Alberta Provincial Politics

[trtcttc]

Is the referendum the same time as the election? I think they want the referendum to proceed as quickly as possible, to get it done well before the election so it doesn't affect the Calgary votes.

And the Notwithstanding clause only applies to certain sections of the charter, it is not a blanket override of all federal and provincial laws.

 

[lemongrab]

I think the UCP has miscalculated. By allowing the separatists to contravene their own petition rules and proceed in spite of the court review they are basically declaring themselves to be a separatist party. Therefore whether or not there's a petition to separate next election, the UCP itself will become the separatist ballot question. Hopefully that means a landslide defeat.

This requires voters to be aware of all this and connect these dots themselves. While I'm sure there are still some UCP voters ripe for conversion, I suspect most are still blissfully ignorant or outright supportive of everything the UCP has done.

 

[darwink]

The referendum itself was ruled illegal by the courts this morning due to offending Section 35 (Treaty Rights).

It will go to the Supreme Court. 2 year delay at best.

 

[DougB]

The referendum itself was ruled illegal by the courts this morning due to offending Section 35 (Treaty Rights).

It will go to the Supreme Court. 2 year delay at best.

Is that a gift to the UCP? It's separatist faction can direct its ire to the Courts.

 

[Surrealplaces]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/rebecca-schulz-ucp-resignation-9.7031236

"The first thing I thought when I saw it was: is this another sign of an early election call?" wondered Duane Bratt, political scientist with Mount Royal University.

"There are a number of referendums, some of them contentious, in 2026. But there has been growing speculation that we will have an early provincial election. That's normally when we see a reset ... people deciding not to run again. Is that what we're seeing here?"

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Alberta: UCP & NDP Locked in Tight Race

Toronto, ON (January 22, 2026) – A new Liaison Strategies survey finds Alberta’s two main parties in a competitive contest, with the United Conservative Party (UCP) holding a narrow edge over the Alberta NDP. If a provincial election were held today, 46% of voters would support the UCP Party...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

“The topline numbers show a close race between the two main parties with enough voters undecided that it's anyone's game,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “Regionally, we are seeing the NDP ahead in Edmonton, while the UCP lead outside major centres. In Calgary the UCP lead by 5 points.”

The path to victory remains distinctly different for both major parties. The NDP continues to dominate Edmonton with 60% support compared to the UCP’s 29%. Conversely, the UCP holds a lead in the Rest of Alberta (54% to 36%).

The critical battleground of Calgary shows a competitive landscape, with the UCP leading at 48% and the NDP trailing at 43%. Demographically, younger voters (ages 18-34) favour the NDP (47%), while those aged 65 and older strongly support the UCP (54%).

• Healthcare: Naheed Nenshi (NDP) leads with 39% trust, while Danielle Smith (UCP) sits at 34%.
• Education: Nenshi also leads on education at 39% trust compared to Smith’s 33%.
• The Economy: Danielle Smith holds the advantage with 39% trust over Nenshi’s 34%.

 

[Mountain Man]

Hopefully the Tory Party of Alberta can eat into the UCP base!

 

[trtcttc]

Bell: Premier Danielle Smith, I was an emergency room patient — they need your help

Danielle Smith vows to fix Alberta health care, Postmedia columnist Rick Bell ends up in a Calgary emergency room and asks premier for help

calgaryherald.com

Healthcare might be a winning issue, especially if the re-org boondoggle yields little results. Then the NDP have an easy attack of x millions spent not on doctors, or nurses but re-org that only increased wait times.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Alberta: UCP & NDP Locked in Tight Race

Toronto, ON (January 22, 2026) – A new Liaison Strategies survey finds Alberta’s two main parties in a competitive contest, with the United Conservative Party (UCP) holding a narrow edge over the Alberta NDP. If a provincial election were held today, 46% of voters would support the UCP Party...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

The path to victory remains distinctly different for both major parties. The NDP continues to dominate Edmonton with 60% support compared to the UCP’s 29%. Conversely, the UCP holds a lead in the Rest of Alberta (54% to 36%).

I think the path to victory is actually the same for both parties, it's Calgary no matter how they slice it.

The critical battleground of Calgary shows a competitive landscape, with the UCP leading at 48% and the NDP trailing at 43%. Demographically, younger voters (ages 18-34) favour the NDP (47%), while those aged 65 and older strongly support the UCP (54%).

For Calgary, one more year of seniors passing away, and approximately 10,000 people turning 18 and eligible to vote. This is going to be close.

The best part is the election buzz hasn't even really kick in. as we get closer we'll be hearing a lot from Nenshi.

 

[O-tac]

It is insane that the UCP hasn’t lost more support. With recent threats from the US and the impending separatist petition / referendum I hope more people pull their heads out of their unthinking asses and turn out to get rid of Smith once and for all.

 

[Surrealplaces]

It is insane that the UCP hasn’t lost more support. With recent threats from the US and the impending separatist petition / referendum I hope more people pull their heads out of their unthinking asses and turn out to get rid of Smith once and for all.

The problem, at least in Calgary is so many boomers can't imagine themselves voting for the NDP. It's still looked at as a heavily left wing Edmonton party, but at least with Nenshi maybe they will change enough for the NDP to eek out a victory.

 

[MichaelS]

I am not entirely convinced Nenshi will be seen as a positive to Calgary voters.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I am not entirely convinced Nenshi will be seen as a positive to Calgary voters.

I think those who didn't like him previously are the same people who have always voted UPC. I'm hoping some of the people who maybe didn't like him, but didn't lose sleep over him, will pick him because they like Smith less. Calgary was quite close in a lot of ridings, and maybe those middle of the road voters will be the difference.