Calgary & Alberta Economy

[Surrealplaces]

That was my gut take too, they couldn't afford to go without AB oil until VZ increased production, but now I'm not sure that the case..

The US has been a net exporter of oil for a few years now, with the surplus being a bit over half of what they get from Canada.

I'm not an industry expert on this, but seems like it'd be easier for the US to import 4mbpd from someone else than it'd be for Canada to sell the same to someone else, without more coastal pipes in place.

My references, such as they are:

You are correct, the US does produce enough oil for themselves, but the two key factors would be they that don't have enough refinery capacity to refine their type of crude, and the other factor being it would cost Americans more as they wouldn't get the discount they are getting from us. The biggest issue would be the refining capacity for light crude, because currently much of their refining capacity is for heavy crude. They could get the heavy crude from Venezuela, but it would be time and a lot of money to get Venezuela up to a point of producing ~5 Million barrels a day (one million barrels for them, and 4 million barrels for the US).

The US could get around using us, but it would take time and money, and ultimately be more expensive. Just like we could eventually get around selling to the US, but it would take time and money as well.

 

[darwink]

it would cost Americans more as they wouldn't get the discount they are getting from us.

This is a bit of a misnomer - the discount exists in Alberta but doesn’t exist elsewhere in the same way. When enough oil can ship to where consumers want it, the local price is set according to delivery costs market dynamics. The refiner at the gulf coast isn’t ‘saving’ money. Nor is refiner in the Midwest. Those with pipeline capacity and product can attempt to arbitrage between markets to make money but when there is enough capacity those prices will always reconverge unless monopoly power is being exercised.

a cool chart by our favourite energy economist Andrew Leach, breaking out various components of the valuation.

They could get the heavy crude from Venezuela

Apparently what they’re producing now has a specific gravity even lower than WCS/Maya (22) at around 12.

They’d have to rebuild their partial upgrading capacity to even somewhat compete again beyond the refurb possibility of 750k-1mm barrels a day.

Who will make that bet?

 

[trtcttc]

And isn’t one of the reasons heavy crude is good is that it can also make a lot of chemicals and petroleum products?

 

[InfrastructureEnthusiast]

They’d have to rebuild their partial upgrading capacity to even somewhat compete again beyond the refurb possibility of 750k-1mm barrels a day.

Who will make that bet?

It would be extremely funny if some of the AB oil industry formed a US shell (heh) corporation to use their heavy oil expertise to bid on the repair and upgrade work.

Even if AB oil gets cut off, AB can still get a win

And isn’t one of the reasons heavy crude is good is that it can also make a lot of chemicals and petroleum products?

You mean things like "energetic materials" and rocket fuel for Canada's ICBM program climate research satellites?

I like where you're going with this...

 

[Chowda7]

Carney likely to visit India in early March as Canada trade pivot intensifies, envoy says

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely visit India the first week of March and sign deals on uranium, energy, minerals and artificial intelligence, Dinesh Patnaik, India’s High Commissioner to Canada said in an interview.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[darwink]

You mean things like "energetic materials" and rocket fuel for Canada's ICBM program climate research satellites?

Canada is finally going for sovereign launch. It is much less expensive to do these days, though still more expensive than just contracting others.

Lots of Nova Scotia is at or south of Baikonur (the Russian heavy lift spaceport), a perfectly adequate if not optimal launch latitude.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Canada is finally going for sovereign launch. It is much less expensive to do these days, though still more expensive than just contracting others.

Lots of Nova Scotia is at or south of Baikonur (the Russian heavy lift spaceport), a perfectly adequate if not optimal launch latitude.

And there are multiple government owned airfields and air force bases. The Carney Space Centre has a nice ring to it, now that's a legacy.

 

[Chowda7]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mark-carney-gst-affordability-measures-9.7060907