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Calgary real estate market

I agree. Can't rely on funds and REITs to satisfy rental demand once it is no longer profitable for them. There is an equal risk in the rental boom as well. The partnerships are just in a better position to bully lenders and governments should things go bad.
 
Im going to have to disagree with that. We're talking about qualifying for mortgages twice the size required in Calgary for Vancouver and Toronto. The data consistently showed that Calgarys market was no where near heating in 2017. More recently, economists and housing experts have started giving the Bank of Canada heat for not bringing in these rules when interest rates were being slashed downwards towards record lows as it doesn't make sense now when we're headed towards neutral interests rates between 2.5%-3.5% . Ive read quite extensively on the stress rules since they were implemented as I'm doing my realtors licence on the side and have yet to find any reasonable argument as to why they were implemented federally instead of locally, instead you'll find more criticism than favourable reviews. We have politicians from city hall to the provincial legislature building advocating to drop the rules as they have done extensive damage to our local housing market. I fully support keeping the rules but locally based on market conditions rather than federally.
In effect, the stress test is already already differently in different localities. It has much less bite in Calgary as incomes are higher and property prices are lower. If you can't qualify under those conditions, just maybe you shouldn't be chasing that particular home.

That city hall politicians, who have close relationships with builders, and have made investments on behalf of builders to develop new communities want to support building is no surprise. That provincial politicians want to take out a position that has no cost to their government and only benefits to them (from frustrated people who can no longer stretch their budget as much, from construction workers, from companies) is no surprise. Support from politicians doesn't make a policy good.

Income isn't the only thing that plays a role. There are many other measures to mortgage stress rules including length of employment and employment history. The core of the rules are based around seeing if you can afford payments at ridiculously higher interest rates. As far as the damage goes, its a hinderance to home ownership. Clearly scoping out all the forums we can see projects being put on hold, falling through, or being converted into rental. This has affects on employment related to construction and development outside of just realtors and mortgage brokers. If you go back and look at the housing data by CREB, we were recording very healthy housing sales numbers post the oil crash thanks to lower interest rates. Now even that one bright segment has been hit. I personally know many friends and family holding back from buying a home due to the stress test, they simply aren't qualifying for the same size mortgage. I don't think a goal of a policy should be to deter people from home ownership. Again, I have yet to find any reasonable source or justification for these rules outside of the Vancouver and Toronto area not to mention how horribly constructed the rules are. For example, now they're considering taking home equity into account in case of situations where home owners may default. Sometimes when there isn't a problem you create one trying to fix it. That seems to be situation here in Alberta. Our soon to be premier has already stated he would fight for the removal of the stress test in Alberta and I think in terms of development, the sooner the better. Calgarys housing market is far from imploding. Just think of the folks who bought a home in Vancouver for $800k when overnight rates were under 1% by borrowing money from their friends and families for a downpayment, they will most likely get boned years from now when interest rates begin to rise even higher.
Is 5.14% or 2 points more than the rate they qualify for ridiculous? It is below the average for 2000-2010, and way below 1995-2000.

That the over-leveraging problem in Calgary wasn't as bad doesn't mean it is good.
I agree. Can't rely on funds and REITs to satisfy rental demand once it is no longer profitable for them. There is an equal risk in the rental boom as well. The partnerships are just in a better position to bully lenders and governments should things go bad.
How is there equal risk to the federal government? And if building supply isn't profitable anymore, since supply and demand are linked, by definition there isn't demand. That people would consume more housing if it had a lower price is of no consequence. It isn't like owner occupied housing is cheaper for new market entrants, except in very particular situations (like the squeeze around 2006).

@Surrealplaces Perhaps we should create a real-estate market thread and move this conversation?
 
Things are not as simple as supply and demand. It has taken housing program subsidies to get market rate rental housing built in the past. The income from current record high rates still doesn't justify building rentals. It's a speculative boom built around rising property values. Rentals have supplanted condos as the preferred investment with, IMO, condos being less speculative. The governments have bailed out institutional real estate holdings with nearly every market correction.

Incomes are higher because of the energy boom. Best case would be a longer term income correction than layoffs. The lower housing costs and wealth will still be attractive to the speculators that have driven up values in Toronto and Vancouver and are now working on Montreal. The stress test is unnecessary now. 10 years from now maybe not. 40 storeys or more towers are being proposed every week now.
 
Things are not as simple as supply and demand. It has taken housing program subsidies to get market rate rental housing built in the past. The income from current record high rates still doesn't justify building rentals. It's a speculative boom built around rising property values. Rentals have supplanted condos as the preferred investment with, IMO, condos being less speculative. The governments have bailed out institutional real estate holdings with nearly every market correction.

Incomes are higher because of the energy boom. Best case would be a longer term income correction than layoffs. The lower housing costs and wealth will still be attractive to the speculators that have driven up values in Toronto and Vancouver and are now working on Montreal. The stress test is unnecessary now. 10 years from now maybe not. 40 storeys or more towers are being proposed every week now.
I would say that largely isn't true. Long term investors of a certain class are looking for steady risk adjusted returns to match their obligations. Heck, they'll even do things like buying, not the underlying assets, but the rights to operate water utilities and roads for a fixed period (which Canadian pension funds have done). Others are looking for assets in safe harbour countries, were lower returns are justified due to lower political risk, and transparent central bank policy. For international investors, building apartments in Canada can also be a currency hedge, and the largest investors try to diversify not just their assets, but their currency exposure as well. Want to play a bet that the $CDN will return to 85 cents or 95 cents? All of a sudden your 2% return a year appreciates. The property value also doesn't have to appreciate in Canadian real terms, just in relative terms compared to their home country.

The world is awash in money that is barely making returns and sitting in near zero or negative returns government bonds. Chasing risk adjusted returns doesn't have to have comparable returns to lets say, investing in going concern corporations. When you're investing $100 billion dollars, trying to chase high returns for your entire portfolio is a risky strategy. Just like as a person ages, you switch assets over to those to fund your goal (a certain income each year), big funds know what they will need to pay out, and it makes sense to hold assets which generate steady returns to fund that income, while the rest of the fund for future obligations chases higher returns to reduce contributions needed to fund those steady returns.

Investments in real estate by these large funds is also helped on the back end - if the building is well built your amortization rate can be tiny, and if you have a very long term view, super tiny. There are very few other businesses where your productive asset is worth even 70% of the investment value after 30 years. So if you've made a 2% return over 30 years as a payout, but at 30 years you get even only a inflation adjusted 70% for your building, all of a sudden a positive cashfloow of only 2% of your investment a year gives you a nice positive Net Present value with a discount rate of 1%. Even if the asset didn't earn any returns in the mean time, if you were to hold it for 30 years, even a 35% inflation adjusted appreciation at 30 years has a positive NPV.

For smaller investors, they can be searching for short term returns for sure. But for long term investors the numbers get wonky and hard to see why the investments would be made until you compare the investments to alternatives, which are worse.
 
Man you guys are talking speaking my language. From what I can see there are a few key items missing from the discussion.

1. Cap rate compression in multi family. Next to revenue growth this is the key metrics considered when making multi family investment. Net operating income/ asset value. In markets like van and t.o where rev growth havls been strong cap rates have plummeted which has made prices increase. This has both made building new more attractive and has made markets like Calgary more appealing. We are a primary market but you can still buy or build at around a 5 cap as opposed to t.o or van which at closer to a 3 cap.

2. Demographics. Things are changing. People are staying single longer, when married they are waiting long for kids and when they have kids there are less of them. Also, due to training requirements and changing employment landscape it takes longer to establish wealth and the ability to buy ( of which the stress test doesn't help). All of these factors push People to rent for longer and want a nicer product when doing so.

So with the current rental construction boom I think there are decent fundamentals however with the amount of units being constructed we could see some market destabilization especially in the core. Of course positive job growth would help chew up the new supply.
 
I would say that largely isn't true. Long term investors of a certain class are looking for steady risk adjusted returns to match their obligations. Heck, they'll even do things like buying, not the underlying assets, but the rights to operate water utilities and roads for a fixed period (which Canadian pension funds have done). Others are looking for assets in safe harbour countries, were lower returns are justified due to lower political risk, and transparent central bank policy. For international investors, building apartments in Canada can also be a currency hedge, and the largest investors try to diversify not just their assets, but their currency exposure as well. Want to play a bet that the $CDN will return to 85 cents or 95 cents? All of a sudden your 2% return a year appreciates. The property value also doesn't have to appreciate in Canadian real terms, just in relative terms compared to their home country.

The world is awash in money that is barely making returns and sitting in near zero or negative returns government bonds. Chasing risk adjusted returns doesn't have to have comparable returns to lets say, investing in going concern corporations. When you're investing $100 billion dollars, trying to chase high returns for your entire portfolio is a risky strategy. Just like as a person ages, you switch assets over to those to fund your goal (a certain income each year), big funds know what they will need to pay out, and it makes sense to hold assets which generate steady returns to fund that income, while the rest of the fund for future obligations chases higher returns to reduce contributions needed to fund those steady returns.

Investments in real estate by these large funds is also helped on the back end - if the building is well built your amortization rate can be tiny, and if you have a very long term view, super tiny. There are very few other businesses where your productive asset is worth even 70% of the investment value after 30 years. So if you've made a 2% return over 30 years as a payout, but at 30 years you get even only a inflation adjusted 70% for your building, all of a sudden a positive cashfloow of only 2% of your investment a year gives you a nice positive Net Present value with a discount rate of 1%. Even if the asset didn't earn any returns in the mean time, if you were to hold it for 30 years, even a 35% inflation adjusted appreciation at 30 years has a positive NPV.

For smaller investors, they can be searching for short term returns for sure. But for long term investors the numbers get wonky and hard to see why the investments would be made until you compare the investments to alternatives, which are worse.

Your investment theory is always on point. Unfortunately, it doesn't really address what is really going on with the rental boom. The multi-billion dollar pensions funds have only started to express interest. They are not the driving force. These buildings are built to the minimum standards and finishes as they aren't expected to be long term investments for the private equity. The intent is to cash out selling to someone that also intents to flip the property,; a long term investor like a pension fund; a developer that will convert to condos. Calgary's market is not as speculative but, remains a huge target or is it completely shielded should real estate go bust in the rest of Canada.

The world being awash in money that is barely making returns is why Toronto and Vancouver are insanely expensive. Real estate in Canada becoming an international traded commodity inflating property values regardless of supply and demand which residents are forced to pay. That's not good.
 
Rentals as internationally traded commodities are a force for good, a huge counterweight against the psychology of individual investors of single units or a portfolio of single units, or owner-occupiers—the fear of missing out on windfall returns, or the fear of being priced out of the housing class you'd like. It is a break on runaway prices, and what is the downside? Even if they are flipped once they are finished and occupied, that is a good thing. The local developer takes the demand side risk, government/development permitting risk and the construction risk, and in exchange gets a premium. The long term investor gets an asset which is at the right portion of its life-cycle the day it appears on its books. There isn't any difference from a 35,000 feet view compared to lets say a pension fund promising to buy the asset for a fixed price once it is complete prior to project initiation. The order is different, but the effect is the same.

A rental boom even of the above model is great compared to owner-occupied and individual investor condos because the entity best able to handle risk (knowledge of potential risk, in that they are closer to the issues and have direct knowledge of their own books, and you can't BS yourself about it) is the one holding the risk. Even in the case of pure speculative rental development the at risk capital is substantial compared to the same developer building a condo. The skin in the game is a powerful economic incentive to develop a project that has a viable place in the market.

As for building to minimal standards, all those apartments built in the 60s and 70, is there any evidence they weren't built to the minimum standard? Did that make them bad as assets? I'd say no. Especially compared to condos, the information asymmetry between 1 developer and 1 investor is far narrower than the asymmetry between 1 developer and 200 investors/owner-occupiers. Even if the asset is built to minimum standards, the single investor is much more likely to know, and make proper investments to minimize life-cycle costs compared to a condo corporation.
 
Latest market outlook from CBRE has more good news. Not spectacular, but positive nonetheless, and trending in the right direction. For the 2nd straight quarter Calgary's office space has seen positive net absorption.


  • The Calgary downtown office market experienced 144,812 sq. ft. of positive net absorption in Q2 2019.
  • A significant portion of the absorption came from WeWork leasing a combined ten floors in the Edison and Stephen Avenue Place.
  • For the first time in six quarters, Class AA product recorded negative net absorption.
  • Credit defaults and capital constraints continued to take a toll on office space.
  • The amount of available sublease space decreased for the ninth consecutive quarter and now represents 25.8% of the total available space.
 
Pretty bullish for We Work, but yeah, 150K is a trickle. It's in the right direction, but a still a trickle.

I could imagine a scenario where we get to a fairly balanced ~6% vacancy in ~8 years time with absorption only slightly faster than the current pace:

2019 vacant space = ~11M sqft or ~24%
Telus Sky office = +0.5M sqft
8 years net absorption @ 200k sqft / quarter = -6.4M
16 Barron Building scale conversions / demolitions (2 per year) = -2.4M
2027 vacant space = ~3M sqft or ~6%

However, I would assume that to average 200k net absorption we need to see some quarters of 400-500k to average out the occasional sideways or backwards steps.
 
I suspect that office space absorption will pick up somewhat (I believe the oil industry will be turning around), and if it ended up a balanced market in 8 years time, I'd be happy. TBH, I don't care to see another office tower go up in the core unless it's on the Oxford site, and it's a new tallest. With a market of something like 4-6% vacancy we might see something like a mixed use tower become a new tallest, if Telus Sky can manage decent rental success.
 
Ya I wouldn't like to see anymore new office towers going up in our Core unless its going to be the next tallest building in Calgary. Our downtown does not need anymore office buildings with the exception of maybe East Village (help balance it towards being a more mixed use neighbourhood). It would be nice if somehow the City could restrict developers from building anymore future office towers/mid-rises in downtown unless they are specifically 200m+ or mixed use. If all the remaining parking lots are built out as residential and hotel towers then our downtown can still be saved from being lifeless after 5pm.
 
I wouldn't mind seeing a small office building go up in EV, or a mixed use building with 6-8 floors of office space. The balance would be good for businesses. The EV court project looked to have an office apsect, but don't know if that has changed with the high vacancy rate. Something like the CBE building would be a good fit for EV.
 

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