Oddball
Senior Member
Anyone else excited for the Draft Lottery on Saturday?
I worked up a spread sheet that shows' the Flames' present odds in the lotto. The odds will change depending on who wins what round, but going in they look like this:
Calgary Picks 1st: 8.50%
Calgary Picks 2nd: 8.77%
Calgary Picks 3rd: 9.01%
Calgary Picks 5th: 9.92%
Calgary Picks 6th: 35.46%
Calgary Picks 7th: 25.47%
Calgary Picks 8th: 3.70%
The sum of those numbers is 100.83% due to rounding error, but it pretty closely reflects the odds. I'm a little disappointed that despite finishing 5th from the bottom the have a ~60% chance of picking 6th or 7th. Still they have a ~26% chance of picking 1st, 2nd or 3rd which would be the highest pick in franchise history.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Calgary gets to pick 2nd or 3rd and takes one of the two big Finnish right wingers slated to go in those spots. It's going to be an interesting off season for the team.
Just for Silence&Motion, here are Toronto's odds:
Toronto Picks 1st: 20.00%
Toronto Picks 2nd: 17.49%
Toronto Picks 3rd: 15.02%
Toronto Picks 4th: 47.49%
I worked up a spread sheet that shows' the Flames' present odds in the lotto. The odds will change depending on who wins what round, but going in they look like this:
Calgary Picks 1st: 8.50%
Calgary Picks 2nd: 8.77%
Calgary Picks 3rd: 9.01%
Calgary Picks 5th: 9.92%
Calgary Picks 6th: 35.46%
Calgary Picks 7th: 25.47%
Calgary Picks 8th: 3.70%
The sum of those numbers is 100.83% due to rounding error, but it pretty closely reflects the odds. I'm a little disappointed that despite finishing 5th from the bottom the have a ~60% chance of picking 6th or 7th. Still they have a ~26% chance of picking 1st, 2nd or 3rd which would be the highest pick in franchise history.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Calgary gets to pick 2nd or 3rd and takes one of the two big Finnish right wingers slated to go in those spots. It's going to be an interesting off season for the team.
Just for Silence&Motion, here are Toronto's odds:
Toronto Picks 1st: 20.00%
Toronto Picks 2nd: 17.49%
Toronto Picks 3rd: 15.02%
Toronto Picks 4th: 47.49%
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