Alberta Provincial Politics

[Surrealplaces]

I guess the numbers aren't overly surprising. I had thought maybe 4 of the toss-up ridings that were leaning UCP (Calgary Bow, Calgary North, Calgary NW and Calgary Cross) might surprise and go NDP. Calgary East and Lethbridge-East were not far off either. As Darwink had alluded to, if the NDP had 2-3k more in votes, they could have taken it. That said, there were some seats the NDP won that were very close as well.

The big takeaway for me is and what is not good news for the UCP is the amount of votes the NDP got in Calgary. The NDP winning 14 seats (close to winning 18) in Calgary is significant. As I've said before, the cities are future for Alberta elections. It makes me wonder what would happen if the NDP had a leader from Calgary for example.

 

[artvandelay]

Wow, close election.

I really think the NDP could have won if they didn't make a few key mistakes in the campaign.

 

[darwink]

Wow, close election.

I really think the NDP could have won if they didn't make a few key mistakes in the campaign.

With the margins so tight, the election could have swung on tiny things that moved around usually immeasurably small parts of the electorate. As much as it pains me, the too cute position on corporate taxes, not inoculating (having a substantive position with endorsers) on 'downtown' disorder, dancing around the arena funding, not running (at least in my suburb) a single positive YouTube ad.

Heck, if it rained yesterday the results would likely have been different.

 

[DougB]

Wow, close election.

I really think the NDP could have won if they didn't make a few key mistakes in the campaign.

Both campaigns were lackluster, but the NDP's was worse. What did it offer beyond slinging mud about unacceptable views allegedly held by UCP candidates supposedly evidenced by hot takes expressed through social media or podcasts?

Smith will either purge the TBA influence or the UCP will be in search of yet another leader. Should be much more interesting than the campaign.

 

[Silence&Motion]

There were 24 electoral divisions in 2019 where the NDP were less than 25 percentage points behind the UCP. They came up short on several of them, particularly the ones outside Calgary (Lesser Slave Lake, Lethbridge-East, and almost Banff-Kananaskis). There were actually quite a few ridings that swung more than 20 points, almost all of them in Calgary, but many of those had a much larger gap (e.g. Calgary-Shaw went from a 40-point gap to just 14). The NDP's path forward is to try to lock Calgary's inner-city and NE into their base of support, and push the swing districts further into the Calgary suburbs and exurbs, including Airdrie, as well as Red Deer which was surprisingly close.

Anyway, to rural Albertans: thanks for buying us a new hockey arena. Good luck finding a doctor. However, on the bright side, at least you'll have the next 4 years to terrorize public school teachers and university students with culture war bullshit. I'm sure the World Economic Forum is shaking in their boots after that election.

Electoral Division	NDP-UCP Gap 2019	NDP-UCP Gap 2023	Change
10 - Calgary-Falconridge	-0.6%​	16.8%​	17.4%​
06 - Calgary-Currie	-0.8%​	13.8%​	14.6%​
25 - Calgary-Varsity	-2.7%​	17.7%​	20.4%​
43 - Edmonton-South West	-3.1%​	14.3%​	17.4%​
81 - Sherwood Park	-5.3%​	6.4%​	11.8%​
15 - Calgary-Klein	-7.7%​	4.1%​	11.8%​
50 - Banff-Kananaskis	-9.3%​	0.9%​	10.1%​
71 - Lethbridge-East	-13.6%​	-3.4%​	10.2%​
20 - Calgary-North East	-13.7%​	10.1%​	23.7%​
75 - Morinville-St. Albert	-16.8%​	-6.1%​	10.7%​
05 - Calgary-Cross	-16.8%​	-3.4%​	13.4%​
02 - Calgary-Beddington	-17.3%​	2.8%​	20.2%​
07 - Calgary-East	-17.4%​	-5.0%​	12.4%​
08 - Calgary-Edgemont	-18.7%​	1.2%​	19.9%​
01 - Calgary-Acadia	-19.6%​	0.0%​	19.6%​
84 - Strathcona-Sherwood Park	-20.2%​	-8.5%​	11.7%​
09 - Calgary-Elbow	-20.8%​	3.0%​	23.8%​
70 - Lesser Slave Lake	-21.5%​	-31.1%​	-9.6%​
03 - Calgary-Bow	-21.7%​	-1.5%​	20.2%​
13 - Calgary-Glenmore	-23.5%​	0.1%​	23.7%​
19 - Calgary-North	-24.1%​	-0.7%​	23.3%​
62 - Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	-24.2%​	-20.5%​	3.7%​
12 - Calgary-Foothills	-24.5%​	1.2%​	25.7%​
21 - Calgary-North West	-24.8%​	-0.6%​	24.2%​

 

[Silence&Motion]

TBH, it's probably better for the NDP to have lost this election the way they did. If they had won, they would have had a tiny majority (potentially resulting in a deadlock around the speakership), and their legitimacy would be further called into question from losing the popular vote by several points. On top of that, the price of oil has been in steady decline for the past year and the province will likely lose its budget surplus.

The oil price/budget alone is going to force Smith to make some hard choices. However, she also has a caucus dominated by extremist rural candidates backed by Take Back Alberta, despite the fact that she won re-election by campaigning very explicitly as a moderate, promising more funding for social services and health care. She ran away from topics like the sovereignty act, the provincial pension fund, and police force. Is her base going to allow her to govern the way she campaigned? And if she cuts hard to the right, the few Calgary moderates left in her caucus will reminder her that less than 2000 Calgarians made the difference in the election. All and all, it seems very likely that she could follow the previous five Conservative leaders by getting pushed out by her own party before her term ends.

From the NDP's perspective, better to wait out this potentially chaotic term as a "government in waiting", and put their faith in the fact that Alberta's population is diversifying and urbanizing. This election, they had to flip at least 20 seats, with up to 25% vote swings. Next election, they'll only have to flip 5 with less than a 5% swing. Basically, the NDP needs to focus on building a larger structural base. They need to be able to get more than 50% of the vote, and they need a solid base of 30 or so seats that they can win by 20 points.

 

[Mountain Man]

We need the right to split again. I hope Smith governs as a moderate and the TBA nutjobs go and start their own party.

 

[darwink]

What did it offer beyond slinging mud about unacceptable views allegedly held by UCP candidates supposedly evidenced by hot takes expressed through social media or podcasts?

Well, when it was the Premier, and there is no denying, there is no allegedly. Most of what the NDP played with were after she quit being a journalist. And unlike in 2019 it wasn't them surfacing it, attempting to make the negative the news of the campaign. Unfortunately for the NDP, the news capacity has degraded to the point where the province maybe gets two stories a day written. It used to be five a decade ago.

While I acknowledge the NDPs 'air-war' ads were resoundingly negative, the mailers, and the leaders tour were resoundingly positive.

It is exceedingly hard to get media to focus on positive when the clips of the Premier bubbling up were newsworthy and stunningly disqualifying for most political leaders.

If the result was the same after having ignored a lot of the Smith stuff for the entire campaign, the monday morning quarter backs would be astounded that the NDP held their fire.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I was thinking how hilarious it would be if a group of moderates organized and crossed the floor to the NDP Would only take 6 of em to turn the tables. Poetic Justice for the turncoat Danielle Smith.

 

[CBBarnett]

Given the ongoing population growth, particularly in the cities, are Calgary and Edmonton getting any new ridings before 2027?

 

[kiggupiggu]

Given the ongoing population growth, particularly in the cities, are Calgary and Edmonton getting any new ridings before 2027?

If Calgary and Edmonton both grow by 300,000 people from 2017-2027 and each riding is about 50,000 people. Then it would make sense for both cities to get several new ridings.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Wow 6 new ridings each? That would certainly flip the script.

 

[kiggupiggu]

Wow 6 new ridings each? That would certainly flip the script.

Not quite because you would also need to take into account the average riding going from 49000 to 58000. Not sure how to do the math off the top of my head.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Ah fair. Probably 5 for Calgary and 4 for Edmonton then

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ah fair. Probably 5 for Calgary and 4 for Edmonton then

That would be my estimate. It could be a difference maker a few years down the road.