Calgary & Alberta Economy

[DougB]

too small. there is an existing pipeline to Montreal where larger ships can be loaded/unloaded. It currently supplies Quebec City with shuttle tankers. Used to handle imports for Ontario. Maybe it could do more.

Line 9 was built in the 70s to ship AB oil from Sarnia to Montreal. In the 90s, it was reversed to import oil from Montreal to Sarnia. It was reverse reversed in 2015 back to. its original flow direction.

I'm unsure of the hurdles to expanding Line 9 capacity, constructing export facilities in Montreal and tanker constraints on the St. Lawrence. If no company has proposed such a project, it likley doesn't make sense. My guess is that exporting through the Gulf Coast is more competitive.

 

[darwink]

constructing export facilities in Montreal

they already exist

 

[DougB]

they already exist

Tank farms and berths? What size of tankers?

 

[Chowda7]

Rural communities set to gain high-speed internet across central Alberta

The Governments of Alberta and Canada announced today plans to expand high-speed internet to more communities ...

rdnewsnow.com

 

[darwink]

Tank farms and berths? What size of tankers?

As part of the large refinery and product terminal complex

One of the many berths:

another:

Aframax tankers can go to Montreal.

 

[DougB]

View attachment 711979
As part of the large refinery and product terminal complex
View attachment 711980
One of the many berths:
View attachment 711981
another:
View attachment 711982

Aframax tankers can go to Montreal.

So might be feasible but could it compete with shipping out of the Gulf Coast?

 

[darwink]

So might be feasible but could it compete with shipping out of the Gulf Coast?

would need to raise capacity to Sarnia first I think, then could likely raise Line 9 capacity. Maybe 100k barrels a day without too much effort.

300k with more effort and batching.

 

[DougB]

would need to raise capacity to Sarnia first I think, then could likely raise Line 9 capacity. Maybe 100k barrels a day without too much effort.

300k with more effort and batching.

The Gulf Coast is still closer and has better infrastructure

 

[Chowda7]

Canada resumes beef exports to China, cattle supply remains low

Canada is resuming beef exports to China after a years-long ban that shut down a major overseas market, a move some Alberta producers say comes at a critical time as national cattle supplies remain low and beef prices stay high.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[darwink]

The Gulf Coast is still closer and has better infrastructure

Yeah. The largest free market hub in the world.

Going over the top of Ontario would be about sovereignty imo - the government would be replacing the American route to supply Ontario and Quebec. Enabling the retirement of Line 5 and avoiding the straits of Mackinac replacement. Potentially there’d be enough capacity to provide some strategic optionality too - shipping overseas, Newfoundland or New Brunswick.

Wouldnt be an alternative to a big west coast line. Just better for the country in general so we can keep the country moving even if the USA makes some catastrophic decisions.

 

[CBBarnett]

Yeah. The largest free market hub in the world.

Going over the top of Ontario would be about sovereignty imo - the government would be replacing the American route to supply Ontario and Quebec. Enabling the retirement of Line 5 and avoiding the straits of Mackinac replacement. Potentially there’d be enough capacity to provide some strategic optionality too - shipping overseas, Newfoundland or New Brunswick.

Wouldnt be an alternative to a big west coast line. Just better for the country in general so we can keep the country moving even if the USA makes some catastrophic decisions.

This is the same rationale as the original TransCanada gas pipeline in the 1950s, where there was debate between an easier, seemingly more economic American route or an all-Canadian one through Northern Ontario. National security and maintain control was the central element of the debate.

Ironically, to get that 1950s era project done it took some unpopular legislative practices to push the approvals through by the federal Liberals (history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme). It's kind of strange that supporting two separate controversial pipeline projects 75 years apart both helped bring down a liberal majority government!

Prior to the 1950s, of course it was the transcontinental railways, projects were a total mess and "uneconomic" except it's something that just kind of needed to happen to create a stable country. Each project project always underestimated how complicated, expensive and uneconomic infrastructure is to build for 1,000km of Canadian Shield in Northern Ontario.

Similar to these past examples, "most economic" isn't the name of the game right now - reducing interdependence and increasing sovereign control is much higher rated. Will result in some interesting projects at ginormous costs but with perhaps nation-defining long-run benefits too.