darwink
Senior Member
Polling so far:
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Alberta Provincial Politics
- Thread starter Surrealplaces
- Start date
Interesting. The NDP is pretty close in some of the polls. The date show April 3, but I wonder if these polls were done on April 3, or just results that were released April 3? After yesterday's news about UCP member Mark Smith, I wonder if the NDP has closed the gap even more?
UrbanRED
Active Member
My vote was originally going to the UCP - but then all their candidates turned out to be nutjobs (white supremacists, sexists, homophobic, etc.). While I do believe the NDP had some missteps on the economy, I'll have to cast my vote that way simply because I don't want a government with a bunch of crazies. I wonder if that's the broader trend? The polls seem to be showing that...
darwink
Senior Member
Dates the polls were in the field at the bottom.
Stephen Ave
Active Member
You're not alone. I voted PCs in the past, and was going to vote UCP originally, but they've shown themselves to be nothing more than a reincarnation of the Wild rose Party. A bunch of out of date, extremist neanderthals.
I don't know how I missed those. Not enough caffeine today. Slowly but surely the UCP are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory lol.
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
While the UCP has had their missteps, so have the NDP. It's just that their missteps have not been exploited as much as the UCP's. It seems a certain element was on the lookout for far-right tendencies to equate to UCP policies. I don't believe what someone (s) may have said 5 years ago in a venue outside of government, has anything to do with the UCP party as a whole, and I am not going to judge them that way. The only thing I may criticize them for is not being thorough enough in their candidate vetting process. This election should be about:
1. Building pipelines
2. Bringing back the lost jobs from the oil & gas sector.
3. Attracting new investment and industry to Alberta
If anyone thinks the NDP or the UCP will be more successful in achieving those goals, then that is what your voting decision should be based on .... the future of the province! All of the other stuff that people are worked up about is just background noise.
1. Building pipelines
2. Bringing back the lost jobs from the oil & gas sector.
3. Attracting new investment and industry to Alberta
If anyone thinks the NDP or the UCP will be more successful in achieving those goals, then that is what your voting decision should be based on .... the future of the province! All of the other stuff that people are worked up about is just background noise.
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darwink
Senior Member
I don't think either party will be more or less successful in that regard, all depends on the world oil price. No matter which party is elected, TMX should be under construction again this summer, and Line 3 will be in service in the spring, barring unforeseen circumstances.
The style of investment that drove the boom - massive oil sands capital spends on new facilities - is largely over. This was foreseen all the way back in 2011-12 ish by CERI, when they forecast maintenance spending would overtake newcapital spending on the oil sands in the 2017-2019 period, which has only been accelerated by the Texas light boom of the last 4 years. Drilling will pick up as the storage glut is cleared by extra pipeline capacity and curtailment fades, but I doubt it will put a spring in the producers step over lets 2018-19 drilling levels.
I don't think we will ever see recovery of the lost jobs in oil and gas, as companies have learned to get along with less by outsourcing and automating. The attracting new investment and industry side, I see the corporate tax cut proposed and the tax credits proposed as different sides of the same coin, neither is better or worse.
It may seem fatalistic, but the provincial government can only do so much to dig the province out of a situation the provincial government didn't create. Alberta took on the oil price shock, and it was compounded by the transportation problem, but we can't fix the first, and the second is well on its way to being fixed already.
The style of investment that drove the boom - massive oil sands capital spends on new facilities - is largely over. This was foreseen all the way back in 2011-12 ish by CERI, when they forecast maintenance spending would overtake newcapital spending on the oil sands in the 2017-2019 period, which has only been accelerated by the Texas light boom of the last 4 years. Drilling will pick up as the storage glut is cleared by extra pipeline capacity and curtailment fades, but I doubt it will put a spring in the producers step over lets 2018-19 drilling levels.
I don't think we will ever see recovery of the lost jobs in oil and gas, as companies have learned to get along with less by outsourcing and automating. The attracting new investment and industry side, I see the corporate tax cut proposed and the tax credits proposed as different sides of the same coin, neither is better or worse.
It may seem fatalistic, but the provincial government can only do so much to dig the province out of a situation the provincial government didn't create. Alberta took on the oil price shock, and it was compounded by the transportation problem, but we can't fix the first, and the second is well on its way to being fixed already.
World price of oil and the oil production amount in the U.S. are making all the differences. At the end of the day we were booming and doing great once upon a time without Keystone and TMX - until the combo of world price dropping and the U.S. production increasing. My non-expert understanding is that the U.S. production increase has made them an exporter and thus the ability to low-ball us on price, and of course that has put the spotlight on pipelines. Nobody ever rushed these pipelines before, because the need wasn't as great.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
I'm with Darwink on this. I doubt that the outcome of the election will have any determining effect on pipelines or the overall oil and gas sector. Thus, I don't think these issues are really what is at stake in this election.
One thing that will be a major problem for the province economically is if we start divesting from education and health care in order to give tax breaks to the wealthy. The "meds and eds" are major economic drivers, not tax breaks for already wealthy people. That is the main reason why I'm voting NDP. I think their decision to continue to invest in medicine and education has had a significant positive impact on the economy of the province.
As for the "missteps" made by the UCP candidates, their hostility toward gays and lesbians behind closed doors is matched by their policies aimed at repealing protections for LGBTQ youth. Also, while you can always find gaffes by left-wing politicians, those gaffes are typically not related to the demonization of minority groups. If so-and-so from the left made some anti-oil and gas comment in their past, it is still not equivalent to calling women who have had abortions "murderers", comparing gays and lesbians to pedophiles and nazis, calling Muslims rapists, or lamenting the "replacement" of white people by non-white people. Those should be disqualifying views.
One thing that will be a major problem for the province economically is if we start divesting from education and health care in order to give tax breaks to the wealthy. The "meds and eds" are major economic drivers, not tax breaks for already wealthy people. That is the main reason why I'm voting NDP. I think their decision to continue to invest in medicine and education has had a significant positive impact on the economy of the province.
As for the "missteps" made by the UCP candidates, their hostility toward gays and lesbians behind closed doors is matched by their policies aimed at repealing protections for LGBTQ youth. Also, while you can always find gaffes by left-wing politicians, those gaffes are typically not related to the demonization of minority groups. If so-and-so from the left made some anti-oil and gas comment in their past, it is still not equivalent to calling women who have had abortions "murderers", comparing gays and lesbians to pedophiles and nazis, calling Muslims rapists, or lamenting the "replacement" of white people by non-white people. Those should be disqualifying views.
BKha
Active Member
Question regarding the carbon tax. Kennedy has said he will scrap the carbon tax, but if he does will we end up getting one from the federal government anyway?
darwink
Senior Member
Yes.
Atticus
Active Member
I'm not sure why Kenny is making such a big deal out of scrapping the carbon tax, we'll be getting one either way. I actually don't mind the tax, so long as it went toward greener energy projects, public transit etc... My understanding is it goes to general revenue though.
darwink
Senior Member
The way Canadian governments are set up, all revenue goes to general revenue. The Alberta tax goes back to mid and low income households, goes to energy efficiency Alberta, paying for fast tracking the coal phaseout, and paying for transit.
The federal tax is rebated mostly to households since there isn’t an income test for the federal rebate.
Important to remember the tax is applied to small emitters whereas large emitters under both models use a different system.
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