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Statscan numbers

Mountain Man said:
How long before the city of Calgary passes Montreal to be the second biggest municipality in the country? Have to be within a couple hundred thousand...
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Montreal was at 1.76 million in 2021, so nearly 300,000 ahead of us? I think we should pass them by 2030 at latest if current trends continue and we don't have another economic disaster like 2015-2021. Unfortunately they don't do an annual census like we do so we have to rely on the statscan census for their numbers.
 
Albertasaurus said:
Montreal was at 1.76 million in 2021, so nearly 300,000 ahead of us? I think we should pass them by 2030 at latest if current trends continue and we don't have another economic disaster like 2015-2021. Unfortunately they don't do an annual census like we do so we have to rely on the statscan census for their numbers.
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We might one-day pass Montreal proper, but Montreal is a far larger and more integrated urban region. It's less critical what the city population is v. the overall Montreal city-region of like 75 or 100 municipalities. We will not catch up to the Montreal region.

Calgary no longer does an annual census. We are actually quite unique to have done an annual census at all - as far as I know most other Canadian cities have never had their own census or stopped doing their own years ago.

On the one hand, I love the data and the local geographies of the municipal census, but tI no longer think there's any convincing reason why it's critical to do a municipal one annually. The municipal one had none of the socio-demographic layers that the federal census does, so beyond population and houses, it had limited value. I am not convinced there's a specific policy or response that would be triggered because you happened to have access to an annual census v. a 5 year count (with annual change being available, but only as an estimate). Cities, even fast growing ones, don't have a lot of decisions that would pivot on an annual basis because a number was confirmed through a census.
 
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Feb housing starts. Bounce back month for Edmonton and Vancouver. Montreal remains sluggish. Big month for Halifax, but it's an aberration, as 2023 they averaged around 400 starts a month, but lately that average has been increasing.

CitySFHsemirowapartmenttotal
Toronto2373215242284649
Vancouver1425411024022708
Calgary4601542797811674
Edmonton4341141939011642
Halifax4044829877
Montreal491614729808
Ott/Gat621887420587
Quebec29364240309
Winnipeg1112447124306
 
Surrealplaces said:
Feb housing starts. Bounce back month for Edmonton and Vancouver. Montreal remains sluggish. Big month for Halifax, but it's an aberration, as 2023 they averaged around 400 starts a month, but lately that average has been increasing.

CitySFHsemirowapartmenttotal
Toronto2373215242284649
Vancouver1425411024022708
Calgary4601542797811674
Edmonton4341141939011642
Halifax4044829877
Montreal491614729808
Ott/Gat621887420587
Quebec29364240309
Winnipeg1112447124306
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Calgary - the row-house king of Canada!

It's not something we are known for but all this grinding and policy work to get semi-detached and then infill rows really scaled up to the point we are regularly one of the best producers for this segment in the country. Now it's totally common in both old and new areas to have row houses and other lower/middle density forms be part of the scene here. This is incredibly different than Calgary 25 years ago and a good thing to make our housing market more dynamic so it's not totally bifurcated to detached or apartment towers.
 
CBBarnett said:
Calgary - the row-house king of Canada!

It's not something we are known for but all this grinding and policy work to get semi-detached and then infill rows really scaled up to the point we are regularly one of the best producers for this segment in the country. Now it's totally common in both old and new areas to have row houses and other lower/middle density forms be part of the scene here. This is incredibly different than Calgary 25 years ago and a good thing to make our housing market more dynamic so it's not totally bifurcated to detached or apartment towers.
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Calgary has good diversity in new housing, it’s a good balance of single-family homes, semi, detached and row homes combined with apartments. The big three and even Ottawa to a degree have poor diversity when it comes to new housing.
 
Alberta saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, adding 55,107 people. This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972.

The Daily — Canada's population estimates: Strong population growth in 2023

Since the end of 2020, demographic trends in Canada have shifted significantly. The fertility rate reached a record low of 1.33 children per woman in 2022. Millennials now outnumber baby boomers in Canada and the labour market has changed, with some sectors experiencing shortages. Many permanent...
www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca
 
AtlanticAvenue said:
Canada also just crossed 41,000,000 people on the Population Clock.

We hit 40,000,000 on June 23, 2023
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Statscan's model is a bit broken right now due to temporary residence surges. As it recalibrates with major temporary residence program changes rolling out over the next two years, we should see a stalling out and maybe even a retreat of population numbers. The Covid post-graduate work permit renewals caused a doubling up of that group, and that group will be starting to shrink with transition to PR or departures. They won't be backfilled at the same rate, with new international student arrivals dropping by at least 35%. That population will shrink faster too, because a big portion are 2 year programs, many will even stop admitting students outright due to plummeting demand for admission at Ontario Colleges (responsible alone for something like 140,000 admissions in 2023, I expect that to drop to 30,000 or so.

It is going to be wild.
 

Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people, CBC​


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www.cbc.ca

1711645759502.png
 
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So if Alberta grew by 202,000 people last year, based on historical trends I would imagine that between 1/3 and half of that growth occurred in and around Calgary, which translates into 70,000-100,000 new people for our burgeoning metropolis...getting really close to 2 million!
 
Question for those in the know, what are the primary drivers of temporary residents (student/work visa) in Alberta? That accounted for 79k (39%) of the total increase. Ontario and BC have a big "student" population but that doesn't seem to be the case here. There's agriculture/seasonal work but that shouldn't affect the annual numbers. Curious what's driving that surge.
 
Albertasaurus said:
So if Alberta grew by 202,000 people last year, based on historical trends I would imagine that between 1/3 and half of that growth occurred in and around Calgary, which translates into 70,000-100,000 new people for our burgeoning metropolis...getting really close to 2 million!
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I'm predicting Calgary will have taken about 53% of the population growth, with Edmonton around 34% and ~15% for the rest of the province. It's a guess, but also basing on housing starts and inventory on the real estate market over the past two years. Calgary housing starts have been significantly higher than Edmonton's, especially in 2023, with Calgary making up 56% of Alberta's housing starts in 2023 and Edmonton making up 37%. Housing starts don't translate directly to growth, but it gives an indication. If Calgary had 55% of the housing starts in a year when the province grew by 202,000 that should translate into some huge numbers. also Calgary's housing market exploded much more than anywhere else in the province during 2023, even during a time of interest rate hikes.
 
AtlanticAvenue said:
The student group doesn't just include students, they're grouped together as "Non-permanent Residents", so this includes students, refugees and temporary permit holders See Here

There's a great interactive graph at THIS CBC link, most are here on work permits.
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Seems like the biggest growth is in the work permits. What are the industries that are recruiting a lot of foreign workers?
 
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