what I can get!

 

[gsunnyg]

The building is always a depreciating asset. I grew up in Vancouver and people had the exact same sentiment towards condos back then and it was priced like it is here, significant discount to detached homes. Condos only started appreciating in value once that was the only thing anyone can afford. For Calgary, which isn't land limited, I can't see condos being good investments.

Where is that happening in the NE? Only places I've seen >1M condos are the retirement/estate styles by an artificial lake. I'd say our detached market is a pretty steep discount relative to those places. You aren't getting a livable detached house anywhere on Vancouver proper or Toronto south of the 401. You can find homes in Bridgeland for 800k, In Summerhill or Kits, there's nothing less than $3M.

I was specifically talking abt detached homes in the NE. Pockets of Saddleridge, Cityscape etc. have homes at approx 1 mil or more. These prices are very reminiscent of starter detached homes in Cities like Surrey, Coquitlam, and Mississauga in 2017 ish. We've become unaffordable and some of the prices just don't make sense to me. The lots in these suburban areas are so small compared to a residential lot in Surrey or Burnaby.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I'm still waiting for the 800sqft 2 bedroom Beltline condo I bought around 12 years ago for $290K to get anywhere close to breaking even. Last time I checked, comparables in the building were still going for around $240-250K.

Whaaat? Now that sounds like a bargain actually. Wish I wasn't like one nostril above water right now

 

[badc0ffee]

was specifically talking abt detached homes in the NE. Pockets of Saddleridge, Cityscape etc. have homes at approx 1 mil or more.

There's 1 house for sale in Cityscape for $1 million +. It's 2788 sq ft, has 5+1 beds, and backs onto a pond where you can watch migrating waterfowl.

It does have a pretty small lot, the same area as the "wide" 33x120 infill sized lots in Inglewood or Altadore.

Most of Cityscape is like $600-$700k for a detached house. That's still higher than I would have expected.

For $900k it looks like you can get a renovated 4-bed in Canyon Meadows, on a 68x156 ft lot, a 15-minute walk to Fish Creek Park. I know which one I'd choose.

 

[KrisYYC]

Redstone, Cityscape, Skyview Ranch are overpriced. Probably over 90% of the people in those areas are newcomers to Canada who don't know any better and the realtors take advantage of that. Large amounts of mortgage fraud to get the loans approved too.

 

[Albertasaurus]

My primary residence condo I'd barely break even if I sold today. If I sold it two years ago I would have lost a significant amount. My rental property condo I bought in 2018 for $240K would sell for around $350k today. So there has been some recovery in condo prices. I think the higher interest rates and high price of detached is driving more people to condos right now. A lot of people don't want to rent but can't qualify or don't see value in going into $700k of debt for a zero lot line tinderbox.

And is it me or are most multi-family projects going up now purpose built rentals? I wonder if the rental market gets flooded with supply some will convert to condo, especially if condo prices take off while rents remain stagnant or even drop.

I've heard anecdotally that the condo market has only just caught up to the previous peak value of 2007.