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Alberta Provincial Politics

If an election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • UCP

    Votes: 9 12.9%

  • NDP

    Votes: 51 72.9%

  • Liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 5 7.1%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 5 7.1%
  • Total voters
    70
It works both ways though. People think the UCP is better for the economy regardless of the facts on the ground, and people think the NDP is better for healthcare even though we're projected to spend an additional 8 billion in half a decade. Social services spending, spending in education, have all shot up in the province even though most still argue the UCP is killing education and healthcare.

1771358128288.png
 
$22B in 2019 is worth about $27B in 2025. Population growth of about 15.3% over that span bumps that to about 30.1B. So there's been a negligible change in per capita spending.

We do know that hundreds of millions have gone to things like useless tylenol, cancelled lab contracts, and other corruption/idealogical stupidity under the UCP's watch, so I think there's a strong argument that spending on actual patients has decreased.


Also worth noting that baby boomers were aged ~55-73 in 2019. They're now 61-79. Which means a subtle but significant change in healthcare resource utilization, and we should expect to pay more to achieve the same level of service:

pone.0251877.g001.jpg


https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8133481/

edit: for anyone else curious like I was about the high rate of hospital admission for 30 year olds, it looks like the reason is childbirth
 
Last edited:
darwink said:
Alberta's population 2024 (grey and green)
View attachment 715995
2014: (blue and green)
View attachment 715996
Click to expand...

What are the dotted lines?

This shows in 2014 65 year olds were about 0.4% of the population and decreased steadily by year; upper peak aged 50-60. 0.2% age 75.
In 2024 65 year olds were about 0.6% and decreased steadily by year; upper peak aged 60-70. 0.2% age 80.
 
lemongrab said:
$22B in 2019 is worth about $27B in 2025. Population growth of about 15.3% over that span bumps that to about 30.1B. So there's been a negligible change in per capita spending.

We do know that hundreds of millions have gone to things like useless tylenol, cancelled lab contracts, and other corruption/idealogical stupidity under the UCP's watch, so I think there's a strong argument that spending on actual patients has decreased.


Also worth noting that baby boomers were aged ~55-73 in 2019. They're now 61-79. Which means a subtle but significant change in healthcare resource utilization, and we should expect to pay more to achieve the same level of service:

pone.0251877.g001.jpg


https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8133481/

edit: for anyone else curious like I was about the high rate of hospital admission for 30 year olds, it looks like the reason is childbirth
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to say the UCP is spending way more on healthcare than a hypothetical NDP government. The reality is just that most of our budget is taken up by pretty non-discretionary items. If Notley won in 2023, health spending wouldn't be drastically higher and the UCP being elected didn't result in a prioritization of O&G above all social services either.

There's broader reforms that's needed. We're spending a lot in raw dollars, in % of GDP, yet we're getting less doctors, less beds and less nurses. That points to issues with system design, and maybe it's time we stop holding our healthcare system as a sacred cow and see how others are getting more for their money. Australia, probably our most comparable country, similar population, English speaking, natural resource based economy, large land mass, etc. is better than us on almost every metric, spending about the same as us.

1771368879130.png



 
trtcttc said:
It works both ways though. People think the UCP is better for the economy regardless of the facts on the ground, and people think the NDP is better for healthcare even though we're projected to spend an additional 8 billion in half a decade. Social services spending, spending in education, have all shot up in the province even though most still argue the UCP is killing education and healthcare.

View attachment 715981
Click to expand...

An increase in spending on Education after record population growth means nothing. Alberta has the lowest per student public education funding in the country. And healthcare spending has been wasted on unnecessary restructuring with an intent to make public healthcare purposely less efficient to promote private options. Look at outcomes. Lowest vaccination rates. Return of measles. People dying in ER's. Mass confusion and waste and grift going to UCP donors (corruptcare).
 
lemongrab said:
What are the dotted lines?

This shows in 2014 65 year olds were about 0.4% of the population and decreased steadily by year; upper peak aged 50-60. 0.2% age 75.
In 2024 65 year olds were about 0.6% and decreased steadily by year; upper peak aged 60-70. 0.2% age 80.
Click to expand...
forward projections by 25 or so years iirc.
 
O-tac said:
An increase in spending on Education after record population growth means nothing. Alberta has the lowest per student public education funding in the country. And healthcare spending has been wasted on unnecessary restructuring with an intent to make public healthcare purposely less efficient to promote private options. Look at outcomes. Lowest vaccination rates. Return of measles. People dying in ER's. Mass confusion and waste and grift going to UCP donors (corruptcare).
Click to expand...
If you want to look at outcome, we consistently rank highest or second highest in global standardized tests in Canada. Same with healthcare, feel free to look at actual data and outcomes.

Acute care dashboard | CIHI

A dashboard of Acute Inpatient Care indicators. The overview is provided down to the facility level.
www.cihi.ca www.cihi.ca
 
trtcttc said:
If you want to look at outcome, we consistently rank highest or second highest in global standardized tests in Canada. Same with healthcare, feel free to look at actual data and outcomes.

Acute care dashboard | CIHI

A dashboard of Acute Inpatient Care indicators. The overview is provided down to the facility level.
www.cihi.ca www.cihi.ca
Click to expand...

Too bad recent data is not being openly reported. Most recent education standardized testing was catastrophically bad and so Nicolaidas and the UCP hid it. Just like they tried to hide their CPP questionnaire results that found 63% of Albertans wanted nothing to do with their Alberta Pension Plan. As for Healthcare stats, it's kinda hard to measure when they stop collecting and reporting data on infectious diseases like Measles.

Circling back to education, we WERE ranked highest. That is steadily decreasing. And the most shameful part is the UCP's utter contempt for and neglect of students who need education assistants and aid. Not to mention their attacks on the disabled community as a whole. My son's elementary school only has a dedicated full time EA for one severely disabled student. Getting SLP and OT help is next to impossible without a prolonged fight. The underfunding of public systems is a slow moving snowball that will absolutely show worse results in time. And when it does, the UCP will use those figures to justify further privatization even though they engineered the entire crisis to begin with.
 
O-tac said:
Too bad recent data is not being openly reported. Most recent education standardized testing was catastrophically bad and so Nicolaidas and the UCP hid it. Just like they tried to hide their CPP questionnaire results that found 63% of Albertans wanted nothing to do with their Alberta Pension Plan. As for Healthcare stats, it's kinda hard to measure when they stop collecting and reporting data on infectious diseases like Measles.

Circling back to education, we WERE ranked highest. That is steadily decreasing. And the most shameful part is the UCP's utter contempt for and neglect of students who need education assistants and aid. Not to mention their attacks on the disabled community as a whole. My son's elementary school only has a dedicated full time EA for one severely disabled student. Getting SLP and OT help is next to impossible without a prolonged fight. The underfunding of public systems is a slow moving snowball that will absolutely show worse results in time. And when it does, the UCP will use those figures to justify further privatization even though they engineered the entire crisis to begin with.
Click to expand...
Where is anyone hiding standardized testing results? PISA is an OECD study and the last one was in 2022, where we are indeed ranked one of the top provinces. "Volante added that Canada's PISA scores may not be indicative of the whole country, as some provinces — notably Alberta, B.C., Ontario and Quebec — often score higher than the national average."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cana...earning-match-science-reading-study-1.7049681

Here is the PAT results up to 2025. https://www.alberta.ca/system/files...es/ed-pat-multiyear-province-report-table.pdf

We are collecting and reporting data on measles. There's actually an alert out the other day on measles exposure. You can quibble with the provincial response, especially on vaccines, but those assertions that things are being hidden are simply not true.

So where should we cut? Or should we double our debt like BC has done and saddle the very children being educated with debt servicing cost that costs more than their education? I think a question needs to be asked about classroom complexity and why it has steadily increased in the last decade despite higher average family incomes and education. Why does every other kid need an $80,000 full time staff member to go to school? Those things should absolutely require significant justification. The government should provide a basic standard of education that is inclusive, but if every parents wants specialized care for their children, they should have to pay for it.
1771443413756.png
 
darwink said:
Alberta's taxes are too low and in good years non-renewable resource revenues pays the difference. In bad years there are big deficits.

Below shows how much more the province would have to spend or save if Alberta adopted the taxation system of other provinces.
View attachment 716265
Click to expand...
If oil prices remain low for a long time, a sales tax will have to be in the conversation. I don't agree with the UCP corporate tax cuts. I'm surprised the "Other" makes up such a significant portion. Is there a breakdown of what that is for some big provinces like BC/ON?
 
darwink said:
Alberta's taxes are too low and in good years non-renewable resource revenues pays the difference. In bad years there are big deficits.

Below shows how much more the province would have to spend or save if Alberta adopted the taxation system of other provinces.
View attachment 716265
Click to expand...
This has always been the key point on every debate going back forever in this province. Policy choices and per capita funding levels vary over time, sometimes we fund more than average sometimes less but generally drift fairly close to others in the long-run. However the giant different between AB and others is the tax policy where we wildly under-tax relying on resources instead.

If all non-renewable resource royalties was put away or invested in income generating assets (e.g. capital infrastructure improvement that generate economic spin-offs + heritage fund etc.) and taxes were configured to be able to pay for operational and normal day-to-day expenses as they are required to do in other provinces without the good luck to have ginormous resource reserves, Alberta would be among the wealthiest jurisdictions in the world with hundreds of billions in a wealth fund by now.

The policy choice to not charge Albertans reasonably via taxes for the services they need distorted all policy debate for generations. Our collective blindness limits any ability to find sustainable solutions to fiscal whipsaws - people and politicians can only stomach cuts or deficits, despite being able to solve the problem at any time the past 75 years through modest tax increases that would make us similar to every other jurisdiction anywhere. The most silly part is we could still be the lowest tax jurisdiction despite raising taxes a lot.

Raising taxes is the simple answer to Alberta's never-ending fiscal chaos - always have been. Save 100% of the non-renewable revenue until the saving funds are large enough to live off the interest - that's the only real answer to not "saddle the future generations with debt". Of course, living within your means has never been a big priority in Alberta, beyond the slogan used by politicians to cut program spending.
 
trtcttc said:
Why does every other kid need an $80,000 full time staff member to go to school? Those things should absolutely require significant justification. The government should provide a basic standard of education that is inclusive, but if every parents wants specialized care for their children, they should have to pay for it.
View attachment 716229
Click to expand...
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome".

Kids probably are over-coded for learning disabilities sinply because coding attracts funding.

I wonder if integration has gone too far.
CBBarnett said:
This has always been the key point on every debate going back forever in this province. Policy choices and per capita funding levels vary over time, sometimes we fund more than average sometimes less but generally drift fairly close to others in the long-run. However the giant different between AB and others is the tax policy where we wildly under-tax relying on resources instead.

If all non-renewable resource royalties was put away or invested in income generating assets (e.g. capital infrastructure improvement that generate economic spin-offs + heritage fund etc.) and taxes were configured to be able to pay for operational and normal day-to-day expenses as they are required to do in other provinces without the good luck to have ginormous resource reserves, Alberta would be among the wealthiest jurisdictions in the world with hundreds of billions in a wealth fund by now.

The policy choice to not charge Albertans reasonably via taxes for the services they need distorted all policy debate for generations. Our collective blindness limits any ability to find sustainable solutions to fiscal whipsaws - people and politicians can only stomach cuts or deficits, despite being able to solve the problem at any time the past 75 years through modest tax increases that would make us similar to every other jurisdiction anywhere. The most silly part is we could still be the lowest tax jurisdiction despite raising taxes a lot.

Raising taxes is the simple answer to Alberta's never-ending fiscal chaos - always have been. Save 100% of the non-renewable revenue until the saving funds are large enough to live off the interest - that's the only real answer to not "saddle the future generations with debt". Of course, living within your means has never been a big priority in Alberta, beyond the slogan used by politicians to cut program spending.
Click to expand...
Has raising taxes worked anywhere in Canada? Governments simply raise spending and the deficits continue to grow. What is really needed is Right to Work legislation covering all public sector workers and some form of provincial consitution that precludes borrowing for anything other than the GAPP definition of physical capital (ie. no social capital, human capital, investing in ourselves). This would force prioritization
 
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