News   Apr 03, 2020
Pastel Morning
 6.9K     1 
News   Apr 02, 2020
A Message to Our Readers
 8.5K     5 
News   Apr 02, 2020
Soon to be Gone
 5K     0 

Calgary & Alberta Economy

Well the new year sure got off to an exiting start...

While the weekend's flawless demonstration of aerial blitzkrieg was certainly impressive, there are some pretty stark implications for Canada and Alberta in particular that could result from the VZ takeover.

Article elaborates better than I could, I'll just say the Carney crew better get busy laying some pipe!

nationalpost.com

Adam Pankratz: Venezuelan oil could put Canada out of business

If sabotage of the energy industry doesn't end now, we face impoverishment
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com
 
InfrastructureEnthusiast said:
Well the new year sure got off to an exiting start...

While the weekend's flawless demonstration of aerial blitzkrieg was certainly impressive, there are some pretty stark implications for Canada and Alberta in particular that could result from the VZ takeover.

Article elaborates better than I could, I'll just say the Carney crew better get busy laying some pipe!

nationalpost.com

Adam Pankratz: Venezuelan oil could put Canada out of business

If sabotage of the energy industry doesn't end now, we face impoverishment
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com
Click to expand...
Headline is a bit alarmist. If you think we're behind on infrastructure imagine building nothing new and not maintaining what you have for over twenty years, then you can imagine the situation Venezuela is in. Is there oil like ours and can it replace Canadian Oil in the Gulf ports, yes. Otherwise, the pipeline infrastructure in the US flows south from the Midwest refineries which refine the majority of Canadian Oil. In the long term, what happened Saturday morning is a threat, and another reason to increase our pipeline capacity to other markets.

In order for Venezuela to realize its potential, a lot of money needs to be spent, and some time needs to pass for that investment to be realized. And that is still an if, not a when. If China was involved, instead of the US, I'd be more worried. China at least pretends to play ball with the current players as they invest and take over more and more.
 
I agree it's too early to say what this means for Canada's oil industry, although if it helps establish some urgency around pipelines here, that's not a bad thing. It's also not entirely clear whether the US is actually planning to "run" Venezuela in the interim, or if they are going to force some form of regime change or transition to democracy. Trump seemed to be basically implying that the US will take control of the country for the time being, whereas Secretary of State Rubio has been more guarded in his comments, and Maduro's VP has been sworn in as President.

Regardless, the Americans excel at the military operation part, but as we saw in Afghanistan and Iraq, when it comes to implementing an actual "regime change", they suck at that part.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
Headline is a bit alarmist. If you think we're behind on infrastructure imagine building nothing new and not maintaining what you have for over twenty years, then you can imagine the situation Venezuela is in. Is there oil like ours and can it replace Canadian Oil in the Gulf ports, yes. Otherwise, the pipeline infrastructure in the US flows south from the Midwest refineries which refine the majority of Canadian Oil. In the long term, what happened Saturday morning is a threat, and another reason to increase our pipeline capacity to other markets.

In order for Venezuela to realize its potential, a lot of money needs to be spent, and some time needs to pass for that investment to be realized. And that is still an if, not a when. If China was involved, instead of the US, I'd be more worried. China at least pretends to play ball with the current players as they invest and take over more and more.
Click to expand...

It may not be an immediate threat, but within his term its very likely that Trump will have the resource leverage to simply stop buying Canada's only major export, either as part of NAFTA 3.0 negotiations, or maybe just out of spite..

"Sorry Canada, If you don't want to buy our jets, guess we won't be buying your oil anymore."
- Trump 2027
 
Albertasaurus said:
I agree it's too early to say what this means for Canada's oil industry, although if it helps establish some urgency around pipelines here, that's not a bad thing. It's also not entirely clear whether the US is actually planning to "run" Venezuela in the interim, or if they are going to force some form of regime change. Trump seemed to be basically implying that the US will take control of the country, whereas Secretary of State Rubio has been more guarded in his comments, and Maduro's VP has been sworn in as President.

Regardless, the Americans excel at the military operation part, but as we saw in Afghanistan and Iraq, when it comes to implementing an actual "regime change", they suck at that part.
Click to expand...

There may have been decades of civil unrest, but it didn't take long for haliburton and friends to get back into Iraq..

I highly doubt there will be any sort of occupation, the people of VZ will just be able to freely choose from any potential government that will let the US oil companies do their thing again.

But given how many people fled the country during its latest socialist phase, I have to think any change would be an improvement.

Ditto for Cuba, things are pretty grim there, and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump wants to get 'reclaimed Cuba' onto his presidential scorecard too..
 
InfrastructureEnthusiast said:
but within his term its very likely that Trump will have the resource leverage
Click to expand...
Whether they have it or not, they will think they have it. Iraq recovered to its 1990 level of production this year.

The energy literacy at the highest levels likely isn't there. This isn't wildcatting.
1767635536266.png


https://twitter.com/x/status/2007495131654476179
 
There's also this...


InfrastructureEnthusiast said:
within his term its very likely that Trump will have the resource leverage to simply stop buying Canada's only major export
Click to expand...
I suspect this will not be true. There are three years left in his term. One year left before some kind of change in his governing power, to some degree. If his term goes longer than three years, a potential Civil War is a much bigger issue than a con man's ideas of how the world works versus how it actually works.
 
Well regardless of the timelines, I don't think the Donroe Doctrine is going to end in three years. This is about economic and strategic moves that transcend party and political theatre. US 'interests' want foreign interests out of the western hemisphere.

And the taps not running at full capacity will in no way keep them from trying to use VZ oil as leverage against Canada. Reality is just a detail that can be figured out later..

Without getting lost in the weeds, if Canada wants to maximize its economic sovereignty and be able to withstand any boycott threats, better get moving on that coastal infrastructure!
 
Venezuelan oil will require massive investment from US oil majors and everyone except Chevron has pulled out completely. US oil companies are not what they were a few decades ago. They're risk adverse, similar to all the oil companies globally. They won't propose a multi-billion capital project that will take at least a decade to realize and who knows what happens to Venezuela in that time. We're a week out from Maduro being nabbed, how stable is the government and institutions there? If Venezuela was failing simply because of one leader, then it may be possible, but this kind of power vacuum often leads to even more conflict, just see Iraq and Libya. People cheered just like they are now at those authoritarian leaders being gone.

The companies are clearly trying to tamp down any expectation of any investment.
 
Trump is the biggest idiot, after the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, he thinks that he can just assume control of another country and fix all their problems? Venezuela will be an absolute shit show for the next decade, and another decade on top of that if he decides to do something with Columbia. If they get sorted out in a manner that's favourable to the US, they would then need another 20 years to update their infrastructure to effectively export oil to the US. If anything this will raise the price of our oil that I hope we then sell to China. Trump is the biggest POS ever, he's basically as trustworthy as Maduro was!
 
They're not even assuming control. There's no US proxy on the ground, there's no US presence at all. Venezuela is the same country minus Maduro. Chances are, another Maduro will emerge, just like how he was a follow on to Chavez. Oil isn't going away tomorrow, but stealing oil supplies in 2025, while allow export of their most advanced technology to an adversary is certainly.. America Something.
 
The expression that comes to mind here is "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Only in this case, the US government is the "market" - chaotic, inconsistent and self-harming policies, grabbing heads-of-state by helicopter, flip-flopping on trade and tariffs. These are all concepts of a plan, not a much of a plan in itself, at least not a coherent one that will improve the lives and wealth of people on this continent. The lack of stability can cause tremendous harm and uncertainty in itself, even if 99% of the real harmful stuff never is realized. Whether or not they get the oil or it's even cost-competitive to Canadian oil once all the transportation and infrastructure is required is kind of a secondary, long-term risk (like decarbonization, electric vehicles slowing overall demand globally in the next couple decades).

More immediate risks this Venezuela caper has reminded us is that US bluster, unpredictability and threats of interference in the politics, sovereignty and economies of everyone nearby should taken as a reality and the real problem to mitigate. Eventually economics and rationality might balance things out and calm things down, but we should continue to be planning for a world where irrationality is paramount.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top