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Calgary real estate market

Hey, I am new to this forum and need help on a matter. I was born in the suburban Richmond Hill. I am currently living in the United States but am likely going to retire and go to the GTA within the next 2 to 5 years. I come for a vacation to Ontario once in a while, I just love that place. I can't wait to retire and spent a wonderful and peaceful life there. I am greatly interested to buy a new condo in Richmond Hill now as a rental investment. I am thinking of renting it out now and make some money out of that, and I could maybe later live or not live in it upon retirement. I appreciate if you could help me out here and point me in the right direction to achieve this task with minimum risk. You guys have to consider the fact that I won't be living there for at least a few years. Buying land is too costly, I guess, but buying a new condo in Richmond Hill seems like a better prospect as I can rent it out for some income. Is working with a Canadian real estate agency necessary to manage it? If so, how do I know who to trust? How to guarantee it's kept in good shape if I can't be there most of the year? Do you think this is a good or a bad idea to do? Any warnings or recommendations would be greatly appreciated! Thank you.
 
You've stumbled into the wrong subforum @Florence . Check out https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/

You also have to think about tax liability. Buying new then renting it out can mean you are liable for capital gains when you sell decades from now and probably more importantly in the short term, not eligible for generous purchase tax rebates for owner occupied property. Unless property keeps appreciating, you could end up having lost money over those 2-5 years.
 
Cowtown said:
calgary.ctvnews.ca

Home prices in Alberta expected to rise in 2020: Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast

Homes in Calgary should go up 1.5 per cent while homes in Edmonton will rise one per cent, says market forecast.
calgary.ctvnews.ca

Home prices in Alberta expected to rise in 2020:
Click to expand...

I doubt it.

1. Unemployment remains relatively high. (Under employment or people that have 'given up' are not included in the calculation)
2. There's an oversupply of housing units
3. Provincial cuts don't help certainty or unemployment numbers
4. Migration to Calgary is still relatively low


It's not a terrible thing that prices are decreasing. The benefits are that it helps low-income people and from a purely monetary perspective, it makes this city more attractive to live in than the GTA or the lower mainland.
 
I think a good balance is prices not really going up or down, just staying steady. Even if they didn't go up, it's more attractive for people to buy if the prices stay put, and good for those who are recent buyers. There's advantages for some if it goes up or down, but prices being static is a decent compromise.
 
Morshed said:
Some good news for Calgary real estate market!
MLS housing transactions of 1,171 so far in February, show a year-over-year gain of 20.35 per cent in the Calgary resale market
Click to expand...
That 20% is a gain in volume to be clear. Number of sales. Not sale prices. Average sale price is lower, median slightly up. Listings new to the market jumped 11% last month. So there ARE properties moving, but not at increased prices. I suspect the high volume of new listings entering the market will continue this Spring/Summer.
 
With the recent announcements by Facebook that half its workforce can work from home (albeit at reduced salary), and from Shopify that they will be “digital by default”, it seems likely that the COVID-19 pandemic will be an inflection point in the growth trajectory of cities with significant consequences for real estate. This may be the digital revolution in commuting and living patterns that the internet promised but never really delivered at scale.

Here’s my initial guesses at the winners and losers if I were running a real estate hedge fund:

Buy
  • Small to mid-sized, mid-priced cities with decent airports that have a cultural or recreational appeal. (Nashville TN, Boise ID, Kelowna BC)
  • Interesting towns that are commute-able to the big city once a week or once a month. These places already tend to be more expensive than typical rural areas or exurbs, but are cheap compared to the big city. (e.g. Beacon NY, Collingwood ON, Truckee CA)
Sell
  • Expensive commuter suburbs where a lot of the appeal is tied to a manageable daily commute. (e.g. Scarboro NY, Walnut Creek CA, Elmhurst IL, Oakville ON)
Hold
  • Super cool towns that are hard to get to from the big cities. Practically I think people still will need to get to the office once in a while, so I’m not sure how much this changes their economy. (Telluride CO, Taos NM, Paia HI, Nelson BC)
  • The central cores of global cities. There will be an enduring need for face-to-face interaction at senior levels of business and government, and there will be a cultural draw to the variety that these places can provide. They probably don’t gain or lose too much from mid-career, mid-level professionals who already live in the suburbs moving even further away. (Manhattan NY, San Francisco CA, Toronto ON)
I’m hopeful that Calgary can be one of the mid-sized, mid-priced cities that can benefit from more working from home. We have the high quality of life, great access to the mountains, and a world-class airport. Convincing people that our cultural scene is exciting will be the harder part — we have been known as a place to come and work for a long time, and a mindset shift to a being a place to live first, and to work second, will take some time.

Canmore might be on the list of interesting towns that becomes more livable if you can commute once a week/month (and can skip the snowy days). However, since it is already pricier than most parts of Calgary, maybe it won't see too much uplift from work-from-home.
 
I want to buy real estate in Calgary, but for my down payment, I think I can make more money by investing that money elsewhere. What do people think?
 
Well, I think it depends on if you are looking to purely invest, or if you are looking for a home to live. And if it is the latter, is this a "forever" home, or just for the next few years?

Personally, I can see the real estate market remaining quite soft, and depending on the home type and timeframe you are looking for, financially you may be further ahead renting.
 
Gone are the days of buying real estate in Calgary and seeing significant appreciation in value within 10 years. It is pretty clear that millenials see things differently than their Gen X & Baby Boom predecessors. Millenials are not driving up demand for real estate. I don't believe we are going to see the migration to Calgary that we saw in previous decades. The attractive high paying jobs are fewer. We still have a lot of people unemployed in those fields. If you a buy a property, then you really have to consider how much maintenance/improvement you can afford to put into it in the medium to long term. You may not recover it when you sell.
 
Mountain Man said:
I want to buy real estate in Calgary, but for my down payment, I think I can make more money by investing that money elsewhere. What do people think?
Click to expand...
Like MichaelS said, buying property as a short term investment is pretty risky at the moment. In saying that, no one that bought in Calgary in the 90's regrets their investment, especially inner city. It might be worth finding a good financial advisor to run your ideas by if you haven't already.
 
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