So tomorrow’s the big day. Any predictions? I’m gonna call it for Nenshi, he pulls it off, but not by a wide margin. Something like 44% - 38% for Smith.
This is the first election I've followed (and participated in) where I have absolutely no clue what the outcome is going to be. As far as I can tell, it's not out of the realm of possibility for this to be a total rout on either side. It could be a landslide for progressive candidates, a landslide for "Manning Centre" candidates, or anywhere in between.
On a side note, it makes me realize just what a media mecca Toronto is. Having only participated in local elections in Toronto before, I'm used to multiple polling firms providing weekly results so that you can tell which polls are outliers and you can monitor the changing fortunes of particular candidates. You also have, between the papers, television, and radio, dozens of local reporters chasing multiple angles. In Calgary we've only gotten a few sporadic polls from dubious sources that go in opposite directions. We also only have a handful of local reporters who can only focus on a couple different issues at a time. Even after the election, we'll really have no idea what determined the fate of the candidates. If Bill Smith loses will it be because of his Green Line misstep? His problems in business? Or was he just a boring outsider who never had a shot against a media savvy incumbent? If Nenshi loses was it because of his actions during the campaign? Was he too arrogant and snarky in debates and on the campaign trail? Or were Calgarians just depressed an angry about the economy and were ready to vote for change no matter what?
This is all to say that people should support local journalism like The Sprawl.