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Statscan 2017 numbers

I believe adding Foothills MD would make the two CMAs about the same size in Area. Somewhere around 9K square kilometers iirc. @UrbanWarrior probably can confirm.

We'd still be around 1000 km2 smaller actually.


Edit: 700 km2 smaller, so basically the difference is the entire geographic area of the City of Calgary.
 
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Statcan just released their January population estimates. They only do their quarterly updates at the provincial/territorial and national levels.

They estimate that Canada grew by 0.21% from October to January. That's a gain of 78,805 from 36,885,049 to 36,963,854. Barring any weirdness, this should be the last estimate for Canada below 37 million! :D

Alberta had the strongest estimated growth on a percentage basis for any province and was only behind the Yukon for tops in the country. It grew by an estimated 0.30%, working out to 12,733. Up from 4,306,039 to 4,318,772. That was the largest growth in absolute terms behind Quebec and Ontario. Ontario's growth has been scorching lately, it was the fastest growing in the two quarters prior to this and by fairly wide margins. Ontario apparently grew by more from July to October than the whole country did from October to January.

As an aside, Alberta out paced BC this moth for the first time in a while. Nuts to them. Troublingly, the east coast provinces all shrank, as did the territories apart from the Yukon. Saskatchewan and Manitoba posted decent growth. Manitoba had the 3rd fastest growth rate among provinces.
 
Wow, Ontario grew by nearly 235 000 year over year. That I pretty wild. Alberta almost back up to 60 000. :)
 
What are people's thoughts on the population growth rate of the Calgary area? Are you pleased with the current rate? Would you like the population rate to increase back to 2014/2015 levels?

I am actually kind of happy that the rate of increase has slowed down since 2015. I think that we grew too fast during the years 1997-2009. I also think an annual increase of 12,000 people for the municipality(Calgary) and 20,000 people for the metro area is a healthy number.
 
I think I'm roughly in agreement with SP. I think the upsides of high growth generally outweigh the downsides. In part because of what the high grow implies about the state of the economy. The Calgary CMA only actually grew faster that 35K per year in 4 of the last 16 years and only above 40K in the 3 years from 2011-14. It hasn't been above 50K any time this millennium. Those 3 years were pretty scorching. Prices shot up. Transit was crammed. Downtown eateries were slammed. But it was also a dynamic time for the city. Lots of fancy new buildings were proposed. Payrolls were rising. New Companies were listing. The Stampede was lively. We'd probably rather have had more of that over than the reset we've gone through over the last few years even if it has had it's benefits.

The ideal state is probably better expressed as a percentage. I'd say we'd probably rather have things around 2.5% annual growth. Closer to 3% we get scorching, closer to 2% things feel tepid. Interestingly, I don't think we've had a period of sustained growth around 2.5% recently. In the booms it shoots up over 3%, but it tends to fall back towards 2% or below in the busts. The closest we've had was the period between 2006 and 2009 where growth was 2.61%, 2.78% and 2.82%.

Source: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47
 
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I think I'm roughly in agreement with SP. I think the upsides of high growth generally outweigh the downsides. In part because of what the high grow implies about the state of the economy. The Calgary CMA only actually grew faster that 35K per year in 4 of the last 16 years and only above 40K in the 3 years from 2011-14. It hasn't been above 50K any time this millennium. Those 3 years were pretty scorching. Prices shot up. Transit was crammed. Downtown eateries were slammed. But it was also a dynamic time for the city. Lots of fancy new buildings were proposed. Payrolls were rising. New Companies were listing. The Stampede was lively. We'd probably rather have had more of that over than the reset we've gone through over the last few years even if it has had it's benefits.

The ideal state is probably better expressed as a percentage. I'd say we'd probably rather have things around 2.5% annual growth. Closer to 3% we get scorching, closer to 2% things feel tepid. Interestingly, I don't think we've had a period of sustained growth around 2.5% recently. In the booms it shoots up over 3%, but it tends to fall back towards 2% or below in the busts. The closest we've had was the period between 2006 and 2009 where growth was 2.61%, 2.78% and 2.82%.

Source: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47

I think your link is dead.

Yeah, I agree, expressing growth as a percentage is much better.

My biggest fear with a high growth rate is that suburban expansion will outpace the growth of the inner city. Keep in mind, I'm not only referring to the suburban expansion within the limits of Calgary, there is also tremendous suburban expansion in the satellite communities(Airdrie, Cochrane, Chesteremere, Okotoks, High River and Strathmore). Needless to say, this growth will have a negative effect of increased pollution(although cars are more efficient), and added water consumption. Don't get me wrong, I think Calgary and the CRP have made huge strides with promoting more concentrated/urban developments but I think the benefits of a future Calgary metro area with 3 million people vs. the 1.5 million people we have today are negligible when comparing the disadvantages.

My dream scenario:
  • 1-1.5% annual growth rate for the metro region
  • Calgary captures 80% of the growth
  • Most growth is concentrated with the existing urban footprint
    • More secondary suites
    • Concentrated/urban developents(University city, Currie Barracks)
    • Keeping building in the core(More Beltline developments, EV, Office-Residential conversions)
    • Redeveloping under performing areas(Westbrook, Macleod trail, Forest Lawn)
  • The next 10-15 years we can play catch-up
    • Greenline LRT
    • Art Museum
    • New Arena
    • BRT Network
    • More amenities, restaurants and retail in the Beltline, core and urban corridors

I understand that I'm probably coming off as a smug inner city asshole and this scenario will probably drastically increase the price on SFH, and most people don't want to raise a family in a two bedroom apartment.
 
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I think Calgary is improving at handling its growth, but still has a ways to go. When looking back at the growth in the 1970's and 80's it was all suburban growth with no thought to the inner city or the effects of suburban growth, so it's good to see those topics now in the loop. I would like to see a steady ~2% growth rate, but definitely more of the growth in the core or inner city. We're getting there, but it's a slow process.

One big hurdle is the cost of housing for families in the inner city as you mentioned @Social Justice. If we can find a way to make 3 bedroom 1500sq ft apartments/townhouses more affordable for families you would see so much more inner city development happening.
 
Agreed with SP and OB, I'm happiest with 30 - 35k a year. But I don't mind the 20 - 25k we are currently seeing. We definitely needed a correction, and I'm thinking we will stabilize to around 30 000 per year in the mid term.

My ideal scenario is where intensification takes up 75% (and increasing) of growth and sprawl taking 25% (and decreasing) of growth.
 
I understand what you're saying about wanting to catch up on infrastructure, but I think 1% is far too low. I think that's just barely above the natural growth rate for the city. 1% grow for 2017 into 2018 based on the Statcan numbers is just shy of 15K. Excess births over deaths was 10,192 according to the 2017 civic census. I think we need more than 5K net immigrants if we're hoping to fill in the downtown core.

If the CMA grew by 2-2.5% (which is between 29.7K and 37.2K for 2107-18) and the split was something 50-25-25 urban-suburban-exurban I think that would work out pretty well.
 
I think Calgary is improving at handling its growth, but still has a ways to go. When looking back at the growth in the 1970's and 80's it was all suburban growth with no thought to the inner city or the effects of suburban growth, so it's good to see those topics now in the loop. I would like to see a steady ~2% growth rate, but definitely more of the growth in the core or inner city. We're getting there, but it's a slow process.

One big hurdle is the cost of housing for families in the inner city as you mentioned @Social Justice. If we can find a way to make 3 bedroom 1500sq ft apartments/townhouses more affordable for families you would see so much more inner city development happening.
The million dollar question. Outside of tax breaks or some sort of subsidies, I don't see anyway for this to happen. I'm not against tax breaks or subsidies, if that's what it takes to make it work. Perhaps if the new home levy was bumped from 15K to 25K, the extra 10K could go toward subsidising inner city development?

It's difficult as developers and purchasers would look at neighbouring communities like Okotoks, and Airdrie in order to avoid and taxes or levies, etc..
 
Having a planning and approval system where no development of 3 bedroom townhomes that met certain criteria were ever rejected, and had a guaranteed 4 week turnaround for permits, would be a great help. Perhaps on every street with an alley?

It isn't just about money as in subsidies. It is about the time value of money (how much time does your money sit in a development from acquisition to final conveyance), and the risk premium (risk that money sitting in a property won't generate any return because the city will deny approvals). I am way more comfortable spending public money on speed those up, than introducing a $ cross subsidy based on location.

I'd also be for creating something like Attainable Homes, but it builds market housing forms that are being missed. In this case, it would build family townhouses and walkups. It would take them all the way through the process to near completion, then it would sell the developments to either institutional investors to use as rentals, or as condos. Then it recycles the capital and starts again.
 
I posted this in the Canada forum on SSP - I think it belongs here as well
Calgary CMA 2016
population 1,374,650
Visible minority 34%

Calgary City 2016
Population 1,222,405
  1. Visible minority 36%

    Below was as far as I was able to drill down to my neighbourhood, NE Calgary. Very suburban and in the north, new, growing, and under development. Approximately 70% visible minority. This is the outlier, all other Calgary Federal electoral districts have a more even distribution.

    Census Profile, 2016 Census
    Calgary Skyview (Federal electoral district)

    Visible minority population approximately 70%
    Total - Visible minority for the population in private households
    Population 135,110
    Total visible Minority 93,910

    South Asian 50,290
    Chinese 5,220
    Black 9,705
    Filipino 13,040
    Latin American 3,365
    Arab 3,780
    Southeast Asian 3,015
    West Asian 2,535
    Korean 230
    Japanese 215

    Not a visible
    minority 41,200


    Even though the southern boundary extends into the SE, it's considered to be in the NE.

    Census Profile, 2016 Census
    Calgary Forest Lawn [Federal electoral district]

    Visible minority population approximately 53%
    Total population 111,100
    Total visible minority 58,640
    South Asian 12,740
    Chinese 4,655
    Black 9,285
    Filipino 11,000
    Latin American 2,775
    Arab 6,665
    Southeast Asian 7,465
    West Asian 1,295
    Korean 75
    Japanese 95
    Not a visible minority 52,465


    Calgary Nose Hill
    Population 115,560
    Visible minority 47%

    Calgary Rocky Ridge
    Population 130,415
    Visible minority 39%

    Calgary Signal Hill
    Population 120,005
    Visible minority 29%

    Calgary Heritage
    Population 110,965
    Visible minority 27%

    Calgary Centre
    Population 115,495
    Visible minority 25%

    Calgary Shepard
    Population 146,680
    Visible minority 25%

    Calgary Confederation
    Population 117,160
    Visible minority 24%

    Calgary Midnapore
    Population 119,920
    Visible minority 22%
 

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