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Alberta Politics

UrbanWarrior

UrbanWarrior

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Never in m my life did I think I would see Albertans return to their senses, so I feel like we should probably have a politics thread.


Albertans are PISSED! 🤣

50341996111_ef5526d081_c.jpg

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...reid-1.5722449


The NDP has managed to hold on to 96% of their 2019 voters, while the UCP has lost 30% of its base to the NDP, Alberta Party, and Alberta Independence Party. Amazing 😁 This should start some good conversations. Given the centrist nature of our NPD (relative to all other NDP), does anyone think an NDP/Alberta Party coalition (not merger) to take down the UCP is possible next election? Of course it would be an uphill battle for the NDP to sweep the 3 CMAs, Banff, and the Alberta Party to take a couple urban seats... but it could be interesting if the NDP and UCP came within a few seats of each other and AP had the deciding vote.
 
The optimism about O&G was not misplaced at the time of the election. It just so happened that a year later, the bottom fell out of the market with the pandemic; we still don't have any additional pipelines to get more product to markets other than the U.S; and the federal government has increased the volume on the further 'greening' of Canada. Yes .. all things out of the control the UCP but they are the target of discontent because they are the ruling party.
 
JonnyCanuck said:
The optimism about O&G was not misplaced at the time of the election. It just so happened that a year later, the bottom fell out of the market with the pandemic; we still don't have any additional pipelines to get more product to markets other than the U.S; and the federal government has increased the volume on the further 'greening' of Canada. Yes .. all things out of the control the UCP but they are the target of discontent because they are the ruling party.
Click to expand...
I think you sorta missed the point: Kenney spent years before the election claiming there was something the Alberta government could do to accomplish pipelines; and that the regulatory/tax environment within Alberta was hurting the oil industry. In this he sold a bunch of people a bill of goods.

I think the above bill of goods is hurting Kenney on the right, who deflect and now see Ottawa as the enemy even more so than before and don't see Kenney shadow boxing with Ottawa enough.

I don't think the economy is actually what is driving the poor performance in the polls in Calgary though. It is the other bill of goods Kenney sold: that public services would be as good or better than before under a Kenney government.

In other political news: O'Toole says Energy East 'not on the table'
 
Quebec's oil needs are already entirely met by pipeline and the equivalent of just over one unit train a day. If the CAQ's oil consumption targets are met, they will be able to use only the pipeline.
 
UrbanWarrior said:
Never in m my life did I think I would see Albertans return to their senses, so I feel like we should probably have a politics thread.


Albertans are PISSED! 🤣

50341996111_ef5526d081_c.jpg

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...reid-1.5722449


The NDP has managed to hold on to 96% of their 2019 voters, while the UCP has lost 30% of its base to the NDP, Alberta Party, and Alberta Independence Party. Amazing 😁 This should start some good conversations. Given the centrist nature of our NPD (relative to all other NDP), does anyone think an NDP/Alberta Party coalition (not merger) to take down the UCP is possible next election? Of course it would be an uphill battle for the NDP to sweep the 3 CMAs, Banff, and the Alberta Party to take a couple urban seats... but it could be interesting if the NDP and UCP came within a few seats of each other and AP had the deciding vote.
Click to expand...

I would be concerned, but not particularly alarmed, if I were Kenney for a few reasons:

1) It's pretty clear that Kenney is implementing the most unpopular parts of his platform -- things like harder bargaining with the doctors -- early in their mandate. In the final year before the next election they will likely pivot to giving out goodies in marginal ridings and do what needs to be done to retain power.

2) The polls are closer than the last election result almost entirely because people that voted for UCP candidates now say they would vote for a minor party. That reflects a real feeling on the part of some voters, but there is a big difference between saying you support the Alberta Party abstractly (which has no real platform or leadership, just a good name) and actually voting for them once you find out their local candidate is a nobody, and their campaign is disorganized. If the NDP were at 45 and the UCP at 48, I would think that would concern Kenney more than seeing the NDP still sitting on the same support they had in the 2019 election.

3) I doubt that 7% Alberta Independence polling is former UCP supporters from swing ridings in suburban Calgary, it's probably mostly in ultra-conservative ridings that the UCP will win by 20% rather than 40% if there is a far right option. Alberta Independence will attract some of the more hard right fringe candidates to run for them rather than staying the UCP tent. That reduces the chances that some idiot candidate from a rural riding says something stupid that becomes a news story and costs votes in suburban Calgary.

Despite my pessimism on the NDP's chances in the short term, I do think that there is a long term trend towards centre-left politics in Alberta. This will be driven by immigration to the big cities, a declining white rural population, and a declining salience of oil&gas from the main economic driver to one of several. Colorado is the obvious comparison - it moved from solidly Republican in 2000 to a swing state in 2010 to solidly Democratic in 2020, driven by the same trends. I expect to see the NDP gaining seats in 2023 and having a good shot at government in 2027.
 
zagox said:
I would be concerned, but not particularly alarmed, if I were Kenney for a few reasons:

1) It's pretty clear that Kenney is implementing the most unpopular parts of his platform -- things like harder bargaining with the doctors -- early in their mandate. In the final year before the next election they will likely pivot to giving out goodies in marginal ridings and do what needs to be done to retain power.

2) The polls are closer than the last election result almost entirely because people that voted for UCP candidates now say they would vote for a minor party. That reflects a real feeling on the part of some voters, but there is a big difference between saying you support the Alberta Party abstractly (which has no real platform or leadership, just a good name) and actually voting for them once you find out their local candidate is a nobody, and their campaign is disorganized. If the NDP were at 45 and the UCP at 48, I would think that would concern Kenney more than seeing the NDP still sitting on the same support they had in the 2019 election.

3) I doubt that 7% Alberta Independence polling is former UCP supporters from swing ridings in suburban Calgary, it's probably mostly in ultra-conservative ridings that the UCP will win by 20% rather than 40% if there is a far right option. Alberta Independence will attract some of the more hard right fringe candidates to run for them rather than staying the UCP tent. That reduces the chances that some idiot candidate from a rural riding says something stupid that becomes a news story and costs votes in suburban Calgary.

Despite my pessimism on the NDP's chances in the short term, I do think that there is a long term trend towards centre-left politics in Alberta. This will be driven by immigration to the big cities, a declining white rural population, and a declining salience of oil&gas from the main economic driver to one of several. Colorado is the obvious comparison - it moved from solidly Republican in 2000 to a swing state in 2010 to solidly Democratic in 2020, driven by the same trends. I expect to see the NDP gaining seats in 2023 and having a good shot at government in 2027.
Click to expand...
Really good points. I also think the Alberta NDP is still a big unknown for a lot of voters especially in regards to the economy. The NDP needs to do more than ride peoples dislike of Kenney and his policies if they want to broaden their base and win in 2023. But like you said, trends indicate a more centre-left future. Changing demographics are going to play another big role...It's going to be increasingly difficult for the UCP to appeal to the emotions of the NEP/ Lougheed era when more and more voters weren't even alive to experience it.
 
zagox said:
Despite my pessimism on the NDP's chances in the short term, I do think that there is a long term trend towards centre-left politics in Alberta. This will be driven by immigration to the big cities, a declining white rural population, and a declining salience of oil&gas from the main economic driver to one of several. Colorado is the obvious comparison - it moved from solidly Republican in 2000 to a swing state in 2010 to solidly Democratic in 2020, driven by the same trends. I expect to see the NDP gaining seats in 2023 and having a good shot at government in 2027.
Click to expand...

I agree. There's a political ticking time bomb in this province for Conservatives, which is that two large million+ cities control about 50% of the seats in the legislature, and that number will grow as the population becomes more urban. I'm not sure large cities have anywhere near that level of clout in any other province. The Conservatives are going to have an increasingly hard time bridging the urban-rural divide. The WRP is a symptom of this. Tact too far to the centre to appeal to urban professionals in Calgary, and get a revolt from yellow-vest types in the rural areas. Move to far to the right, and lose Calgary to a progressive party. The 2015 election demonstrates how a strong rural protest party can take enough votes the suburbs and smaller cities to split the right and give the NDP a victory.
 
Doctors are leaving small towns, and the government wants to offload public land, that's a shot right at Kenny's own base. The UCP are imploding under their own ineptitude and the polls are starting to reflect that.
 
The #betteroffwithrachel hashtag has been the number 1 trending hashtag for Calgary and all of Alberta for nearly two days now. People are pissed at this Kenny f*ckwit.
 
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