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Alberta Provincial Politics

If an election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • UCP

    Votes: 9 13.6%

  • NDP

    Votes: 48 72.7%

  • Liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 4 6.1%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 5 7.6%
  • Total voters
    66
On another note... wonder how many of these will stand up to scrutiny?

www.ctvnews.ca

‘Forever Canadian’ petition surpasses goal, collects 456K signatures

Thomas Lukaszuk, a former deputy premier of Alberta who has circulated a petition to make it official policy for the province to stay in Canada, says it has just over 456,000 signatures.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca

Thomas Lukaszuk, a former deputy premier of Alberta who has circulated a petition to make it official policy for the province to stay in Canada, says it has just over 456,000 signatures.

The final tally is far greater than the required 294,000 signatures to initiate a possible referendum in Alberta.
 
I've heard about a 20% loss rate if the petition gatherers knew what they were doing (as opposed to our new Councillor Johnston who managed a 100% loss rate on his recall petition).
 
Regarding the drama with the teachers, it will be interesting to see if the Minister of Education riding gets enough signatures to trigger a recall, and thus by-election, if the NDP can win the seat. It was a close race last time. Maybe flipping one riding would be enough for the UCP to course correct on this issue, maybe not.

The problem is though, this all takes months (years?) to get change implemented, which does nothing to alleviate the current situation. Even if a fair deal was reached through negotiations, it would have taken a long time to see results, but we would at least have a starting point. Now, most teachers would not even consider where we are as a "proper" starting point, so it will be even longer. Meanwhile, classrooms will continue to be overcrowded or filled with students who shouldn't be in there (complex cases that disproportionately take up the teachers time/resources, further limiting the eduction the rest of the class gets), and good / experienced teachers will start to leave. My wife is a teacher with about 20 years of experience, and is now sderiously considering quitting over all that has happened. She loves being a teacher, but has seen conditions deteriorate over the course of her career it has gotten to the point she feels she can't do a good job anymore, and it is now apparent that the provincial government doesn't seem to care about that.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
You can't expect them to repeal the Alberta Bill of Rights. It was invoked to say that it doesn't apply here.

This isn't an awful deal but it doesn't move the needle at all, it is an endorsement of the status quo. If you don't know the details... I won't pretend that 12% is a great deal considering they have had multiple contracts with no raise. So 12% looks good on paper but reality for tenured teachers is that percentage is stretched over a longer term. The hiring of teachers is also something that looks good on paper but a teacher or so per school over four years, a teach/EA per student ratio should've been the measure. It wouldn't have meant waiting for school instruction it would've meant a commitment to more attention to each student. There's also the commitment to look at the complexity of classrooms, that's fine but nothing ever comes of these things. A big study was done in the early 2000s and it has collected dust on a shelf. The teachers I know will continue teaching multiple grade levels in one classroom because the students abilities vary so drastically.

Anyways... The issue is and should be how we got to a completed deal: Little, to no negotiation. A contract, twice rejected, was imposed.

I had a job where I tried to negotiate better pay and a better work/life balance, I was told it was the best they could do. I looked for new work and eventually, when I left for another job, they offered me what I asked for, it was too late. Teachers will leave or quit because of this contract; the pay and conditions are better in every other province. Student learning conditions will not improve under this contract, but who cares for most people school is childcare.
Click to expand...
I think you mis-interpreted what I said. I meant the Notwithstanding clause does have its merits and intended purpose against federal overreach, but it should not be used to override your own provincial legislations. Because obviously, there would be no overreach.

I don't agree with legislating people back to work, but I do think we should be mandating enhanced mediation at some point. When a negotiation is at a standstill, there needs to be a way to resolve it rather than just yelling at each side their demands back and forth. In private union negotiations, the union has an incentive to work out a deal, destroying the company doesn't help union jobs either. But for public services like teachers and Canada post, the union has no incentive to negotiate since the "company" would never go bankrupt no matter how long the negotiations go. Now with the notwithstanding clause, the government has no incentive to negotiate because they can just mandate an agreement. In the end, I think we just need mediation like salary arbitration in the NHL, where both sides are bound by the outcome to force a resolution where both sides moves to meet in the middle.
 
trtcttc said:
I think you mis-interpreted what I said. I meant the Notwithstanding clause does have its merits and intended purpose against federal overreach, but it should not be used to override your own provincial legislations. Because obviously, there would be no overreach.

I don't agree with legislating people back to work, but I do think we should be mandating enhanced mediation at some point. When a negotiation is at a standstill, there needs to be a way to resolve it rather than just yelling at each side their demands back and forth. In private union negotiations, the union has an incentive to work out a deal, destroying the company doesn't help union jobs either. But for public services like teachers and Canada post, the union has no incentive to negotiate since the "company" would never go bankrupt no matter how long the negotiations go. Now with the notwithstanding clause, the government has no incentive to negotiate because they can just mandate an agreement. In the end, I think we just need mediation like salary arbitration in the NHL, where both sides are bound by the outcome to force a resolution where both sides moves to meet in the middle.
Click to expand...
I know what you meant, I didn't mean to mischaracterize what you had said just meant to add to it.

I was just saying they needed to use the notwithstanding clause because the alternative was a fight in court (which Ralph Klein lost when he tried to do this) or repealing the section of the Alberta Bill of Rights that they are invoking the clause on (imagine repealing a section of the Bill of Rights... which this is equal to just only for a certain group).

Enhanced mediation is something the ATA rightfully avoided; it only put certain things on the table. The province had the ability to send them to binding arbitration but that would've meant a ratio would've been on the table. They were afraid of what the arbitrator would've decided.
 
Last edited:
trtcttc said:
I think you mis-interpreted what I said. I meant the Notwithstanding clause does have its merits and intended purpose against federal overreach, but it should not be used to override your own provincial legislations. Because obviously, there would be no overreach.
Click to expand...
Spot on

trtcttc said:
I don't agree with legislating people back to work, but I do think we should be mandating enhanced mediation at some point. When a negotiation is at a standstill, there needs to be a way to resolve it rather than just yelling at each side their demands back and forth. In private union negotiations, the union has an incentive to work out a deal, destroying the company doesn't help union jobs either. But for public services like teachers and Canada post, the union has no incentive to negotiate since the "company" would never go bankrupt no matter how long the negotiations go. Now with the notwithstanding clause, the government has no incentive to negotiate because they can just mandate an agreement. In the end, I think we just need mediation like salary arbitration in the NHL, where both sides are bound by the outcome to force a resolution where both sides moves to meet in the middle.
Click to expand...
I think you've hit on the right idea here, but you have it backwards. The unusual thing here is that the employer wants itself to fail - or at the very least has demonstrated no interest in improving 'productivity'.

I really don't buy that private unions have any more incentive to deal than public ones. They all just want better working conditions and better pay. Especially when striking - they want and need to get back to work. I'd argue the existential threat is actually a more tangible concern to both postal workers and public teachers than most other vocations, but I think it's pretty close to irrelevant during collective bargaining.
 
lemongrab said:
I think you've hit on the right idea here, but you have it backwards. The unusual thing here is that the employer wants itself to fail - or at the very least has demonstrated no interest in improving 'productivity'.

I really don't buy that private unions have any more incentive to deal than public ones. They all just want better working conditions and better pay. Especially when striking - they want and need to get back to work. I'd argue the existential threat is actually a more tangible concern to both postal workers and public teachers than most other vocations, but I think it's pretty close to irrelevant during collective bargaining.
Click to expand...
Postal workers and teachers will always exist as long as Canada and Alberta exist, so there is no existential threat to their jobs. The teachers demands are far more reasonable than the postal workers. I highly doubt the a private union would be making those kind of demands knowing the company is losing billions and is essentially insolvent. If a private company operated at those loss levels, it really would go bankrupt and cease to exist, rather than having the taxpayer backstop it.

CalgaryTiger said:
Enhanced mediation is something the ATA rightfully avoided; it only put certain things on the table. The province had the ability to send them to binding arbitration but that would've meant a ratio would've been on the table. They would afraid of what the arbitrator would've decided.
Click to expand...
Agreed that binding arbitration should be the path for these negotiations to force a resolution.
 
Roaring Flames said:
The opinion of Smith as leader and the popularity of the UCP are both falling in the latest poll
calgaryherald.com

'Reputational challenges': New poll shows public support for Smith, UCP has dipped amid teachers' strike

Response to teachers' strike appeared to sour some Albertans' opinions of Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP, suggests new survey from Leger
calgaryherald.com calgaryherald.com
Click to expand...
I had my doubts people would care, maybe the tide has turned. I'm not sure what they could do to bring people back, typically in politics when you start to slip it is hard to pull it back. Maybe a leader change? Conservatives always axe the leader in cases like this. Saying all this the NDP is by no means guaranteed anything, they can always stub their toe by proposing "economic strategy". There is also the little PC Party thing that is going to be resolved here soon. This is only just beginning of what could be an interesting provincial political story.

Smith probably should've called a Summer or Fall election to, "get Albertan's support as the province struggles with low resource revenue."
 
Not to double post but...

The Electoral Boundaries Commission has released its proposed maps of electoral divisions for the next election; they seem to have kept their heads on their necks. In my quick glance at Calgary I actually think these maps could lead to a worse outcome for the UCP.

2023 Election Results
1761761255785.png


Proposed Calgary Buffalo
1761761304973.png

Proposed Calgary Confluence
1761761381022.png


abebc.ca

Home | 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

The 2025 Electoral Boundaries Commission has been established Alberta’s population has increased substantially in the last eight years since the previous Electoral Boundaries Commission. The Electoral Boundaries Commission Act requires a review of our provincial constituency boundaries prior to...
abebc.ca abebc.ca

abebc.ca

Maps - 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

PDF maps for the interim report are available below: Quick links: Calgary | Edmonton | Rest of Alberta | Option B Calgary ED01_CALGARY_ACADIA ED02_CALGARY_BEDDINGTON ED03_CALGARY_BHULLAR_MCCALL ED04_CALGARY_BOW ED05_CALGARY_BUFFALO ED06_CALGARY_CONFLUENCE ED07_CALGARY_CROSS ED08_CALGARY_CURRIE...
abebc.ca abebc.ca
 
CalgaryTiger said:
Not to double post but...

The Electoral Boundaries Commission has released its proposed maps of electoral divisions for the next election; they seem to have kept their heads on their necks. In my quick glance at Calgary I actually think these maps could lead to a worse outcome for the UCP.

2023 Election Results
View attachment 691901

Proposed Calgary Buffalo
View attachment 691902
Proposed Calgary Confluence
View attachment 691903

abebc.ca

Home | 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

The 2025 Electoral Boundaries Commission has been established Alberta’s population has increased substantially in the last eight years since the previous Electoral Boundaries Commission. The Electoral Boundaries Commission Act requires a review of our provincial constituency boundaries prior to...
abebc.ca abebc.ca

abebc.ca

Maps - 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

PDF maps for the interim report are available below: Quick links: Calgary | Edmonton | Rest of Alberta | Option B Calgary ED01_CALGARY_ACADIA ED02_CALGARY_BEDDINGTON ED03_CALGARY_BHULLAR_MCCALL ED04_CALGARY_BOW ED05_CALGARY_BUFFALO ED06_CALGARY_CONFLUENCE ED07_CALGARY_CROSS ED08_CALGARY_CURRIE...
abebc.ca abebc.ca
Click to expand...

The Commission’s views can notably be summarized as recommending that:
• one additional electoral division be added north and west of Calgary to reflect the significant increase in population in Cochrane and especially in Airdrie;
• two new additional electoral divisions be added to Calgary, one in the city’s Centre-east and the other in the city’s North, to reflect the significant growth in the city, particularly its North and East;
• an additional new electoral division be added to the southeast of Edmonton;
• an additional new electoral division be added to the west of Edmonton, incorporating Enoch Cree Nation and adjacent area in Parkland County;
• six electoral divisions in the urban centre of Edmonton (Edmonton-City Centre, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Riverview, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Gold Bar, and Edmonton-HighlandsNorwood) be consolidated into five to reflect the fact that the rate of population growth in these areas has been below that of the city, and there is no justifiable reason that these electoral divisions should have populations markedly below the provincial average;
• six electoral divisions in the western and central non-urban areas of the province (Banff-Kananaskis, Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, Lacombe-Ponoka, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills) be consolidated into five, having grown at a rate less than that of the province as a whole;
• seven electoral divisions in the north of the province (Peace River, Central Peace-Notley, Lesser Slave Lake, Grande Prairie-Wapiti, West Yellowhead, Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, and Athabasca-BarrheadWestlock) be consolidated into six, having either lost population or grown at a rate that is less than the province as a whole;
• two electoral divisions that are mostly in Calgary incorporate portions of adjacent counties;
• an electoral division that is mostly in Foothills County and the Town of Okotoks (and should mostly be considered a rural electoral division) include some territory in the City of Calgary; and x various resulting and/or independent constituency boundary changes be made, considering the Commission’s obligations under the Act.

So my best guess,
UCP lose 2 rural ridings but pickup one Cochrane/Airdrie riding.
NDP loses 1 urban Edmonton riding but can potentially win 2 new suburban Edmonton ridings.
NDP gains one central Calgary riding and can likely win the new North-East riding.

Also under the old ridings, if NDP won all the swing ridings the result would be:
45-42 NDP
Now it would be:
48-41 NDP

Edit:
Calgary-Acadia is adding Lake Bonavista so it will be harder for ndp since they barely won that one.
Banff riding is adding Jasper and losing springbank so it will be easier for ndp
 
Last edited:
CalgaryTiger said:
Not to double post but...

The Electoral Boundaries Commission has released its proposed maps of electoral divisions for the next election; they seem to have kept their heads on their necks. In my quick glance at Calgary I actually think these maps could lead to a worse outcome for the UCP.

2023 Election Results
View attachment 691901

Proposed Calgary Buffalo
View attachment 691902
Proposed Calgary Confluence
View attachment 691903

abebc.ca

Home | 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

The 2025 Electoral Boundaries Commission has been established Alberta’s population has increased substantially in the last eight years since the previous Electoral Boundaries Commission. The Electoral Boundaries Commission Act requires a review of our provincial constituency boundaries prior to...
abebc.ca abebc.ca

abebc.ca

Maps - 2025 Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

PDF maps for the interim report are available below: Quick links: Calgary | Edmonton | Rest of Alberta | Option B Calgary ED01_CALGARY_ACADIA ED02_CALGARY_BEDDINGTON ED03_CALGARY_BHULLAR_MCCALL ED04_CALGARY_BOW ED05_CALGARY_BUFFALO ED06_CALGARY_CONFLUENCE ED07_CALGARY_CROSS ED08_CALGARY_CURRIE...
abebc.ca abebc.ca
Click to expand...

Calgary Confluence looks weird to me.
1761768694952.png


What does Cliff Bungalow, Mayland Heights, Mission and Forest Lawn have in common?
 
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