darwink
Senior Member
A dive on leave/stay and what motivates people. https://angusreid.org/alberta-unity-separation-smith-carney-prosperity/
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Alberta Provincial Politics
- Thread starter Surrealplaces
- Start date
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
Wish there was an urban/rural breakdown.
darwink
Senior Member
O-tac
Senior Member
Saw a petition signing table near Costco at Heritage Gate. No one was stopping.
InfrastructureEnthusiast
Active Member
Interesting breakdown, notable that among people leaning to stay, the arguments of the feds not being square with the province still hold a lot of weight.
Seems to confirm my suspicions that this is more protest vote than secession attempt.
Makes sense politically, just following in Quebec's footsteps after all.
Step 1: Threaten to leave country
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit!
(Aka get whatever you want from the feds)
Regular voting hasn't been a useful outlet for frustrations, and I don't get the sense that attitudes in Ottawa are ever going to change, too much historical baggage and bad habits at play.
I think a bit of a reset would help everyone in Canada, and not just a new government, but a new capital.
Not Calgary though..
To recognize the shift of trade and economic importance from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and also as a genuine show of the governments commitment to reconciliation, I think the best place would be Winnipeg.
Let those fevered dreams of a Churchill port die and get on with a better economic development project!
O-tac
Senior Member
Seems like the worst possible time this province could choose to play this stupid brinksmanship game when Trump wants us as a resource colony. Also, beware viewing this as a mere protest vote for leverage, this provides pretext for annexation. Ask Ukraine.
darwink
Senior Member
I have heard from someone who would know: the separatists have their signatures, and have enough seats on the UCP board to force a leadership review (like they did with Kenney)
The referendum will be scheduled for the fall.
The referendum will be scheduled for the fall.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
I kind of lost track of the political beats and law changes here, could someone ELI5 why the stay in Canada petition is ignored and the separatist one is allowed?
lemongrab
Active Member
IIRC a 'successful' petition basically gets referred to the gov't to decide between a few potential courses of action. Of course the UCP keeps messing around with the rules so what's currently on the website may not apply to the FC petition, but I think it was similar.
I think we're stuck on stage 3 as the spring sitting doesn't start until Feb 24 (though google tells me it typically would have started on the 2nd Tuesday in Feb which was yesterday), so within 15 days of then we should see something.
https://www.elections.ab.ca/recall-initiative/initiative/initiative-process/
But they'll probably just table a report saying: "there's another petition for the opposite right now...we should just wait and see how that plays out..." and then never speak of the FC initiative again.
darwink
Senior Member
They expressed as such in comments to the media, that they are functionally equivalent.
InfrastructureEnthusiast
Active Member
Lol, if the US annexes any part of Canada it's going to look a lot more like VZ than Ukraine..
Just look at how close Ottawa is to Fort Drum
That's not a very long helicopter ride.. Just another reason the Capitol should be moved to a more geographically secure location, like Winnipeg!
And IMO this is the perfect time to be playing brinkmanship, its a win win for the people of Alberta.
For the record, I still think it would be incredibly foolish to break up the country, being one of three on earth with access to multiple oceans.
But if the consolation prize is getting better pay, lower taxes and freedom of movement to places without six months of winter, I think many Albertans would get over the breakup quicker than they think.
Ottawa just needs to remember who holds the cards these days. It's their game to lose...
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MichaelS
Senior Member
I was told by someone that the Forever Canada petition wasn't a constitutional question, as indicated by a court and was rather more symbolic than actionable. However, the current petition circulating will be a more formal constitutional question that will be actionable if there is a majority yes vote.
No idea how accurate this is, but seemed like a reasonable answer when I asked "don't we already have a petition approved a separatist can just vote no on?"
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
I think they're waiting on the other one (separatist) to come in before seeing if they had to do anything with the first one (Forever Canada). Because you get the petition doesn't guarantee a referendum:
Once certified, Elections Alberta will submit a copy of the policy proposal (question) to the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.
From there, the Assembly can call a vote on the question and if passed, then there's no need for a referendum. They can call a referendum exclusively or attach a referendum to an election.
Forever Canada's question: "Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?"
Separatist's question: "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?"
In my opinion, and I don't know this for sure, but both questions do not need to be asked in a referendum. As watchers of these things know the question really matters in these things. It must be clearly understood and be a simple yes/no.
There is no room for the Premier, MLAs, MPs, Business leaders or even City Councillors to be ambivalent on the question. Personally, I think the referendum should not be attached to an election, the result could render that election moot. If @darwink is correct and they have the signatures and UCP board control, things could get very messy legislatively in the province in the lead up to any referendum. I wonder about the timeline, they could drag their feet and try to wait out a pipeline proposal before Canada Day. If a pipeline comes to be, I think they might just call a vote in the leg.
The good thing about this, the arguments to leave are just as complicated to explain as the arguments to stay. Brexit was simple, leave the EU, Britian was already its own sovereign state. I think even to a simple person leaving Canada and creating your own country would sound daunting but I'm not in that group.
Also, as has been stated by indigenous people, Alberta as a whole cannot leave Canada. Someone needs to come out and call out what this really is a rural/suburban and urban divide. They might not like equalization and how Alberta is an equalization loser to other provinces but in the exact same way urban areas in this province are equalization losers to rural/suburban areas.
One final point, the province whining about equalization in their latest warnings about a deficit budget is quite rich considering they could do what those provinces do that get equalization, lower your fiscal capacity. Keep playing separation games and you're sure to see your economic performance drop.
O-tac
Senior Member
No we would not. Don't mistake your own view for what over 70% of Albertans want. Zero taxation is a lie. "Negotiation" is a lie. This is straight up BULLSHIT! Ask anyone from the UK how their 'protest' Brexit vote went. Sorry, I don't want private healthcare, endless school shootings, a fascist government and even less provincial autonomy than we have now. And FTR the US doesn't allow the same level of provincial independence that we do to their states for resources. Our oil revenues would be spread evenly across the country so we would get even less. Assuming we are even granted statehood and not merely territory status like Puerto Rico.
Here's some reading for anyone considering such nonsense:
O-tac
Senior Member
Especially considering it just came to light that the UCP is offering $900 million to the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. Meanwhile people dying in ER's and parents of kids in overcrowded and underfunded classrooms keep being told their is no room in the budget for such frivolous expenses. We should pull ourselves up by the bootstraps while the O&G lobby gets showered in taxpayer money.