Alberta Provincial Politics

[O-tac]

I have heard from someone who would know: the separatists have their signatures, and have enough seats on the UCP board to force a leadership review (like they did with Kenney)

The referendum will be scheduled for the fall.

Have you considered reporting this to CSIS? Essentially the separatists are coercing the ruling party of our province into a separation vote that 70+% of us don't want through blackmail. And to make matters worse, there is some overlap I think between these separatists and the Second Sons White Nationalists who stood atop an overpass between Calgary and Edmonton wearing white masks and a sign reading "Remigration Now" in the past week.

 

[darwink]

Have you considered reporting this to CSIS? Essentially the separatists are coercing the ruling party of our province into a separation vote that 70+% of us don't want through blackmail. And to make matters worse, there is some overlap I think between these separatists and the Second Sons White Nationalists who stood atop an overpass between Calgary and Edmonton wearing white masks and a sign reading "Remigration Now" in the past week.

In our system it is up to MLAs to decide they don't want to be part of a particular party anymore. They could consign the UCP to irrelevance today if they wanted to. Danielle Smith could end this if she wanted. They could form a new party that doesn't have grassroots control over leadership or nominations.

 

[Mountain Man]

I think the second people realize that we will lose Banff, Jasper, Waterton and every other national park, they will change their tune pretty quick. I don't want the Banff gates east of Canmore to be replaced by an actual border. Most First Nations would likely vote to stay in Canada, so figuring out borders there would be a shit show. So little actual thought has been put into this it blows my mind.

If Alberta separates I'm 100% moving to BC.

 

[O-tac]

In our system it is up to MLAs to decide they don't want to be part of a particular party anymore. They could consign the UCP to irrelevance today if they wanted to. Danielle Smith could end this if she wanted. They could form a new party that doesn't have grassroots control over leadership or nominations.

In theory sure. But here we all are being held hostage by a group of extremists connected to the extremists to our south. My Ukrainian neighbour was telling me the other day how the separatists' justifications for leaving the country sounded very similar to those from the Donbas region.

PS. I agree the UCP is now a separatist party. Problem is they never ran on that platform in the election. Smith and the lot of them are traitors imo.

 

[Mountain Man]

Smith and the lot of them are traitors imo.

Yep, I 100% agree with David Eby

 

[trtcttc]

In theory sure. But here we all are being held hostage by a group of extremists connected to the extremists to our south. My Ukrainian neighbour was telling me the other day how the separatists' justifications for leaving the country sounded very similar to those from the Donbas region.

PS. I agree the UCP is now a separatist party. Problem is they never ran on that platform in the election. Smith and the lot of them are traitors imo.

Every political party is made up of people, of course their views dictate the direction of the party. Nobody is holding us hostage or forcing a separation. They're putting this to a referendum. They're not separating from Canada without putting a clear and direct question to the electorate.

It's funny you bring up Donbas. They actually voted overwhelmingly to separate from the USSR by referendum, that's why it became part of modern day Ukraine before military invasion.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

It is safe to say this isn't a game anymore. If the premier and non-separatist MLAs think their budget this year will be bad just wait for the capital flight of entertaining a separation referendum.

I don't expect them to do the right thing and allow their party to fracture for the good of everyone. But that would be the noble thing to do. They should call the question in the leg, call the separatist MLAs bluff. The UCP's weird capitulation to their well-organized minority has run its course. A proper PC party can win Alberta, people are not excited about the NDP, and a lot of people want nothing to do with the far-right that controls the UCP. They're economic conservatives who tolerate the social conservatism of their cousins. A proper centre-right option that's biggest problem is arrogance and sky palace renovations would be so nice right about now.

 

[O-tac]

Putin used the referendum in the East of Ukraine as a pretext for invasion. Right now you have Donald Trump proclaiming he wants Canada as the 51st State, Scott Bissent vocally backing separation and Alberta 'joining' the USA, Steve Bannon admitting on his podcast that they really just want Alberta and our oil as well as Jeff Rath bragging about secret meetings with the American Administration discussing a $900 billion dollar 'line of credit'. This is all BEFORE they've even completed the petition.

 

[O-tac]

People need to open their eyes to what is happening. It's really no different from what happened to America. People dismissed MAGA as 'fringe' and how the worst would never come to pass because of checks and balances. Right now our Premier is trying to undermine the courts and their independence, creating a provincial police force, musing about leaving CPP, re-writing laws to force a separatist vote while lowering the bar for their petition, and blatant in the open co-ordination between the Trump administration and the separatists. It doesn't matter if the vote to leave Canada is likely destined to fail. Powerful people are moving land and sea to try and force this vote to happen. The mere mention of it is giving Imperial minded Project 2025 puppet Trump a pretext to declare a rigged outcome and cause a constitutional crisis, if not an actual war / invasion. This is not the time to dismiss the threat as being overblown or unrealistic. I've never in my life considered any possibility that we would be targeted by the US. That is no longer the case. And this traitorous lunatic grifter is smiling while she tears our province and country apart!

 

[kiwi33]

So when are we most likely to have this referandum?

 

[DougB]

YouTube served me a very polished NDP ad that could be the first content produced by the Fight Agency (YouTube's algorithm is usually spot on so not sure why it thought I'd be receptive to anything NDP or Nenshi). Belying it's expensive production, the ad has a couple of odd choices :

1) It focuses almost entirely on separation rather than going after numerous examples of UCP scandals and incompetence. If the separatist sentiment fizzles, what will be the NDP's campaign theme?

2) Nenshi using sports analogies or even appearing outdoors is about as authentic as Jason Kenney's pickup truck

I also saw an article about numerous people formerly associated with the Trudeau government joining Nenshi's campaign, such as pollster Dan Arnold. They might as well gift wrap an attack ad for the UCP.

 

[DougB]

Especially considering it just came to light that the UCP is offering $900 million to the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. Meanwhile people dying in ER's and parents of kids in overcrowded and underfunded classrooms keep being told their is no room in the budget for such frivolous expenses. We should pull ourselves up by the bootstraps while the O&G lobby gets showered in taxpayer money.

The Province of Alberta and the so-called "O&G Lobby" are one and the same regardless of which party is in power. As owner of most of the resources, the Province of Alberta acts in the best interest of its citizens by maximizing the value of its oil and gas. The $900M will likely be used to de-risk the upfront cost of a pipeline proposal to the west coast. In return for this contained downside, the upside is in the tens of billions.

Public services have been vastly overfunded as their costs have grown faster than has GDP. The only path to increased funding is increased GDP, such as through higher oil and gas production volumes and higher realized prices from reduced transportation spreads.

 

[trtcttc]

YouTube served me a very polished NDP ad that could be the first content produced by the Fight Agency (YouTube's algorithm is usually spot on so not sure why it thought I'd be receptive to anything NDP or Nenshi). Belying it's expensive production, the ad has a couple of odd choices :

1) It focuses almost entirely on separation rather than going after numerous examples of UCP scandals and incompetence. If the separatist sentiment fizzles, what will be the NDP's campaign theme?

2) Nenshi using sports analogies or even appearing outdoors is about as authentic as Jason Kenney's pickup truck

I also saw an article about numerous people formerly associated with the Trudeau government joining Nenshi's campaign, such as pollster Dan Arnold. They might as well gift wrap an attack ad for the UCP.

An attack ad about political staffers with no public profile joining the NDP is going to be more than useless. They already have Nenshi shaking hands with Trudeau and campaigning for Liberals in the NE, Dan Arnold ain't going to move the needle.

The election is a couple years away. you need to focus on the issue of the day to erode the voter base, I'm sure the campaign will pivot to healthcare when we do actually get in the election cycle.

The Province of Alberta and the so-called "O&G Lobby" are one and the same regardless of which party is in power. As owner of most of the resources, the Province of Alberta acts in the best interest of its citizens by maximizing the value of its oil and gas. The $900M will likely be used to de-risk the upfront cost of a pipeline proposal to the west coast. In return for this contained downside, the upside is in the tens of billions.

Public services have been vastly overfunded as their costs have grown faster than has GDP. The only path to increased funding is increased GDP, such as through higher oil and gas production volumes and higher realized prices from reduced transportation spreads.

Also these "$900M" figure is not like they're gifting that to O&G, it's to buy barrels, which is an asset with value. It's not the same as spending $900M on -insert social service.
This will have to come from federal and not just provincial, but I'd like to see at least one party run on radical reforms to the Canada Health Act. Too bad we border the US so any effort of that will be demonized, even though more Socialist left wing countries like Germany, Netherlands, Nordics, etc. have a public-private system that can deliver more timely care, while supporting the vulnerable. Privatization without supply side reforms will fail like Quebec, and we cannot continue to spend above OECD average while getting below average care.

 

[O-tac]

The Province of Alberta and the so-called "O&G Lobby" are one and the same regardless of which party is in power. As owner of most of the resources, the Province of Alberta acts in the best interest of its citizens by maximizing the value of its oil and gas. The $900M will likely be used to de-risk the upfront cost of a pipeline proposal to the west coast. In return for this contained downside, the upside is in the tens of billions.

Public services have been vastly overfunded as their costs have grown faster than has GDP. The only path to increased funding is increased GDP, such as through higher oil and gas production volumes and higher realized prices from reduced transportation spreads.

Well at least you're admitting we live in a Petro state kleptocracy. But why are you so opposed to the NDP if as you say it doesn't matter who is in power? Hmm...

I can distinctly remember Rachel Notley and the NDP actually creating and maintainting standards for O & G (such as carbon pricing and upping royalty rates as well as attempting to protect the Castle wilderness region) while also getting a pipeline built to the west coast.

Funny no mention of the $11 BILLION in renewables killed by the UCP. Or anything about diversification. Also, please explain the logic of spending a billion dollars on potential revenue rather than investing it directly into our ailing healthcare and education systems? Didn't Danielle Smith have a massive surplus when she took over? Now suddenly there's no money for public services. Just a dark pipeline of cash for separatist townhalls, Sam Mraiche owned businesses, petroleum lobby, endless court battles with the federal government, unwanted and unnecessary provincial police force, massively unpopular studies and surveys on leaving CPP, private schools, private surgical facilities, new Flames arena bribes, hundreds of millions in payouts to coal companies, $70 million in unusable Turkish Tylenol, hundreds of millions in privatizing labs and then reintegrating them back into AHS, billions dismantling AHS and creating more bureaucracy.

Any conservative who wants to lecture the NDP about fiscal responsibility can kindly pound sand. The UCP is barely better than the Republicans to the south whom they want to join and illegally take our province with them.

 

[darwink]

I do like how people seem to think provincial policy matters almost at all. The NDP did not make oil prices low. The UCP did not make oil prices high. Electing the NDP would not make oil prices low again.