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Alberta Provincial Politics

If an election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • UCP

    Votes: 4 8.0%
  • NDP

    Votes: 41 82.0%
  • Liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 3 6.0%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 2 4.0%

  • Total voters
    50
Things are not looking up for the good guys 😣 Every opinion poll since the debate shows a UCP lead.
My gut feeling is that the UCP will win this election, but it'll be close. As much of a downer as it could be for some, it still marks a big change in the Alberta political landscape. Whether one prefers the NDP or UCP, it's always better to have a close election rather than a usual landslides we've had so many times in the past. It'll hopefully keep the UCP in line, and also send a message. Calgarians might like fiscal conservatives, but they don't necessarily like social conservatives. These next few years are going to be interesting.
 
Smith has been signing contracts with raises for unions. The last raises for those unions were under the PCs after Redford and before Prentice.

I’m not sure your conclusion matches with reality.
Are the raises lower than what the NDP would have approved under $80 oil and 4% inflation?
 
It is really interesting. We’re so used to assuming an either equal in the ground effort or a superior Conservative effort. What I’ve seen is an unfocused and under volunteered UCP ground game and a very strategic and well resourced NDP ground game.

Now does that make a difference on election day? Historically a good local level campaign can close an 8% gap I remember learning decades ago. Will differential local campaigns lead to a lot of surprises?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
President of Mainstreet Research shows that in 7 Calgary ridings the undecided voters are leaning toward the NDP 7 to 1.

He also suggests that less than 1000 votes could be the difference between a 45-42 UCP win and a 45-42 NDP win.
The undecided vote going toward the NDP seems to match the most recent Abacus poll.

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This one is a nail biter… but I’m losing hope. Looks like the NDP only has a shot in exactly 44-46 districts, and a comfortable lead in only 29. One to three losses means we lose. Bleh.

Either way, heading out to vote because fuck neo-fascists! 🥳
 
In situations like this every vote counts :). Even if voters think it won't affect the outcome of the riding, every vote gets counted, and after the election many will be analyzing the numbers. If the UCP wins, which I suspect will be the case, tonight's numbers will also show that many of the Calgary ridings were close and it at least sends a message.
 
Literally in the wackos speech she was basically like “oh yeah and fuck Ottawa and this entire federation!” 🤣 She actually showed some grace and what I thought might be an incling of intellect up until that point. Silly me.

Honestly though, the result suuuucks but holy shit, the NDP taking 38 seats!!! Not the result I wanted, but actually sorta thrilled to see we have a real path to victory next time, which didn’t seem possible yesterday.

1280px-2023_Alberta_General_Election_Map.svg.png
 
Wowzers! Yeah! I can’t believe how close some of the ridings are, especially in Calgary! NDP leading by 30 and 7 in Glenmore and Acadia, respectively. UCP holding Calgary North and Northwest by 113 and 149, respectively. A lottt of districts well under a thousand difference, including East Lethbridge. There is a clear path to victory in 2027. We lost this battle, we’ll win the war.

Also of note, NDP has a secure victory (1500+ vote separation) in 27 districts at least. More than their entire caucus last election. It would be unbelievable if they had won, but I’m still in awe at this result.
 
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